The Rise and Rise of Turkey (NYT)

[Dover]

The Rise and Rise of Turkey
Published: November 4, 2009

It is generally accepted that America’s destruction of Iraq overturned the balance of power in the Gulf, opening the way for the Islamic Republic of Iran to emerge as a major regional power, able to challenge the dominance of Sunni Arab states and pose as a rival to both Israel and the United States.

Its influence has spread to Iraq itself — now under Shiite leadership — and beyond to Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and even perhaps to Zaidi rebels in northern Yemen fighting the central government in Sana‘a, a development that has aroused understandable anxiety in Saudi Arabia.

However, the Iraq war has had another important consequence that is also attracting serious notice. America’s failure in Iraq — and its equal failure to tame Israel’s excesses — has encouraged Turkey to emerge from its pro-American straitjacket and assert itself as a powerful independent actor at the heart of a vast region that extends from the Middle East to the Balkans, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

The Turks like to say that whereas Iran and Israel are revisionist powers, arousing anxiety and even fear by their expansionism and their challenge to existing power structures, Turkey is a stabilizing power, intent on spreading peace and security far and wide.

Turkey is extending its influence by diplomacy rather than force. It is also forging economic ties with its neighbors, and has offered to mediate in several persistent regional conflicts. It has, however, not hesitated to use force to quell the guerrillas of the PKK, a rebel movement fighting for Kurdish independence...cont'd

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/05/opinion/05iht-edseale.html

[Kaleva]

1. Interesting. Thanks for posting this!

[amandabeech]

2. Elsewhere on the internet,

there's speculation that Turkey will stop attempting to enter the E.U. and eventually leave NATO.

Totally different take on the same facts.

I have personal experience with Turks. From what they say, Turkey is moving away from the West in general.

[Dover]

3. I think the EU will regret not bringing them into the fold...

It could still happen but seems more and more remote. However the world geopolitics seems to be dividing itself into distinct trading blocks and perhaps regional currencies as well, so it will be interesting to see how Turkey decides to align itself regionally. Turkey is so
key, literally and symbolically, as a bridge and gateway to East/West, that it seems their fate will be pivotal relative to how the world progresses from here on out. And of course its position as a pipeline and transit hub is both a position of power and extreme vulnerability.

[amandabeech]

4. Geopolitically, I'd have to agree.

However, I think that the cultural issues may prevail. I know that the government is supposed to be secular, but I'm not sure that the current ruling party is as devoted to that principle as Ataturk was. I certainly hope that secularism will remain, particularly for the women of Turkey.

[Syntheto]

5. Turkey is the example...

...that all governments should emulate, in that it operates on a secular basis.