Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.comcontent@pinr.com
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October 29, 2004:
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"Syria's Shift to Retrenchment"Drafted by Dr. Michael A. Weinstein on October 29, 2004
http://www.pinr.comGoverned by the last Arab socialist regime in the Middle East, Syria has suffered a diminution of power in the region since the fall of the Soviet Union. As capitalist globalization has proceeded, the ruling Ba'ath Party, under the leadership of Hafez al-Assad and now his son Bashar, has downplayed its socialist rhetoric, but it has not integrated Syria fully into the international market system and has distanced itself from U.S. Middle Eastern policy, leading to relative isolation.
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- Geostrategic Complications
The Assad regime's vital and overriding interest in maintaining its rule as it adapts to globalization is adversely impacted by Syria's geostrategic position, which has worsened recently. Having faced for decades a hostile neighbor to its west in Israel, which occupies Syria's strategic Golan Heights, Damascus has also encountered an American adversary on its eastern border since the U.S. occupation of Iraq. Although the Syrian and Iraqi wings of the Ba'ath Party had been rivals in many respects, the two regimes had pursued a common policy of non-cooperation with Israel and the United States. The abandonment by Libya of its nuclear weapons program in 2004 and its subsequent intensification of ties with the West eliminated Syria's last partner in confrontation. Syria is the sole remaining Arab confrontation state.
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- Resolution 1559 and its Consequences
In May, 2003, Washington began its pressure on Damascus to meet its demands by imposing limited economic sanctions on Syria that were aimed at preventing American businesses from setting up in the country and that were widely seen as symbolic, since Syrian economic relations with the globalist powers are oriented toward Europe, not the United states. The matter remained there until late summer of this year, when Washington found the opportunity to internationalize the pressure.
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- Political "Crisis" in Lebanon
Independently of triggering American and French pressure, the move to extend Lahoud's term sparked instability in the fragile and complex Lebanese political system. Home to seventeen distinct religious groups that are further split by cross-cutting ethnic divisions, Lebanon is the most cosmopolitan and commercially advanced society in the Arab Middle East. The delicate political balance necessary to compose its diversity has been provided by a unique constitutional system in which the confessional groups are guaranteed fixed representation in government -- for example, the president is a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of parliament a Shi'a Muslim. Within the system of confessional representation, democratic elections are held and contested by coalitions.
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- Opening to Europe
While international and domestic moves were playing out over Lebanon, Damascus signed on to an "Association Agreement" with the European Union on October 19 as part of the projected Euro-Mediterranean free trade zone scheduled for 2010. The pact had been delayed by negotiations over clauses renouncing weapons of mass destruction that ended in the compromise of Damascus agreeing on cooperation to counter weapons proliferation. The agreement includes a $100 million aid package to advance economic reforms and a number of trade liberalization measures. Syria, through its oil exports, is the only Mediterranean associate to run a regular trade surplus with the E.U., which is its largest trading partner.
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- Conclusion
It is not clear whether or not Damascus's shift toward confrontation and away from concession will succeed in fending off U.S.-led efforts to get it out of Lebanon and change the Middle Eastern balance of power; and, in the longer term, maintaining Ba'ath Party rule. With two more powerful adversaries on its borders, Damascus counts on competitors of the United States on the world stage to lend it limited diplomatic support, and on the European Union to continue to expand economic relations. The role that France will play in those calculations remains uncertain. Damascus will try to wait out the storm, banking on U.S. unwillingness to try to effect regime change militarily. If Lebanon stabilizes after the 2005 parliamentary elections, the prospects for Damascus will improve and the American threat is likely to recede.
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complete report at
http://www.pinr.com- The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of inquiries@pinr.com. All comments should be directed to content@pinr.com.
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