Estimated 2004 election results

[jfkennedy]

Estimated 2004 election results if election held today for President of the United States.

All results have error factor of - or + 5 points


Clark..... 67%... Bush 33%
Dean...... 45%.. Bush 55%
Ted K... 58% Bush.. 42%
Edwards 23% Bush.. 77%
Kerry..... 39% Bush.. 61%
Sharpton 2% Bush.. 98%
Ms.Clinton 23% Bush.. 77%

Eveyone else now announced to run similar well below
what’s needed to win

[Cush]

1. um

???

[AWD]

2. Ummmm....

You actually think 67% of the people know WHO Wesley Clark is today, let alone would vote for him today???

Something tells me this isn't quite scientific.

[AWD]

7. also....

with a plus/minus 5% margin of error....does that mean your research team thinks it's possible for Sharpton to get negative-3% of the vote?

[inthecorneroverhere]

3. source?

It looks like this could be some actual polling results. It sort of makes sense to me that Clark could pull the high %age quoted.

However, I would like to know where these numbers came from.

edit: clarify

[JohnKleeb]

4. ummmmmmmmmmmm

What tells you Clark wins in the biggest landslide ever. Tell me please. Teddy K never aunnoced he was going to run/

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[inthecorneroverhere]

11. other possibility

Well, there's other possiblities, too. Could be a college freshman who pulled the numbers from some internet site, but doesn't know how to quote sources.

[whirlygigspin]

6. and this is from?

where?

2,3,4...

[tedoll78]

8. Don't give me percentages.

Give me electoral vote totals.

[joeybee12]

9. I know where he pulled those number out of...

...but it's not polite to say.

[jagguy]

10. let me guess

you polled your hampsters, or was it your fraternity ?

[ewagner]

13. Had to be

everybody knows how liberal those damned hampsters are:crazy:

[jagguy]

15. my daughter's two have Kucinich stickers on their cage

.

[JohnKleeb]

17. well maybe I could get some for the hamsters in chem tech next year lol

Hamsters for Kucinich lol.

[Il_Coniglietto]

30. ROFL!

My school has iguanas there that are pretty well known around the building. Maybe I can hook them up with something.

[jfkennedy]

12. How?

If Dean runs they will start the next war they have on the books a few weeks before election day.

If Clark runs the Republicans will be to afraid to start a war because if Clark wins they will all be fired and sent to Iraq.

[JohnKleeb]

18. How will they be afraid?

You know Clark isnt a household name and also FDR didnt even get that much in 1932.

[ryharrin]

19. who will be fired and sent to Iraq?

And why is Clark sending people to Iraq?

[DieboldMustDie]

23. Send Bush to Iraq...

I understand he still owes a year of National Guard service ;)

[w4rma]

14. Obviously you do not know how polls work. (n/t)

[SyracuseDemocrat]

16. I second that

n/t.

[Composed Thinker]

20. From where are you getting those numbers?

If you're making them up, most of them are pretty far off.

[newsguyatl]

21. alrighty

ok, reading this thread cost me 2 minutes of my life that i'll never get back :eyes:

[Nazgul35]

25. lol...

:evilgrin:

[ElsewheresDaughter]

22. did you make a wrong turn back there at the fork?

[LouKYDem]

24. Hillary... 23%??

I don't seriously think that Hillary would run in '04, but if she did, you seriously think she would only get 23% of the vote?? Polls show her numbers to be very high, even though she isn't running (at least not officially)

[newyawker99]

31. Hi LouKYDem!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[NewJerseyDem]

26. Sharpton=2%?

That is just stupid. Sharpton wouldn't do very well and would certainly lose. But, he would get more than 2%. I don't seee how you could possibly say that he would get 2%. And Bush definitely wouldn't get 98%. There would be a lot of people who would vote for a 3rd party. None of these election results make any sense at all. There are just completely random predictions that aren't even slightly accurate.

[JohnKleeb]

27. Sharpton would get at least a third imo

[SyracuseDemocrat]

28. nah

Sharpton would get more than 2%, but he would not get as much as 33 either. Fully 75% of Democrats say that they would not vote for Sharpton under any circumstances, and, no, I don't have the poll site, but just trust me on it. So if 75% of Democrats won't vote for him, no swing voters or Republicans will. By my estimate he would get about 10% of the vote.

[JohnKleeb]

29. I dont know really

but I tell you this that poll is screwed up. Kerry could beat Shrub imo and better than Clark. How does this guy expect Clark to win in the biggest election in history if he is not a household name even.

[ShaneGR]

32. Did you get these results from Alabama or what?

Gees, talk about wharped.

[VoteClark]

33. I agree, except I think Hillary would do a little better

[CMT]

34. my estimate for all the democratic candidates

if they run a hard-hitting campaign based on Bush's blunders on the economy, record deficits, depleted retirement accounts, health care, and foreign policy mishaps:

Dem nominee: 51%
Bush: 47%
Others: 2%

Electorally I think if Dems win 51/47 they carry (a 4-5 million vote margin)
New York
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Vermont
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
DC
Maryland
Florida
West Virginia
Illinois
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Michigan
Ohio
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii
New Mexico
Nevada
Arizona

A electoral vote landslide.

Plus I think a five-million vote Democratic victory in the popular vote would win us back the Senate by picking up GOP seats in:
Pennsylvania
Alaska
Illinois
Missouri
Colorado

and holding our own losses in the south to a minimum.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. You'd Have To Go Back To 64 For the Dems to Get >50.5% of the vote.

This election is going to be tough.

Bush has money

the presidency

an Electoral College bias that favors small states.

[CMT]

41. perhaps but

look at the GOP percentages since 1992:
Bush I 37%
Dole 41%
Bush II 48%

Of course in '92 and '96 there was a significant third party challenge. However, Bush is the incumbent and with his poor record on the economy and on Iraq I could easily see him retain most of his 2000 support but fall back a point to 47% and the dems who had 48% in 2000 could rally Naderites and people who are disgusted with Bush's record and gain three points.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. I'm Afraid If We Have A Serious Discussion It Will Get Lost in This Thread

I tend to agree it will be a close race. Chimpy has lots of structural advantages as I noted. He obviously has some disadvantages too. I give a small edge to Bush. The three major variables are

1) the state of the economy

2) national security

and

3) our candidate (duh)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. What grade are you in?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Cept For the Legacy Teddy and Kerry Are Clones

and Teddy wallops Bush while Bush wallops Kerry.

[Walt Starr]

38. Source please

Otherwise these are just bullshit numbers you made up.

We cite sources for these things on DU.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. I Want What He's Smoking

[Walt Starr]

40. He posted this more than 20 minutes ago

and still no source, no link.

I'll give him ten more minutes before I alert on giving bogus poll results.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. He Never Said He Didn't Make It Up

Friends don't let friends surf the net drunk


lol@me

[Rooktoven]

44. Though I support drug legalization...

Smoking crack before posting isn _not_ recommended...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. I wish he would get a new screen name too