THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, August 31 – Obama 323, McCain 215

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, August 31, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote and National Polls
6. Probabilities and Potentials
7. State Poll Averages Comparison
8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls
11. Sources and Links





Each section from the Table of Contents above is posted as a separate reply below. This should make it easier to reply to the OP or reply to a specific section. :D

[phrigndumass]

1. 1. Current Stats

1. Current Stats

With only 65 days remaining until the election, Barack Obama has added Senator Joe Biden to the ticket and has given an acceptance speech to beat all acceptance speeches at the Democratic National Convention. As the Republican Convention begins tomorrow, John McCain has chosen an unknown, anti-women’s rights woman for their Vice Presidential candidate, in keeping with the Orwellian playbook of the Bush/Cheney Administration. The national polls are doing much better for Obama this week, and his indices overall climbed from last week. Some indices rose, and some fell, but the progress chart is better for Obama this week than it was last week.

States moving to the left this week are: Arizona (10), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21) and Virginia (13). States moving to the right this week are: Michigan (17) and Texas (34). Virginia and Nevada were the only states to switch sides this week.


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 65 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 323
McCain – 215
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 57,785,124 … (45.6%) … (+329,511)
McCain – 57,455,613 … (45.3%)
Barr – 2,914,053 … (2.3%)
Nader – 1,607,492 … (1.3%)
McKinney – 126,721 … (0.1%)
Undecided/Other – 6,958,717 … (5.5%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 46.72%
McCain – 53.28%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 61,040,000 … (48.2%) … (-120,000)
McCain – 61,160,000 … (48.3%)
All Others – 4,421,000 … (3.4%)


Probability of Obama Win – 77.9% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 85.7%



^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.

[tekisui]

8. Obama acceptance speech seen by 84,000+ line, 38+million at home!!

Mcpow may accept his nomination in at a hurricane destruction site.

Says it all.

KNR!

[phrigndumass]

13. I wonder if they'll serve cake during the republican convention

... as Gustav cuts a swath of destruction. It was John McCain's birthday Friday, so that would fit.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[Demeter]

18. 53 Electoral Vote Lead. Now THAT'S More Like It!

We could still hit 350, P-Man. Did it before under much less favorable circumstances.

Happy Sunday!

[phrigndumass]

20. 350 isn't impossible, and it would be great!

Remember Bill Clinton's 370. It's happened before :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. 2. Electoral Votes

2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 45.2% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 32.2%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error comes to about one-fourth of the total this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (trailing 46.7%-53.3%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 323, up from 314 last week.



^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.

[Demeter]

19. I Especially Like the Way the Green Line Defies Gravity

[phrigndumass]

21. It does have the shape of an upswing, doesn't it?

For a solid six weeks before the recent upswing, there were no sections of the green line that even resembled what we're seeing now. Obama's rising!

[phrigndumass]

3. 3. Strength of Electoral Votes

3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The states within the margin of error decreased 9 electoral votes this week, down from 131 electoral votes to 122 electoral votes. Michigan (17) moved into the margin of error this week, while New Mexico (5) and Pennsylvania (21) moved out.



^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”

[phrigndumass]

4. 4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was trailing George W. Bush 242 electoral votes to 280 electoral votes, with 16 tied. John Kerry’s electoral vote projection had plummeted by 44 in one week, a drop of more than 40 electoral votes for two weeks in a row. The Republican convention was being held this week four years ago.

Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 29 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. And Obama has about 15 more Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also 35 fewer electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had about 10 more Strong electoral votes then.



^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.

[phrigndumass]

5. 5. Popular Vote and National Polls

5. Popular Vote and National Polls

Obama is currently projected to win 45.6% of the popular vote, and he is ahead of McCain by only 0.3%. Barr is taking 2.3% of the vote, while Nader is polling at 1.3% and McKinney is polling at 0.1%. The percentage of Undecideds jumped this week to 5.5%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote lead becomes a deficit of 0.1%.

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Trend lines for Obama’s lead in Gallup Daily Tracking, Rasmussen Daily Tracking and Real Clear Politics Average all move up for the second week in a row. Looking at all these sources together, we can see that Obama’s lead in the popular vote ranges between -1.0% and +2.0%, according to the trends revealed by the national polls.



^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126,750,000 votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.



^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions. The scale is between 0 and 126.75 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 63,375,000 votes. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 5d. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.



^ FIGURE 5e. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.



^ FIGURE 5f. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.

[fight4my3sons]

15. Good morning, phrigndumass!

I just don't get the closeness in popular vote. Is is because of the undecided voters?

