Poll showing Iraqis are happier now debunked

[Vladimir]

From the Guardian:

Media reports treated last week's poll of Iraqis, commissioned by the BBC, ABC News and others, as the population's definitive word on the war. "Iraqis happier without Saddam" trumpeted headlines, in response to the claim that 57% think life is better now than it was before the war. The poll of 2,737 Iraqis was carried out in February by Oxford Research International (ORI), which describes it as "a national survey" and "representative". President Bush's official blog gave it an approving nod: "Thanks to the bravery of our troops, and the principled, consistent leadership of our president, we are leaving Iraq better than we found it."

But how representative of Iraqi views is it? Western companies have conducted polls, but their findings are unconvincing. In October Zogby International and the American Enterprise magazine said they had conducted "the first scientific poll of the Iraqi public". Yet their sample was small: 600 Iraqis in Basra, Mosul, Kirkuk and Ramadi.

Polling in any post-war setting is difficult, and there are additional problems in Iraq. The UN says there is "a dearth of demographic information about Iraq's population over the past several decades". As a consequence of Ba'ath party secrecy, questions remain about the distribution of ethnic and religious groups and social classes. Iain Murray, a statistician based in Washington, says that for a poll to be representative, "matching the sample to the country's demography is absolutely key. Otherwise, you simply cannot be sure that you are not weighting the sample unconsciously towards or away from any section of society."

read the rest at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1177327,00.html

V

[zbdent]

1. Hmm, approval at the point of a gun

(sound of locking and loading, then soldier's voice):

So, are you happier under the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein, or under the loving, free, and wonderfully heavenly dictatorship of the US Marines?

Iraqi: Uh, the Marines.

[RobertSeattle]

2. SHOUT the big lie, whisper the the apology

I'm sure all the RW talking heads who spouted this last week will provide an update to their readers...

[Vladimir]

3. Its up to us to shout

I was sure as soon as the poll came out that it was at the very least flawed, but its good to read it from someone who knows a lot more about this sort of thing than I do...

V