is today (and Last few days) comparabLe to the Tet

[sniffa]

offensive? i wasn't around then, so i can't reaLLy compare.

[sangh0]

1. IMO, no

Tet was incredibly shocking to the American people who had absolutely no (or little) idea about what was going on. At the time, the idea that a bunch of indigenous rebels could inflict serious damage on us was not even considered.

With Iraq, people are aware of the potential dangers, even if they have been misled about the details. Even if they think things are going well, they understand that there's a potential for disaster.

[fryguy]

2. I think it is

In so far as it may be a defining, or watershed, moment for the occupation. Up until now, smirkco has been able to brush off the continual attacks as the work of insurgents or remaining Ba'athist loyalists. But what the last few days show is that it is not only the Suni minority who are resisting the American occupation, but the Shi’ite majority - which was expected to support the US’s efforts to remove Saddam. The apparent rise of militia, however ill-trained as it may be, indicates a popular support for al Sadr and his anti-American rhetoric that could very well hamper any efforts to maintain order and stability in the region.

And, if support for al Sadr spreads to other areas, the US military may quickly find themselves not only defending themselves in the Suni Triangle, but throughout the whole of the country. They may soon discover there is no safe haven, or “green zones”, except for in the Kurdish north.

So while perhaps not similar to Tet militarily , which was a well coordinated country wide offensive, the events of the past few days will have a significant impact on the occupation - in much the same way as the Boston Massacre had here.

[Walt Starr]

3. Not even close

The Tet Offensive was a massive nationwide offensive with thousands upon thousands of NVA regulars seeing action in the south. It was also a miserable military failure on the part of the NVA, but it did score a major political victory for the North.

The current insurrection is nowehere near what Tet was.

[JCMach1]

7. Exactly... it also was a military disaster for NVA, but a PR coup

against the U.S.

[MinnFats]

4. similar in some respects...leaders were so so optimistic up to that pt.

Johnson and Gen. Westmoreland were talking about the 'light at the end of the tunnel' and Tet took USA and RNV forces totally by surprise.
Tet actually turned out to be a defeat for the VC and NVA, as they expended huge amounts of war material and ultimately were forced back....but the lies of the administration were exposed, and the image of NVA & NVA strolling around Saigon & onto the U.S. embassy compound with NV flags shocked the USA when they came up on American TV.
The administration believed, and let the public believe, that the NVA was on the ropes and couldn't possibly mount that kind of offensive. Once these lies were exposed, people wondered what other lies they'd been told....including many people who had never doubted the administration.
Of course, a couple of years later came the Pentagon Papers, which revealed that there had been no cause for optimism in the first place. But Johnson could not figure out a 'face-saving' exit strategy, so he kept on sending more U.S. troops and bombing the living shit out of the north..indiscriminately.

[Canuckistanian]

5. Certainly not Tet, but...

A major setback that will start many people thinking.
Politically, not as big as Tet, either. But it sure destroys the "Sunni Triangle" and "Saddam Loyalist" spinners.

[happyslug]

6. IMO No also (Even through I was to young to know what was going on)

The reason being was Tet was a well planned out attack, That had been in place for some time prior to Tet. Thus Tet is unlike what is going on in Iraq for what is happening in Iraq appears to be the result of built up TENSION not PLANNING. This riot is the result of the occupation forces NOT taking the Shiites into the Government and catering to their needs. Instead, Bremener just adopted a policy of ignoring the Shiites just like he ignored the Sunnis. Given the conditions in Iraq that is the same as punishing the Shiites.

The Shiites are thus upset, the leaders they trust the most (the Shiite Religious leadership) have been kept out of the power structure in Baghdad and they have been told to accept as their leaders the puppets we selected for them.

Given this situation the better comparison would be the race riots of the 1960s (or more recently the riots after the Rodney King Verdict in LA). Both times the riot was spontaneous and extensive (Through the blacks in the riots were NOT armed NOR did their leadership want a riot).

Thus this is more like a combination of Tet and the Race riots of the 1960s, the Spontaneousness of the Riots BUT with the leadership and planning of Tet. It will last longer than the riots of the 1960s do to the planning the leadership has done and will do.

[Jim__]

8. I don't think so

From Thanksgiving '67 through New Years '68 Westmoreland was back in the US. He appeared before a joint session of Congress and on all the major talk shows of the day. Everywhere he went he said the VC were defeated. They could not launch a major offensive in the South. He was believed and applauded everywhere he went.

Then, on Tet, the VC launched a number of simultaneous major offensives in the South. The Admisnistration and the military had been wrong about what was going on so many times; that this was the last straw. Essentially, the entire country lost faith in what they were doing.

I don't think we've reached that point in Iraq yet. But, the type of war we're trying to fight is similar. We're trying to win the people to our side. The more we're attacked, the more aggressively we respond, and the more people turn against us. In this type of war, you need solid support from the people before you go in. Obviously, we didn't have that; and, I think, we're never going to get it.

[Bandit]

9. Absolutely not

Tet was a military offensive. We were engaged with a conventional army of tremendous size and strength with modern equipment. It involved every major city in Vietnam and lasted for weeks with many major pitched battles of battalion strength or larger.

[sniffa]

10. ok,

i keep getting confLicting reports on what's happening over there today, but mostLy it aLL seems bad. do you think it wiLL have the effect that Tet had? shouLd it?

on edit: today feeLs comparabLe to 9-11 morning, when we (my work) thought that the capitoL buiLding had been bombed, and the maLL was on fire. we had heard that buiLdings were being evacuated (this is aLL around 10:00 am) so we were starting to panic. aLL the reports i keep getting have me feeLing that same panic.

