Economists, Help

[DrDan]

The following site provides "official" numbers from the Dept of Labor.

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm

This site seems to indicate that that there has been a net increase of about 1.5 million jobs, vs. the common notion that a decrease of 2.3M-3.0M jobs has been experienced under juniors tenure.

From Civilian Noninstitutional - Employed - Not Seasonally Adjusted

Jan 01 - 136.2 million employed
Mar 04 - 137.7 million employed

What is wrong with this logic.

I understand the population is growing, but does that account for all of the difference between a gain of 1.5 million jobs vs a loss of 2.3 million jobs.

[Quetzal]

1. You might want to post it in this forum

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=114

There is more info in it here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x7638#7639

[papau]

2. Household Survey - Greenspan says numbers can not be trusted

Those are official numbers from the BLS! A survey of 60,000 homes by telephone asking "who's working, who wants to work").

Use your search function on the DU page in Economics for details on why no one but a few GOP nuts still use those numbers (most GOP do not - we all use the payroll survey numbers).

The Household survey for 20 years tracked the payroll survey - then Bush made changes - there is a cute graph posted on DU showing effect of Bush changes in 2001.

Indeed the payroll survey for March had a 300,000 job increase and a 300,000 increase in temp/part time jobs - no new full time jobs. Some suspect that even did not happen and that Bush is now playing with the payroll survey!

An average wage calculation for the part-time folks gives you less than a couple hundred a month, as I recall (please recalc before reusing this number as if it is exact as my memory sucks), so seems unlikely that those self-employed service workers really are working at anything beyond trying to get a full time job.

[DrDan]

4. thanks

I needed that info for a lively debate

I will search a bit more for some additional details

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. There are 2 surveys

the Household Survey, where your figures are from (this is a poll of citizens); and the Establishment Survey, which polls employers. For this, the figures are (unadjusted):
Jan 01: 130.4 million employed
Mar 04: 129.8 million employed
(seasonally adjusted, Mar 04 is about 1.8 million less than Jan 01).
http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm

Economists seem to argue which is more representative.

[DrDan]

5. Excellent

thanks