How Bad Could 2010 Really Get For Democrats?

[IndianaGreen]

April 14, 2010

How Bad Could 2010 Really Get For Democrats?

By Sean Trende

Though Election Day is still months away, pundits have already begun to speculate on possible outcomes for this year's midterms. There's a general consensus that Democrats will lose seats in November, but beyond that opinions vary widely on how big those losses might be. Some argue that because of the advance notice, passage of health care, and an improving economy (or some combination of all three), Democrats will be able to limit their losses significantly. Others are predicting a repeat of 1994, when Democrats lost 50+ seats and control of the House.

So how bad could 2010 get for the Democrats? Let me say upfront that I tend to agree with analysts who argue that if we move into a "V"-shaped recovery and President Obama's job approval improves, Democratic losses could be limited to twenty or twenty-five seats.

That said, I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility - not merely a far-fetched scenario - that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn't be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

Consider that Democrats typically lead in the generic ballot, even if they do not gain control of Congress. In 2004, for example, Democrats led Republicans in 63 out of 72 generic ballot tests taken that year. Yet Republicans picked up a handful of seats in 2004 and won the popular vote by three points.

This year, five different polling companies have put Republicans in the lead for the generic ballot in the last two weeks alone - one reason why Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats "during my 50 years of following politics closely." The RCP Average has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.8 points on the generic ballot test. That should equate roughly to a 225-seat Republican majority (Republicans won the national vote by 5 points in 1994), which would almost represent a 50-seat pickup.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/04/14/how_bad_could_2010_really_get_for_democrats_105152.html

[ChicagoSuz219]

1. Judging by Deutch's win...

...not very.

[old mark]

2. Total bullshit from beginning to end. We will win seats if we turn out

voters and don't stay home to "punish" the Democratic party for not being progressive enough.

I belive we will do it and the GOP is runing scared.

mark

[IndianaGreen]

5. Where is single payer, public option, repeal of DADT, passage of ENDA, end to the wars?

Let the DLC pukes do the canvassing, the registering, and the GOTV! It is their government!

[TheWraith]

3. What bullshit.

Dems are back in the lead on the generic congressional ballot post healthcare, plus the Republicans have record low approval ratings for the direction of their party.

[teknomanzer]

16. Republicans may be surprised this election...

I'm looking at a couple of factors that will definitely affect this upcoming election -

The Teabagger republicans are going to be a turnoff for some voters - moderate republicans may be out of play

Michael (Token) Steele's obvious incompetence will definitely come into play this cycle

Progressives are not as turned off as one might think -- At least I know I'm not -- yes I am disappointed that Dems did not go far enough on important issues but I'll be damned if I'm going to let Palinite Teabaggers have their way -- so I'm definitly motivated to support my party --

TIME TO HOLD THE LINE!

[Jefferson23]

17. Yes, this is not about the general election, and progressives should not

give up on furthering their prospects and I don't think we will.

[Jefferson23]

4. Even David Frum doesn't agree with this OP.

That is not to say that none of the Democrats will lose a seat, just not many by his prediction.



From the Hartmann interview back in March:


snip* David Frum: Well I think that things are going to get a little bit worse before they get better. But I think we are going to see first Republicans are going to be surprised, they’re not going to do as well in these 2010 elections as they think.

Thom Hartmann: I agree with you.

David Frum: And they’re going to discover also that there are elements of this Obama care plan that are very popular with key Republican constituencies, the over 65 and small business. And we are going to have to shift to fit, identifying the things that are specifically wrong, and I’ve got a lot of specific things to suggest, and then working on reform and revision from within our values.

transcript in full: http://www.thomhartmann.com/blog/2010/04/transcript-thom-hartmann-asks-david-frum-how-stop-right-wing-crazy-train-taking-over-th

[ShortnFiery]

11. David Frum thought the Iraqi Invasion was DoublePlusGood for the Nation.

I wouldn't trust him to sell me a pack of gum. :thumbsdown:

[Jefferson23]

12. Compare apples to oranges if you want to...the point is that he is a

Republican who believes his party has sunk themselves through their heavy handed means of trying to destroy Obama via
the health care bill. That is why I said, "Even Frum", doesn't agree with the posted OP.

[ShortnFiery]

13. You have NO IDEA what Frum truly believes. I wouldn't trust his on-air opinions.

Think propaganda and disinformation? Yes, I knew we could. :-)

[Jefferson23]

14. Perhaps you are unaware that Frum was recently fired from his

position at a conservative think tank, as he had expressed his opinion that Republicans were making
a huge mistake trying to break Obama on health care. He was right, Republicans lost and the hardline that
Republicans are continuing to make by embracing the anti government, racists Tea Baggers is his point. That fraction
of voters will not help Republicans in the fall, keep in mind how McCain lost the Independents and moderate Republicans
when he chose Palin.

Frum is not the only one making this case, many, like Hartmann, agree with him.

On edit to add: I do think there is a good case to make for the general election regarding Obama, as his accomplishments
may not be enough to mobilize the spirit of the Democrats back to 2008. But this OP here, does not focus on the
general election.

[ShortnFiery]

15. Simply put, I don't trust Frum as far as I could throw his chubby butt. eom

[classysassy]

6. The american voters

just don't get it,they let Newt and his rogues take control of the house and what happened?they and their unelected clown screwed up this country for eight years,is that what we want to happen again?

[boomerbust]

7. Bookmark

Nov. 3 2010

[4dsc]

8. Question is will liberals sit this one out?

[ShortnFiery]

10. Should it matter? The right-wing corporate democrats are making the decisions.

We get "a few scraps" such as Hospital Visitation for gay partners but not much else.

Gee, I think these guys can take on the world? Now if they wish to take liberals seriously and not call us "retards" ... and you know, PASS a Robust Public Option for Health Care before November, I just may shag my liberal ass to vote for them. As it stands now, I'm not voting for either Webb or Warner when their times come up.

[nxylas]

9. Consider the source

RCP is a conservative site, and whilst it's not on the post-modernist "we create our own reality" fringe like Free Republic, Little Green Footballs and their ilk, it does spin the news in such a way as to always favor the Republicans.