Kerry vs. Bush polling: a three month summary.

[TruthIsAll]

POLL
AVG Bush Kerry
Jan 49.38 42.25
Feb 45.33 47.00
Mar 44.88 46.50
....................


CBS Bush Kerry
Jan 43 48
Feb 46 47
Mar 46 43


ARG Bush Kerry
Jan 46 47
Feb 46 48
Mar 43 50


IBD Bush Kerry
Jan na na
Feb 41 44
Mar 45 40


NBC Bush Kerry
Jan 54 35
Feb na na
Mar 47 45


CNN Bush Kerry
Jan 55 43
Feb 49 48
Mar 44 52


ABC Bush Kerry
Jan na na
Feb 43 52
Mar 44 53


FOX Bush Kerry
Jan 54 32
Feb 47 43
Mar 44 44


AP Bush Kerry
Jan 54 37
Feb na na
Mar 46 45


PEW Bush Kerry
Jan na na
Feb 47 47
Mar 44 48


NWK Bush Kerry
Jan 52 41
Feb 45 50
Mar 45 48

[Bucky]

1. very tight. very close

and we're gonna get some "incoming" from the Bushies these next 90 days. Strap in.

[TruthIsAll]

2. Not tight, not close. JFK is already ahead; he has the trend.

Bush scandals will explode on an ongoing basis.

Nader and undecided were not included; they will go 2-1 for JFK, at least. Nader and other will get 1%.

Look for a Kerry wipeout of Bush: 53-46-1 (that's conservative)

[Bucky]

5. Tight and close no matter how cocky we act. Let's review March numbers

CBS - Bush ahead by 3
ARG - Kerry by 7
IBD - Kerry by 5
NBC - Bush by 2
Fox - Dead heat (so much for bias theories in their polling)
Pew - Kerry by 4
Newswk - Kerry by 3

Sure it's encouraging, but it's hardly not close. Bush has had two terrible months and has only just started firing back. Over the summer Bush will get lots of good news. We'll see Iraq settled down (or unloaded) and we'll see OBL in chains or under a blanket.

By hook or, failing that, by crook we'll see numbers improving on the economy and jobs over the summer, too. Smoke and mirrors, probably, but good enough numbers to cover the base. And Bush hasn't yet started playing the gay marriage card yet.

You wanna be overconfident, fine. I'm planning for the worse. I hope I'm disappointed cause we can't afford for you to be.

[TruthIsAll]

6. No one is cocky. Just realistic. Bush lost in 2000. He will lose big time

this time.

Diebold is his only hope. Getting Osama will only give him a slight temporary bump. The millions unemployed will not be impressed if a few jobs are added; they have already felt the pain of exceeding their benefits.

The economy will improve? See the market lately? See the deficits? See the NEW medicare scandal: low-balling the cost of Medicare by 150 billion.

See the troops dying every day?
See the Dems energized?
See the Repubs declaring they will not vote for Bush?
See the myriad scandals about to erupt in a perfect storm?
See Kerry ahead and the campaign hasn't even started yet?

So, tell me, how does Bush survive this? Without Diebold or martial law?

[Bucky]

10. The Bush campaign hasn't even started yet, either

I get out into flyover country. Kerry just isn't gonna cut it with a lot of people. I'm not pessimistic, but I'm not ready to celebrate it either. I remember Dukakis being up this far--even moreso and much closer to the general election. Your enthusiasm is great. But not acknowledging what your opponent is capable of is not smart politics. Diebold is the safety net. They're gonna go to work on our people and Kerry is not doing a great job just yet in terms of controlling the agenda.

In fact, that's probably Kerry's worst asset is controlling the debate. But don't listen to me, read Josh Marshall on this.

The way I see it, we've just landed on Normandy and you're already declaring victory. Sorry, but no. First we gotta get past their artillery of advertising--and don't forget that in the airwar they out gun us by about four to one--then we gotta move into their entrenched positions on "family values" and "party of fiscal responsibilty"--and don't forget that the tag "tax and spend Democrats" still resonates in the voting public--and then we have to face their armored columns of a MUCH better organized GOTV campaign.

