Kerry leads Bush 48-44 in latest Pew poll

[lancdem]

It was tied 47-47 two weeks ago. BTW, the most interesting part to me is that Kerry's hardcore support (38 percent) tops Bush's (33 percent).
It's unusual for the challenger to have his party united behind him this early. It allows him the luxury of going after swing voters while Bush is still trying to appease conservatives (see: gay marriage amendment).

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=205

[Mr.Green93]

1. Kerry will lead wire to wire.... (imho)

[Zero Gravitas]

2. It will be very close

but I do beleive that things are in our favor. The election will be a referendum on War-President Bush so his record will be the key issue (along with jobs.) However they will play dirty so we can't afford to let up until the last poll closes on Election Day. I do have the occaisonal fantasy of a landslide, but it will never happen, if it looks like a shoe-in for Kerry, the smug, sanctimonious do-nothing Naderites will vote for Bush in swarms... er I mean vote for "Nader".

[Lexingtonian]

3. Sounds about right

Just about all the pollings since January seem to me, when I take 3% of Undecideds as Third Party voters and do the standard 2:1 split of the remaining Undecideds for the challenger (Kerry) to converge on the same numbers at their root. It's 51% D/Kerry, 46% R/Bush, 3% 3rds within 1-2% each time. Unbelievably consistent.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

4. is this a two-man race poll?

or does it include third parties?

and how recent is this info?
i'm not trying to dispute your post or anything, i'm just curious

[Rowdyboy]

5. Very interesting poll...

The only places that threaten us are

a) a strong economic comeback would be hard to dismiss
b) We are seriously out of synch with the public on gay marriage

[Zynx]

6. I think we will win the GE by 4 with the two party vote 52 to 48