Colombia has only half the proven reserves of Argentina, a quarter of the reserves of Ecuador, and 1/10 as much as Brazil. With those reserves they are producing as much as Ecuador and Argentina, and about 1/3 as much as Brazil. Basically their R/P ratio is a quarter that of Ecuador or Brazil, meaning they will "run out" four times faster. In fact, their R/P ratio of 5.4 years is the lowest in the producing world except for Thailand, whose output and reserves are both minuscule.
Colombia reached a production peak in 1998, and declined by a third from that peak until 2003 when the slide was arrested. In the two last years for which I have data (2008 and 2009) their production increased about 25% from the plateau of 2003-2006. They currently produce about 10% of South America's oil, compared to 30% for Brazil and 39% for Venezuela.
According to
the EIA:
Prior to 2008, Colombia's oil production had remained largely flat for many years. This followed a period of steady decline that started in 1999, when Colombia's oil production peaked at 830,000 bbl/d. The principle cause of the fall in oil production was natural declines at existing oil fields and a lack of sizable new reserve discoveries. However, a combination of changes to the regulatory framework and an improved security situation have contributed to increasing investment in the country. The improvement in Colombia's security situation has also been a significant contributor to the renewed interest by international oil companies. Pipelines and other energy infrastructure are still the targets of attacks by guerrillas, but the number and severity of these attacks is much lower than the past. According to the Colombian government, there were about 11 attacks against pipelines in 2008, versus hundreds of such incidents that occurred per year in the early 2000s.
Colombia may have production problems due to unrest, but those appear to be declining significantly. Given their low levels of reserves I don't see them becoming a production powerhouse. Venezuela is also past their peak, even with an R/P ratio of over 100 years. Brazil is definitely on a roll, though, and could overtake Venezuela any day - if they haven't already.
Here's a look at the South American oil situation, with data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010: