Sabato: The Democrats Aren't Doomed

[bemildred]

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Sabato's Crystal Ball website says that it is the Democrats who are on a roll when it comes to winning House seats in 2010. Yes, the GOP won the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, but that didn't spill over into the contested special election in New York's 23rd, which was won by a Democrat.

"Often when a party is poised to make big gains in Congress, they first win a handful of seats from their opposition in special elections. That was the case for the Democrats on the eve of their huge congressional gains in the Watergate election of 1974. And it was true again for the Republicans in advance of their takeover of Congress in 1994," the forecast notes. "But there has been no such harbinger as yet of a coming GOP tsunami in 2010. Rather, the loss in upstate New York marked the fourth time since the beginning of 2008 that the Democrats picked up a previously Republican House seat in a special election, with no similar takeaways by the GOP."

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/washington-whispers/2009/11/13/sabato-the-democrats-arent-doomed.html

[Double T]

1. Polls, combined with doing little or nothing, indicate next years midterm elections.......

will be anything but easy elections and/or reelections. The masses want decisive action, not a bunch of words or pea and shell legislation. Sabato better get the Windex and clean the crystal ball.

[bemildred]

2. "The masses"?

Are you some sort of commie?

[BillDU]

5. The masses

You question the masses in an election?
Are you an idiot?

[bemildred]

15. Well, I'm smart enough to question anyone that claims to speak for "the masses". nt

[Double T]

8. commie..hardly. Revolutionary..absolutely!!

When 'the masses' are sick and tired of being ignored and having their asses kicked, then and only then will WE begin to get some results!!!! In MY perfect world, 2012 would leave US with ALL incumbents, at every level of government, left behind permanently.

[demwing]

12. Be careful what you wish for

That Monkey's Paw may come back and flip you off.



It's happened before...

[Double T]

17. george h. w., then george w. with jeb and george p. waiting in the wings.

Nothing in the 'The Corporate Republic of Greed' would surprise me.

[jaysunb]

3. And, WHO exactly are these "masses?"

Normal people understand the mess that was created and who the culprits were...

Turn off you TeeVee.

[Double T]

6. TV news networks are already gone from MY TeeVee.

Look beyond; the becoming less silent majority is extremely impatient and very restless.

[yurbud]

4. If Democrats think they can win by being 2% less corrupt than GOP, they could snatch defeat

from the jaws of victory by so demoralizing their base that we forget to vote.

[Double T]

7. 2% less corrupt; you are being way to generous.

From what I'm observing it looks like a dead heat at best....or is that worst.

[wutangfan85]

10. Yeah I wholeheartedly agree

They really need to stop the strategy of triangulation, it just isn't goin 2 work. On a different note, if you're on Twitter right now the hashtag YouMightBeALiberal has been the #1 trending topic for hours. You can check out my journal here to see what I'm talking about: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/wutangfan85/1

[yurbud]

16. their triangulation is more like doing CPR on the corpse of the GOP and their Wall St. patrons

They should have driven a stake in the vampire, chopped off it's head, and dragged it into the sunlight instead.

[localroger]

11. Which polls are these?

Polls that measure Republican primary chances show that all over the place the teabag wing of the party is ready to split the vote and go down in flames to purge themselves of anyone too moderate for their taste. Olympia Snowe was just polled as losing her next primary 60-40 to an unnamed generic Republican opponent. And the whackjobs these guys put up as alternatives are so repulsive to the conservative / business wing of the GOP that those people either stay home or vote for the Democrat. This is precisely what happened in NY 23 and it's lining up to happen the same way in a lot of other states and districts in 2010.

[demwing]

13. Can you provide some links

to the polls you are citing?

[smiley_glad_hands]

14. so your going to vote repug or teabagger in 2010? eom

[Double T]

18. Despite what some think, there are more than two political parties in the system.

'Brand New Democrats' sounds good.

[yellowcanine]

20. Sabato is right more often than not. I will take his crystal ball over yours.

[opihimoimoi]

9. Larrys odds of correctly calling the shots is the highest in the Land...Based on Math

[Alcibiades]

19. Let's not forget Abramowitz

The "Time-for-change" model looks pretty good. I really need to read the book Sabato edited on the 2008 election, which includes a chapter by Abramowitz.