July 31, 2003 -- SUDDENLY, Democrats are coming smack up against a stunning fact: anti-war upstart Howard Dean has become their 2004 presidential front-runner.
He's the only Dem moving up in the polls. And Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) - the early quasi-front-runner with lots of establishment support after Al Gore dropped out in December - is going nowhere now.
Consider the tests of a front-runner. Take fund-raising. Dean, a physician and former governor of Vermont, topped the Dem pack in the last quarter by raking in $7.6 million.
No rival comes close in Internet savvy. Dean raised $507,000 on the 'Net last weekend in a whimsical "Cheney challenge" just to show his supporters could top Vice President Dick Cheney's $300,000 lunch. No other Dem could hope to do it.
Or take the first two test states that vote next January. Dean is either ahead or tied for the lead in Iowa. He tops the last few public polls in New Hampshire over Kerry by as many as three percentage points - but private polls are said to show a much bigger lead.
National polls don't matter that much right now - Iowa and New Hampshire are the key - but this week's Zogby national poll had Dean tied with Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) and Rep. Dick Gephardt (Mo.) at 12 and Kerry at 9 percent.
Dean also has an intense core of supporters, another key front-runner test.
...
So far, Team Dean has remade the rules. He's even raising cash in Iowa and New Hampshire where the old rules say you seek votes, not cash. The Dean theory: People who give you money are more likely to come vote for you on an icy night.
Already, centrists mutter about how to stop Dean. But Team Dean says the old technique - TV attack ads - won't work because for the first time in 2004 such ads must feature the attacking candidate's face. The risk is the ad might backfire.
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