A Restive Egypt Faces Succession; Islamists May Make Bid For Power

[Ghost Dog]

Daniel Pipes, the director of the Middle East Forum, and a Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, lived and studied in Egypt for three years.

He sees Egypt as embroiled in a "tripartite rivalry for power" among the military, the traditional ruler of Egypt since 1952; the Mubarak dynasty, the new royal family; and the Muslim Brotherhood (the Ikwan), Egypt's Islamist movement. Professor Pipes believes that Lt. Gen. Omar Suleiman, 74, Egypt's spy chief since 1993, is the leading military rival to Gamal.

Mubarak's party is trying to sell Gamal as the nation's first nonmilitary ruler in almost 60 years, but the opposition parties have yet to sign on — in spite of the constant extension of Egypt's Emergency Law, in effect martial law, since Sadat's assassination.

It's the Emergency Law that allows Mubarak and Suleiman to imprison anyone at whim without trial, as well as confiscate the assets of Muslim Brotherhood supporters.

That the Muslim Brotherhood might take advantage of a power struggle between the Mubarak dynasty and the military is a high probability, according to Pipes, who sees Gamal as the weakest of the three contending factions. "When Mubarak passes from the scene," Pipes calculates, "there'll likely be a blowup with the Islamists making a play for power."

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Interesting background on what may be brewing in Egypt.