[rinsd]

11. Short answer...no

Tet was a massive coordinated assault on hundreds of US & SV bases by the NVA & Viet Cong. It had seriously political implications because it shattered the myth that the end of the war was near and the taking iof the Saigon embassy showed there was no "real" stronghold in Vietnam.

Here's a wikipedia link to some info on the Tet offensive:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tet_Offensive

[happyslug]

12. More like Iran in 1979 or Paris in 1871

This revolt is more like the Paris Commune of 1871 and the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Both were spontaneous revolts in the presence of a party ready and willing and with the revolt able to lead the revolt.

In both you had a large majority of people (the working class in Paris, the Shiite poor in Iran) who had been suppressed. When both revolted the revolt was lead by a pre-existing leadership who not only were willing to lead, but knew where they wanted to lead the people. In the case of the Commune, the leadership was the Communists, in Iran it was the Shiite Religious hierarchy. Both had plans for their country and were ready willing and with the Revolt able to implement that plan.

This revolt of the Shiites in Baghdad looks more like the Paris Commune and the Iranian Revolution than it does Tet.

For more information on the Paris Commune of 1871 see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Commune

http://www.marxists.org/history/france/paris-commune/

http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/2419/pariscom.html

http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1871/civil-war-france/ch05.htm

For more Information on the Iranian Revolution of 1979

http://www.wsu.edu:8000/~dee/SHIA/REV.HTM

see:http://www.marxist.com/MiddleEast/iran79.html

http://novaonline.nvcc.edu/eli/evans/his135/Events/Iran79.htm

http://www.kean.edu/~pbabalav/iranianrevolution.htm

http://www.shellier.co.uk/iranrevolution.htm

[sniffa]

13. god damn

thank you aLL for you input.

[happyslug]

14. I forgot to mention the General Strike of 1877, Solidarity and 1917-18

Which is one of many such riots/revolution (Even the Russian revolution of 1918 is such a Riot/Revolution.


Web sites for the General Strike of 1877:

http://www.socialistappeal.org/uslaborhistory/great_railroad_strike_of_1877.htm

http://www.plp.org/labhist/wlpittsb1877.pdf

http://www.pittsburghaflcio.org/railroad.html

http://college.hmco.com/history/readerscomp/rcah/html/ah_073500_railroadstri.htm

http://www.ranknfile-ue.org/uen_1877.html

http://users.crocker.com/~acacia/text_gsif.html

http://archive.ncsa.uiuc.edu/Cyberia/RiverWeb/Projects/Ambot/Archives/vignettes/economy/RR%20Strike%20of%201877.html

http://www.plp.org/labhist/rrstrike1877.pdf

Solidarity

http://www.ce-review.org/01/27/solidarity27.html

http://www.needham.mec.edu/high_school/cur/Baker_00/2001_p6/baker_jl_al_sh_p6/solidarity.htm

The Russian Revolutions of 1917 (I found a lot about the revolution and the subsequent Civil War, but few on the actual revolution here is one site):

http://www.emayzine.com/lectures/russianrev.html


The German Revolution of 1918

http://mars.acnet.wnec.edu/~grempel/courses/germany/lectures/18rev1918.html

The point I am trying to make here is to COMPARE HOW THE REVOLUTIONS OCCUR, most of the recent Revolutions ended up being Marxist lead, but you have had a few non-Marxist revolts (Solidarity and Iran comes to mind).

Marx wrote extensively on revolutions and what caused them and how they occur. He is still the main source for information on the How and Why a revolution occurs (Through his advocacy of Communism as a revolutionary party has been dead since at least the 1940s). My point is NOT that Communism is alive (or dead) but that the pattern of how and why revolutions occur is still valid, it is just that a revolution may be anti-communist as while as communist, it may be religiously run, the key to a successful revolution is NOT who is leading the revolution but do they have the support of the people AND an idea of where to take the people.

The Shiite Leadership of Iraq has the support of 60% of the people and an idea of where to take the people. That is all you need for a revolution.

[sniffa]

15. how bout now? starting to seem more Like Tet

:cry:

[BrotherBuzz]

16. This is just the opening volley

in a long and protracted series of battles. I'm inclined to believe these battles will escalate through the June 30th date, building up to a Tet like offense, when events coalesce into a spontaneous cataclysmic mother of all battles, to coincide with the November elections in the United States. Bush* is toast.

[happyslug]

17. I disagree

I expect these battles to peak out soon, but continue for a LONG PERIOD OF TIME. That is what happen in Afghanistan, peaks and than long periods of low intensity fighting.

Before and after Teat (and Mini-Teat that followed in May 1968), the same situation occurred. a long series of low intensity combat design to wear out both the American and the South Vietnamese.

These battles were at Platoon or lower level (I.e. a Platoon is about 44 men, made up of three Squads of 12 men each with the rest in the Platoon "Headquarters" squad.

The losses will go down from what it is today, but the losses will be up from what it was last week. US deaths had been about 1 a day, expect it to be about 10 a day after this settles down into a battle between the Shiites, the Sunnis and our occupation forces.

[BrotherBuzz]

18. Perhaps...

and I don't claim ownership to a crystal ball, but I fear there will be larger battles on the horizon that will dwarf the events of today. I think your suggestion of the high and low intensity battles seems reasonable, but the size of the resistance forces will grow (thanks in part to US forces) and we can expect to see larger, or at least more battles. It will grow. I also expect to see some keen Iraqi grass-root leadership develop during this period, perhaps Moqtada Sadr, but definitely somebody will emerge. Sadly, it's going to be a hot summer for our troops.