What effect would a third party candidate have now?

[Cannikin]

MSNBC just ran all of their polls. They were for overall handling of the war, was the country headed in the right direction, and did Bush deserve to get re-elected. All the polls were about 10% in Bush's favor.
Would a third party hurt or help at this time?

[bryant69]

1. Depends on where it popped up.

I assume by help, you mean, help get President Bush out of the White House.

If a Conservative Religious party popped up--nativist too, they could split the Republican vote possibly. Splintering off some of those who think that President Bush is too liberal (and this would be a group that are more active voters and supporters, so their departure would hurt President Bush's reelection more than one would think).

On the other hand, it's hard to imagine a left wing party effort that wouldn't peel off a bunch of Democratic support.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[rogerashton]

2. Depends, of course.

Remember: Clinton did not get a majority of the popular vote in '92. Perot got the difference. Those who voted for Perot seem to have been: economically nationalist, internationally unilateralist, and moderate (or indifferent) on social issues. Clinton was economically internationalist, multilateralist, and somewhat liberal on social issues. George H. W. Bush was neither/nor on the first two, and to the right on social issues. Had he not been the incumbent president of a major party, I wonder if he could have been seriously in the race at all.

George W* Bush's "compassionate conservatism," a design to do everything (he feels that) his father failed to do, was aimed pretty squarely at the Perot vote, at least until the last few weeks. This forced the democrats to contest the center and thus opened the left.

Nader's vote was the largest that a left third party candidate had gotten in generations. Yes, a left third party candidate with that kind of success would make a Democratic win very difficult; but similarly, a realistic alternative for the Perot voters could hurt the Pubs very badly, and might happen if the gaestarbeiter (the German original for "guest worker") initiative goes forward.

I think that left vote will be in the Democratic party in '04 for just about anybody except, possibly, Lieberman.

[phillybri]

3. Pat Buchanan could put a serious dent in Bush's chances...

Anti-deficits, anti-immigrant, anti-Iraq war.

A lot of freaks would vote for him!

:evilgrin:

[Cannikin]

5. We can only hope!

[doc03]

9. Pat Buchanan would hurt us

Pat Buchanan would take a lot of labor votes. Pat Buchanan opposes NAFTA and immigration which is very poplar with labor. In fact in
this area the Independent Steelworkers endorsed him last time. The
USWA will always endorse the Democrat but the rank and file don't
necessarily pay any attention to the union leaders. As far as I know
Kucinich and Gephart are the only ones that oppose NAFTA and I don't think either one opposes the illegal immigrantion. Myself I can't see
how anyone could be pro labor and defend illegal immigration.

[mouse7]

4. A Moral Majority party would be a lovely thing

Falwell nominee of the Moral Majority Party. I'm all for it.

Good Luck Jerry!

[Cannikin]

6. Ok..as a gay man, I'd have to oppose that..

I oppose anyone who tells me I'm going to hell.

[library_max]

7. You're not getting it.

The hope and reasonable expectation is, that such a party would go down in flames and take the Republicans with them.

[Cannikin]

8. I gotcha! I was just imagining living under the rule of Falwell...ugh.