Have Saudis overstated how much oil is left?

[Joanne98]

While the world remains transfixed by the Egyptian revolt, a crisis with equally profound global consequences is quietly brewing elsewhere in the Middle East: WikiLeaks this week released U.S. diplomatic cables suggesting that Saudi Arabia may have vastly overstated its oil reserves — if true, that could dramatically accelerate the arrival of the long-feared "peak oil" moment, when oil production hits its final high before slowly declining, keeping prices rising for the foreseeable future and slowing global economic growth. But not all industry analysts are convinced by the claims in the cables.

The diplomatic cables from the U.S. embassy in Riyadh between 2007 and 2009 cite a former senior executive of Saudi Arabia's state-run Aramco oil company as revealing to American officials that the country's official estimate of 716 billion barrels of oil reserves is, well, hogwash; the real figure is about 40% lower than that, according to the oil executive, Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist who until 2004 headed Aramco's exploration department — a seemingly impeccable source. WikiLeaks released the four cables on Tuesday.

As a private citizen no longer representing the company, Husseini was apparently free to speak candidly. And in a November 2007 meeting with the U.S. economic officer in Riyadh, he broke the sobering news that the country's reserves were nowhere near as big as officials were claiming. "First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described," the U.S. Consul General John Kincannon in Riyadh wrote to State Department officials in Washington, reporting on Husseini's analysis, "and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray."



Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2048242,00.html#ixzz1Dr5NhhBQ

Of course they have! Why else would they block any independent testing?

[Demeter]

1. No credibility

Any number of reasons he could be lying or just making it up. No good reason why he should say anything truthful.

[plumbob]

2. I have a friend who has worked there 20 years, and he says they have

been pumping about 25% salt water in the eastern fields for about a decade now.

[IDemo]

3. Water injection has been going on since 1965

And contrary to the OP - "716 billion barrels of oil reserves is, well, hogwash; the real figure is about 40% lower than that", even that is likely far too high:

Currently, the estimated proven reserves of Ghawar are about 70 billion barrels Arabian Light crude oil (33° API). Commercial production from Ghawar began in 1951 and reached a peak of 5.7 million barrels per day in 1981. This was the highest sustained oil production rate achieved by any single oilfield in world history. Cumulative production from the field is about 55 billion barrels. Today, Ghawar remains the world’s most important oilfield with a daily production rate of 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day. This represents nearly 6 percent of global oil production, a remarkable number given Ghawar is one of thousands of identified oil fields worldwide.

Ghawar’s amazing oil production has been aided by water injection that was initiated in 1965. Estimated injection rates are in the range of seven million barrels of seawater per day. This has produced an effect known as “water cut,” which is the joint production of oil and water from a well. Ghawar’s water cut currently is about 30-35 percent.