Hama massacre reignites Syria

[Jefferson23]

June 9, 2011


TEL AVIV - Last week, it looked as though the Syrian government was winning against the popular uprising <1>. What happened since then took most analysts - including myself - by surprise. With over 100 protesters and over 100 security forces reportedly killed in a few days, what I had deemed only a distant theoretical possibility, a rapid slide of the country toward Libya-style civil war, has just become a lot more probable.

A word of caution: as the fog of war thickens by the day in Syria, it is very difficult to verify information coming out of there. A staggering amount of hearsay is evident in practically all reports, and the gap is growing between the government's narrative and that of the opposition. According to researchers of peace and conflict, this bodes further violence in the future. However, it is very difficult to provide a timeframe for this violence or to predict its course.

A civil war is just one of several main scenarios, and it is also possible that the regime is exaggerating its own casualty count and looking for an excuse to accelerate its crackdown. A crucial indicator to watch, one which will spell the survival of the regime more than any other, is whether rumors of substantial army defections will be confirmed.

Arguably, what rekindled the uprising over the weekend was an image that carries deep emotional significance for most Syrians. This image is summed up in the words "massacre in Hama".

Almost 30 years ago, in 1982, the current Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafez al-Assad, ordered the army to level much of the city of Hama in order to put down a Muslim Brotherhood uprising. Between 10,000 and 40,000 people died. The Muslim Brotherhood never quite recovered from the trauma, but neither did the Syrian people.

in full: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MF09Ak03.html

[midnight]

1. Visualize peace for this region....