Plus they still have a wealth of hail marys to play, including the summer surprises (Osama's capture; the turnover in Iraq; certainly a couple of other high profile diplomatic feats in the war against profileration) all of which will give them good bounces. I'm thinking their trump card will be a prevented major terrorist strike in the fall, proving that "the right team is in charge".

Bush is never more than a firing and a good apology away from burying the Plame leak scandal. Plus he has his talking heads at Fox, half of CNN, and every Clear Channel radio station in the country. Plus he has his $200 million, which is lots more than we'll ever raise and is NOT to be discounted.

You think it's all over but the singing? I wish you were right. But you're wrong. They haven't even started on Kerry. I don't know what they'll do with Teresa Heinz Kerry, but I'll bet she'll be jealous of Hillary's soft treatment before they're done with her.

[TruthIsAll]

12. One word: Backfire. THey won't get away with a thing.

The more ads, the lower Bush goes. He is almost down to his base; he cannot regain the middle. That's JFK territory.

And an enrgized JFK base is bigger than a crumbling Bush base. There are people who have voted Republican all their lives and won't do it this time. What does that tell you?

No question. Bush is dangerous. Martial Law and/or vOting fraud. Nothing else will do it for him.

I say, yes, Kerry must pile it on. But I don't think we have a Dukakis here. Do you?

[Nicholas_J]

14. Review the state polls

Kerry is ahead in electotal votes with the 10 democratic states in which polls have been done which give him 165 electoral votes, and the 5 states which have come in as leaning republican which give Bush 55 electoral voted. There are 8 states too close to call but in the 4 largest of those states Kerry is in the lead and there are 125 EV from those states with 26 states in which no polls have been done in which there are 188 electoral votes. right now if Kerry pulls to the head in New Jersey, a state too close to tell, Kerry would have 280 electoral votes, ten over the number needed to win even with him losing the popular vote. Kerry righ now has an easier time because he has 10 states with a lot of electoral votes for sure.

Even conservative sources right now have the best case scenario right now of the electoral votes being evenly divided 269 Kerry 269 Bush.

This is very, very bad for an incumbent president.

[lancdem]

3. I believe your March IBD numbers include Nader

Bush's lead is 3, not 5, when it's Bush vs. Kerry.

[Lexingtonian]

4. you might want to group them differently

There is a significant distinction between 'likely voters' and 'registered voters' at this point.

Among 'likely voters' there are 2-3% Nader/other Third Party voters. That goes up to 6%-7% among 'registered voters' as a whole. The former set of voters is about half the electorate, the second almost all of it at this point. (Conservative pollsters prefer 'registered voters' at the moment to minimize Kerry's lead, yet emphasize the threat posed.) There is some information in the likely/registered contrast: for passive voters the Kerry and Bush support is about same split (both in the low forties, probably slight Kerry edge) as for 'likely' voters, so just increasing general voting turnout doesn't change the probably result much. But the passive equivalent of swing voters are all copping out at the moment, mostly picking Nader when they get polled....

You may also want to add Zogby's 'inverted' poll of March 4-11, where they polled by e-mail and then fit responses into their demographic model and came out with a model statistic for 'likely voters'. The result is Kerry 49%, Bush 45%, Nader 2%, Other 3% & Undecided ~2%. Head to head (i.e. Nader drops out) is Kerry 50%, Bush 45%, Other 3%, Undecided 2%. MOE around 2%.

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[TruthIsAll]

9. What's your point? These are stuffed polls?

These are all legitimate nationwide polls (with a probable Bush bias).

DU polls? What are you smoking?

[rumguy]

11. very nice - I like the overall trends...

woo-hoo!

[TruthIsAll]

13. The talking heads are lying. The three month trend is for JFK.

Today they are saying just the opposite. Because they think that by saying Bush is up, he will continue to go up.

But the numbers say otherwise. JFK is maintaining his lead. And the undecided/Nader vote will go to him, adding to his totals.

And wait until he pounds Bush on the $150 Billion Medicare lie to Congress. That is just the latest of many scandals.

And tonight on 60 minutes Richard Clarke will deliver a major blow to Bush on 9/11 and Iraq.

The talking heads are out of touch with reality; they believe their own lies.