New recession begins next year, Shilling says

[xchrom]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-recession-begins-next-year-shilling-says-2011-06-24

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Rough patch or double dip?

That’s the debate going on these days from executive offices to the local malls. Business owners, workers and, yes, even economists are trying to decide whether the U.S. economy has hit a speed bump or is heading for a collision.

We all know growth is tepid, unemployment is a bear and housing, well, stinks. That’s why major Wall Street firms, the International Monetary Fund and, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve all slashed their estimates for U.S. GDP growth this year.

Housing remains critical, so I looked up one of the few people who saw the housing bust and financial crisis coming years before they happened: Gary Shilling, economist and author of “The Age of Deleveraging.” While his steadfast bearishness didn’t surprise me, his blunt assessment did.

“I’m predicting another recession next year,” he told me.

[onenote]

1. the same gary schilling that predicted stocks would crash in late 2009 or early 2010?

For those who don't recall, the stock market bottomed out in spring 2009 and began a rally that has brought it back to the 12,000 level. Oh, and this is the same Gary Schilling that, in 2009 recommended buying dollars because they would soon reach parity with Euros. At the time it cost $1.35 to buy a Euro. Today its $1.44. Oops.

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-gary-2010-2

[xchrom]

4. World economy set to face more frequent shocks

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/world-economy-set-to-face-more-frequent-shocks-2303761.html

for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has identified five "global shocks" that will destabilise the world economy with increasing frequency in coming years.

Rather than the traditional perils of conquest, war, famine and death, the OECD identifies viral pandemics, cyber attacks, financial crises, socio-economic unrest and geomagnetic storms as the five "global shocks" that will have to be endured.

The OECD, which comprises the world's advanced economies, said: "Disruptive shocks to the global economy are likely to become more frequent and cause greater economic and societal hardship." This, the organisation says, is because of the "increasing interconnectivity" of the world economy and the speed with which people, goods, services and data travel, so shocks are more rapidly transmitted throughout the world. The financial crisis of 2008 was the first such episode when, after Russia, China and India had rejoined a globalised world economy connected by the web, the failure of Lehmans triggered an instantaneous and simultaneous global collapse in confidence. At that point everything from Brazilian new car sales to Japanese share values "fell off a cliff".

The OECD highlights how a pandemic similar to the outbreak of Sars in 2002 could spread quickly and with devastating effect in Asia's "megacities" such as Dhaka, Manila and New Delhi. New antibiotics are "desperately needed to keep pace with the rising development of bacteria that are drug-resistant," the report adds.

No less frightening would be a large geomagnetic storm. Noting the increasing incidence of extreme natural disasters such as tsunamis, hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that have cost hundreds of thousands of lives and billions of dollars, the OECD puts the less familiar phenomenon of geomagnetic storms in a similar category.




make of it what you will.

[marmar]

5. Yep.......Same with energy.

In "The End of Suburbia", the featured analysts in the movie talked about how decreasing and more expensive oil will result in more frequent and severe recessions, until it becomes a more enduring depression.

[xchrom]

6. i found 'end of suburbia' very intriguing.

i'm not an expert but i think our bubbles economy is running into environmental problems.





& i don't think bubbles can fix the environmental problems.

[LiberalLoner]

2. K&R n/t

[Betty]

3. from my own experience

the recession never ended. I'm a musician and we are in many ways at the bottom of the food chain. Work has dried up and never come back to previous levels. It's better than it was at the worst time but nowhere near recovered. I think these assholes in charge think that we all accept this shitty situation as the new normal, and so the next "Recession" will be going down from an already lower level. I wonder how many of these drops the country will be able to take.

[krabigirl]

7. Wait, the last recession actually ended? ...

[progressoid]

8. Sure, we're in a recovery doncha know.

:eyes: