Nate Silver: It’s All Over but the Face-Saving?

[chill_wind]

July 27, 2011, 3:10 pm
It’s All Over but the Face-Saving?
By NATE SILVER

It remains unclear whether the House will pass a bill by the speaker, John A. Boehner, to raise the debt ceiling, though prospects appear to be significantly better today than they did yesterday. Still, the math looks to be pretty close.

(snip)

Instead this looks to be mostly a matter of face-saving. Mr. Reid’s bill would prevent Mr. Obama from either having to exercise a veto on a short-term extension of the debt ceiling, as he has repeatedly threatened — or from having his bluff called. Mr. Boehner’s bill would spare him the indignity of having to concede to a Democrat’s approach — even though, on policy terms, Mr. Reid’s bill looks more like a win for Republicans than a loss.

So we’re basically debating who gets the last bit of egg on his face — Mr. Boehner or Mr. Obama. (At this point, each already has more than enough to make a soufflé.)

Does that imply, by the way, that the crisis is likely to be resolved one way or another?

Probably. Markets are off again today, but I think they may be misreading the news.

(snip and cutting to the chase):

We still have a ways to go, but in my view the possibility of a debt default has substantially declined.

from: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Big Blue Marble]

1. I like Nate's analyses,

but that was a very depressing read or should I say Reid. Either way it looks like the
Republicans walk away from this with more wins and the Dems caved again.

The country loses in short term with cuts that endanger the economy and in long term with
a Super Congress that most likely will cut entitlements.

[msongs]

2. washington DC dems are pretty much morons at this point lol nt

[slipslidingaway]

3. knr nt

[SkyDaddy7]

4. How he comes up with the idea the chances of default...

have "substantially declined" is nothing short of a guess. I respect his calls on elections but this is different. I hope he is correct but how Reid's bill gets through both Houses is beyond me & I seriously doubt Boner's bill would either. We will see!

And Obama with "egg on his face"? That is cute! Sounds like he simply disagrees with Obama & what he offered the Republicans...That has nothing to do with having egg on his face in the eyes of most Americans. Obama tried for the balanced approach that Wall Street, the Ratings agencies, most economist, the bi-partisan Gang of Six & especially the American People to include 57% of Republicans wanted...That is far from "egg on his face" when this is all over.

If you disagree with what Obama allegedly offered the Republicans then by default you have to agree he did far more than the Republicans have done in the way of trying to compromise...Because the GOP has done NOTHING! And despite what many of us here on DU want the American people are more interested in a compromise even if it means people might not agree with everything within the compromise. That is unless you think the polls are wrong.