Gailey: Kerry has one advantage:He's not Bush

[dand]

Democrats need to get a grip on themselves. John Kerry is not down for the count. He still has a good chance of capturing the presidency on Nov. 2, even though the percentage of Democrats who believe this has fallen from 66 to 43 according to the latest poll by the Pew research Center for the People and the Press.

In many ways, Kerry has been a terrible presidential candidate- don't even ask me to explain his position on the Iraq war- who for too long has offered voters little more than his war biography and nuance. But he is the only alternative to president Bush, and that's why the 2004 election is still in play and why the Bush campaign should be worried.

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/19/Columns/Kerry_still_has_one_a.shtml

[shockingelk]

1. here's the way I think about it

The methodologies of the polls were seeing is probably flawed, even disregarding the common complaint about newly registered voters being underrepresented:

Pretend you're someone who doesn't like Kerry, but despises Jr and is committed to ousting him from the White House:

Who will you vote for?
Kerry.

When was the last time you voted in a presidential election?
1988

Would you describe your support for Kerry as strong, with some hesitations or weak?
Weak.

How interesting do you find this election, very interesting, somewhat interesting or not interesting at all?
Not interesting at all.

Any of the answers given to those questions may eliminate the subject from the pollsters definition of a "likely voter" ... but they will still show up and vote for anybody but Bush. In other words, Kerry.

Besides, the most recent ABC/WP poll found 75% of people described their support for Kerry as "strong" even those 55% said their vote was more "against Bush".

Only 14% said their vote for Jr was "against Kerry" - Kerry has a 41 point advantage in the "anger factor".

[comradebillyboy]

2. good analysis

kerry needs to be more than the un-bush

as bad as bush is, kerry still needs to tell the voters in PLAIN ENGLISH why he is better

[LisaL]

4. Just the fact that Kerry can speak English should be enough.

[nyhuskyfan]

3. I'm getting sick of the media talking point here...

Kerry's position on Iraq has been consistent, although certainly rational people may disagree with it. He felt that the president needed "the big stick" of the threat of force, in order to best engage in negotiations and diplomacy. He said on the floor of the senate when he cast his vote (I believe he even said the words, "Let me make this perfectly clear") that he was in favor of force only as a last resort after all efforts of diplomacy had failed, with the help of our allies, and with a plan to win the peace. He has said that he would have still voted for the IWR, but that he would have done almost everything differently from that point on. He would have given the inspectors more time, he would have brought more of our allies to the table, and he would have engaged in more diplomatic measures before resorting to the big stick.

I don't understand why this is so difficult for the media to grasp.

[glitch]

5. People, media and otherwise, who don't want to grasp it, won't. nt