|
My Preview of the 2004 Senate
With 2004 Presidential election looming, the Medias interest in Senate elections appears to be waning. Senate is no longer tied and Republicans have a “switch proof majority.” This lack of drama will also make it harder for candidates to fundraise. Normally Senate races are fought on local issues but in 2002 the media reminded voters daily that each seat had a chance do change the out come of the Senate. Moderate Republicans who normally would vote for a Democrat stayed loyal to Bush. Republicans expect to reap the benefits of Bush’s coattails. The states that I predict will have the closest elections are the following, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Oklahoma, Alaska, Illinois. Three of the closest races are deep in the heart of the south. All three of these are open seats with the Democratic incumbent retiring. Republicans will likely win at least one out these three elections. The remaining 3 Senate seats are in solid Bush states, Oklahoma and Alaska. The final seat is in Illinois where Republican Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring. This seat is in a solidly Democratic state. This is an almost certain pick-up for Democrats.
North Carolina (D): On September 7, 2003, Democratic Senator and Presidential candidate John Edwards announced he would not run for reelection. After Edwards decision, North Carolina Democrats turned to there failed 2002 Senate nominee to Erskine Bowles to run. He will have to face Republican Congressman Richard Burr. My prediction: GOP leaning
Revised Prediction: Toss up
South Carolina (D): This summer, Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings announced he would not run for reelection. He has been represented South Carolina in the Senate since 1966. Democrats recruited a strong candidate in Inez Tenenbaum. She was able to survive the GOP sweep in 2002 and be reelected State Superintendent of Education with 59% She will face Republican congressman Jim DeMint My Prediction: Toss up.
Georgia (D): Democrats in Georgia are in disarray after the upset loss of the Governorship and Max Cleland’s Senate seat. When Zell Miller announced that he would not run for reelection Republicans rejoiced. Republicans believe this is the last step before the y gain complete domination of Georgia. Demoralized Democrats were turned down by Andrew Young and this moment have not gotten there first tier, second tier or even third tier candidates to run.
My prediction: Likely GOP pick-up
Oklahoma (R): After spending 24 years in the Senate, Republican Senator Don Nickles announced he would retire. This is bad news republicans who will now have to defend a previously safe GOP seat. Democratic Congressman Brad Carson, a Rhodes Scholar and the House’s only Cherokee Indian, is running to replace Nickles. Mayor Kirk Humphreys is the GOP candidate. Oklahoma is already looking forward to its first close Senate election in years.
My Prediction: Toss Up
Alaska (R): In 2002 Frank Murkowski retired from the Senate and ran for governor. He won the gubernatorial election and then promptly appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to his Senate seat. Alaskans were out raged and view this as a form of nepotism. With out any nudging by eager Democrats, Former Governor Tony Knowles jumped into the race this summer. Murkowski may have to face not only Knowles but also vicious primary with angry Republicans. This is another race worth watching.
My Prediction: Toss up
Illinois (R): Embattled GOP Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring after only one term. The vulnerable Republican Senator probably feared he would lose election. In 2002 Democrats captured the Governor’s mansion for the first time since 1976. Illinois is not only a liberal state it is also trending left. Republicans will need either an extremely bloody Democratic primary or Bush to winning in a landslide, if they hope to hold on to this seat.
My Prediction: Likely Democratic Pickup
Florida (D): Bob Graham is retiring after a failed run for president. Peter Deutch is favored to win the Democratic nomination. Former GOP Rep. Bill McCollum is the most probable GOP candidate. With a Presidential campaign looming and a weak field of Democrats and Republicans this will be a nightmarishly tight election.
Update: Rep. Katherine Harris is on the verge of jumping in to this race.
Liberals hate her as much as conservatives hate Sen. Hillary Clinton
My Prediction: Toss Up
Louisiana (D): John Breaux is retiring from the Senate, so he can pursue a lucrative lobbying career. On the Democratic side, Rep. Chris John is expected to run. Former Attorney General Richard Ieyoub is also considering a run. On the Republican side, Rep. David Vitter is expected to run. Failed Gubernatorial Candidate Bobby Jindal and Suzie Terrell could also jump in to this race
My Prediction: Toss Up
South Dakota (D): Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle is the only non-appointed senator any tough race. Former Rep. John Thune (R), the GOP’s strongest possible candidate, is running against Daschle. In 2002, Thune came 524 votes away from defeating Sen. Tim Johnson. Daschle is vulnerable, because he can easily be painted as another “Washington Liberal.” Thune will charge that Sen. Daschle has failed to convince his fellow Democrats to support an ethanol provision in the energy bill. Thune is all aided by the added bonus of being able to run on the same tick as Bush.
My Prediction: Slightly leans GOP
States that might have competitive races: Pennsylvania, Washington, California,
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(119 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
