[PINR] Nov. 10, 2004: Al-Qaeda and the Islamic Revolutionary Movement

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

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November 10, 2004:

Today's analysis is an in-depth piece on the threat posed by al-Qaeda and the larger Islamic revolutionary movement to U.S. interests.

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"The Threat of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic Revolutionary Movement"
Drafted by Erich Marquardt on November 10, 2004
http://www.pinr.com

On October 29, 2004, al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden released a new videotape, revealing the first images of the leader in more than a year. The video offered proof that bin Laden is alive and healthy with access to modern technology. The resurgence of Osama bin Laden emphasizes the threat still posed by Islamic revolutionaries to the United States and its interests.

- Bin Laden Applauds U.S. Response to September 11 Attacks

Bin Laden is undeterred by the Bush administration's response to the September 11 attacks on the United States. Washington's destruction of the Taliban government in Afghanistan and its increased influence in the Middle East gained through the invasion and occupation of Iraq have not, according to bin Laden, adversely affected al-Qaeda in any significant manner. In fact, bin Laden's October 2004 video quoted him as saying that the results of the September 11 attacks -- results that include the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, in addition to U.S. attacks on Islamic revolutionaries worldwide -- have been "positive and enormous, and have, by all standards, exceeded all expectations."
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- Striking the U.S. Economy

Bin Laden understands the tremendous effect that fear -- a byproduct of the use of terrorism as a political and military tactic -- has on the population of the United States. As argued by bin Laden in the past, "Terror is the most dreaded weapon in the modern age...It can add fear and helplessness to the psyche of the people of Europe and the United States. ... You can understand as to what will be the performance of the nation in a war, which suffers from fear and helplessness."
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- Al-Qaeda's Recruiting Prospects

The major reason why the invasion of Iraq, provided it continues along its present course of instability, will accelerate al-Qaeda's political agenda is because the U.S. has failed to address the motives behind al-Qaeda's attacks on the United States and its allies. Bin Laden has repeatedly stated his reasons for starting and continuing his attacks against U.S. interests. As stated by Michael Scheuer, the former head of the Central Intelligence Agency's unit on Osama bin Laden, "bin Laden's attacks are meant to advance bin Laden's clear, focused, limited, and widely popular foreign policy goals: the end of U.S. aid to Israel and the ultimate elimination of that state; the removal of U.S. and Western forces from the Arabian Peninsula; the removal of U.S. and Western military forces from Iraq, Afghanistan, and other Muslim lands; the end of U.S. support for the oppression of Muslims by Russia, China, and India; the end of U.S. protection for repressive, apostate Muslim regimes in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan, et cetera; and the conservation of the Muslim world's energy resources and their sale at higher prices."
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- Bush Administration Maintains Past Policies

Following the September 11 attacks, the Bush administration made a decision to not only remain steadfast in its pursuit of traditional U.S. foreign policy, but to escalate it. For example, the United States has not only continued to support the state of Israel, but has remained especially silent on Israel's controversial treatment of its Palestinian population and its continued violation of U.N.-sponsored demands to release territory that is considered occupied. While the United States has removed U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia, it has not removed them from the region; the U.S. command center that was in Saudi Arabia simply relocated to Qatar, and the presence of U.S. military personnel in the region is astronomical as a result of the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
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- Bin Laden's Grievances are Central Pillars of U.S. Interests

All of the above grievances about U.S. foreign policy held by the al-Qaeda leadership are central pillars of U.S. interests. Because of this, it will be very difficult for the Bush administration to alter any of them. These policies are very much responsible for the United States' status as a superpower and for its success as a state.
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- Bin Laden's Military Plan

Since September 11, bin Laden's al-Qaeda network has not attacked the United States directly. Nevertheless, there have been regular attacks on U.S. interests abroad, in addition to the interests of countries that support U.S. policy. There are two explanations behind the lack of attacks on the U.S. homeland: either al-Qaeda is preparing for a future attack and waiting for the right opportunity to strike, or al-Qaeda lacks the operational capability to do so.
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- Conclusion

The threat to U.S. interests posed by Osama bin Laden, the al-Qaeda network, and the Islamic revolutionary movement as a whole is a reaction to U.S. foreign policy in the Muslim world. The U.S. has pursued relatively static interests in the Middle East for decades, interests that are central pillars in America's present status as a superpower. These interests are now clashing with the aspirations of the Islamic revolutionary movement, which seeks to resist U.S. policies in the Muslim world that are perceived as discriminatory to Muslims, whether as an intentional or unintentional result of U.S. policies.
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complete report at http://www.pinr.com
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