Political Outlook in November

[Donovan_McNabb]

We're in the election year now and being the junkie I am, I thought I would post my analysis of how the race is going to be shaping this year up. It's a bit long, but somewhat informative.

Close Bush Wins in 2000:

Arizona by 6 pts
Arkansas by 6 pts
Florida by less than a pt
Missouri by 4 pts
Nevada by 3 pts
New Hampshire by 1 pt
Ohio by 4 pts
Tennessee by 3 pts

Close Gore Wins in 2000:
Iowa by 1 pt
Michigan by 4 pts
Minnesota by 2 pts
New Mexico by less than a point
Oregon by less than a point
Pennsylvania by 4 pts
Washington by 5 pts
Wisconsin by less than a pt

States to watch:
Louisiana (last bastion of the Democratic Party in the Deep South)
Virginia
West Virginia
(all Bush wins in 2000)

Final Electoral Tally in 2000:
Bush 271
Gore 267

If Bush wins all the states that he won in 2000 and the Dem wins all the states Gore won, the final tally in 2004 due to shifts in the electoral values of each state:
Bush 278
Dem 260
Of course, this is a new year, and there are new trends in the map.

Oppurtunities for Bush:

Iowa is a good target for the White House. Unfortunately, Iowa is a big manufacturing state, and has lost 30,000 jobs since Bush took office, so Iowans may be attracted to the Democrats' protectionism. The Democrats have the governorship, which gives them a
slight advantage. Remember that farm bill? This is where that comes in. If Bush pushes that horrible energy bill through the Senate, it'll help him as well. But he's going to have to fight for this state. Job losses in Minnesota have been light, the Republicans have the governorship, if I were to bet now I would say this state will go into the Bush column in November. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has lost a ton of jobs in the manufacturing sector, and the Democrats moved into the governor's office in 2002. The Dems may hold this state. In all of these states, Gephardt is a threat.


Michigan is trending Democratic. I'm writing off Oregon and Washington as blue states, even though they were close in 2000. There MAY be an oppurtunity in New Mexico, but with such a popular Democratic governor and a big Hispanic population its unlikely. Bush may have to let Pennsylvania go after the steel tariff ordeal, that state is looking more and more blue every day.

States Bush needs to defend:

The steel tariffs and the horrific job losses in Ohio and West Virginia are a major concern to the Bush camp. Nevada Arizona are concerns because of growing Hispanic populations. New Hampshire is usually a dovish and secular state, but its only 4 electoral votes.

Florida has led the country in job creation, Jeb is relatively popular and so is the President. The state is trending Republican, and Bush can win it again in 04. However, if Graham is picked as a running mate to the nominee, it might be a tough race.

As for the rest of the south (Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Virginia, Tennessee) it will largely depend on the Democratic ticket. If it's Dean, he better have a running mate from the South or he can forget about this region. Most strategists think that the nominee should forget about the South anyways, some of these states are winnable but it's an uphill battle and the time is better spent in the Midwest or the Southwest.


So the battleground states are, in my opinion: Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, West Virginia, Nevada, and Arizona. New Mexico is a possibility. Of course, if job creation picks up dramatically and Iraq is peaceful than these states dont matter. Bush will win in a landslide.

Hope that helps! Take care.

[blondeatlast]

1. It doesn't but thanks anyway.

Hope the screen door didn't hit you.

[foreigncorrespondent]

2. Um!

Why is this post in favor of the wanker-in-chief on a democratic forum?

[blondeatlast]

3. OP has been tombstoned. (B@L bows . . .)