Iraq'd-Next Stop Kirkuk

[LiviaOlivia]

Iraq'd
by Spencer Ackerman
11-22-04


NEXT STOP KIRKUK: Mosul is now in essence independent from the central government and at war with itself. Thanassis Cambanis of The Boston Globe recently observed that the real power in the city derives from "a constellation of groups--insurgents and Arab nationalists on the west bank of the Tigris River, Kurdish political parties and militia on the east bank, and Turkomen in pockets throughout the city." (Thanks to Eric Umansky.) The stars do not happily exist in that constellation: Just today, a leading figure in the Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars was assassinated in the city. The multiethnic Mosul, once considered a model city, is fast becoming Sarajevo.

That won't be anything compared to Kirkuk. As George Packer recently wrote, given the fervent and competing claims on Kirkuk, that city could truly be where the first shots of the Iraqi civil war are fired. (Though it could be contended that Iraq is in the midst of a civil war now, I'd argue that what's been happening over the last several months has put Iraq more into the category of failed state--where the government exists largely on paper and various factions have consolidated control over competing centers of power--while the Hobbesian civil war is just over the horizon.) According to today's edition of the London-based Arabic-language newspaper Azzaman, the battle lines are getting drawn in Kirkuk as we speak:

Tribal leaders in the Haweeja district of Kirkuk province have decided to kill those armed groups trying to infiltrate the district for any reason. More than 100 tribal leaders and notables decided to end the armed scenes in the cities, asking the multilateral forces to stay away from the city lest they provoke the residents. They guarantee to settle security, stability and to start rebuilding the city.

Haweeja is a principally Arab enclave of Kirkuk. The "armed groups" that these "tribal leaders" are vowing to kill are Kurdish pesh merga guerillas who are already a significant presence in the city and U.S. troops who right now aren't. And the way these Arab notables "guarantee to settle security" is sure to be provocative to the Kurds, who view Kirkuk as their Jerusalem. The way things are shaping up, Iraq won't be lacking for Sarajevos.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/iraqd