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

16. It's from the totals in the state polls, which are behind the national polls

by a couple weeks. We should begin to see a better popular vote lead for Obama as new state polls are released in the next week or two.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: I added French Vanilla cream this morning ... :D

[fight4my3sons]

17. Thanks!

That makes sense. :)

French Vanilla ...yummy :9 just what I needed!

[phrigndumass]

6. 6. Probabilities and Potentials

6. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 67.8%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 54.8%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +13.0% (up from +11.3% last week). McCain’s potential advantage fell by 1.7 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage stayed the same.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 66.2% and Bush’s potential advantage was 63.0%. Kerry led Bush by 3.2% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +13.0% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 138 … (25.7%)
McCain – 132 … (24.5%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 243 … (45.2%)
McCain – 173 … (32.2%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 365 … (67.8%)
McCain – 173 … (32.2%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 243 … (45.2%)
McCain – 295 … (54.8%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 406 … (75.5%)
McCain – 132 … (24.5%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 138 … (25.7%)
McCain – 400 … (74.3%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.

[phrigndumass]

7. 7. State Poll Averages Comparison

7. State Poll Averages Comparison

Obama’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 45.1% this week, down 0.7% from last week. Obama is behind Kerry’s finishing 46.5% state poll average, and also behind Gore’s finishing 46.1% state poll average.

McCain’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 45.6% this week, up 0.2% from last week. Obama now trails McCain in the aggregate state poll average.

It’s interesting to note that only one candidate from either party in the past four presidential elections managed to reach a 50.0% poll average majority, and that was George W. Bush in 2004 (50.7%). All other final results from all parties ended below 50.0%.


Comparison of State Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 46.2%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)



^ FIGURE 7a. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the aggregate state poll averages for each candidate, and compares them to the final aggregate state poll averages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.

[phrigndumass]

9. 8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages

8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama rises three percentage points to 49% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama jumps one point to 49%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 47.7% for Obama, which is an increase of 2.7% over last week. Obama is now leading McCain in Gallup by 8%, leading by 4% in Rasmussen and by 3.9% in RCP. Our Wigand Electoral Average rose from 49.81 last week to 53.16 this week for Obama, as Nevada and Virginia moved back into Obama’s territory.

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 60.1, up from 58.4 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets fell from 61.8 to 59.9 this week.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states drops another 19.50 this week to 554.20 for Obama, which is below the majority mark of 600.00. Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin gained ground in trading for Obama this week. Nebraska and North Carolina stays put, while losses were incurred for Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico and South Carolina. Obama is trailing McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 46.7% to 53.3%. This is down 1.1 percentage points from last week for Obama.



^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

[phrigndumass]

10. 9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)

9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Arizona Obama 41, McCain 47 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
California Obama 48, McCain 39 (Public Policy Institute of CA, 8/19, +/- 3.0, 1047 LV)
Colorado Obama 46, McCain 43 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Colorado Obama 46, McCain 47 (Quinnipiac University, 8/21, +/- 3.0, 1060 LV)
Colorado Obama 44, McCain 39, Barr 2, Nader 2 (Suffolk University, 8/24, +/- 4.6, 450 LV)
Colorado Obama 43, McCain 40 (Hill Research Consultants, 8/24, +/- 4.2, 553 LV)
Colorado Obama 46, McCain 47 (CNN/Time, 8/26, +/- 4.0, 670 RV)
Florida Obama 39, McCain 42 (Kitchens Group/FCC, 8/21, +/- 4.0, 605 LV)
Florida Obama 43, McCain 47 (Quinnipiac University, 8/24, +/- 3.0, 1069 LV)
Florida Obama 42, McCain 49, Barr 1 (Strategic Vision, 8/24, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 44 (Mason-Dixon, 8/26, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Idaho Obama 29, McCain 52 (Greg Smith & Associates, 8/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Michigan Obama 43, McCain 41, Barr 1, Nader 3 (EPIC-MRA, 8/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Nevada Obama 41, McCain 47 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Nevada Obama 49, McCain 44 (CNN/Time, 8/26, +/- 4.0, 625 RV)
New Mexico Obama 41, McCain 45 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
New Mexico Obama 53, McCain 40 (CNN/Time, 8/26, +/- 4.0, 659 RV)
North Carolina Obama 42, McCain 45, Barr 4 (Public Policy Polling, 8/23, +/- 3.3, 904 LV)
Ohio Obama 41, McCain 42, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Columbus Dispatch, 8/21, +/- 2.2, 2102 RV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 43 (Quinnipiac University, 8/24, +/- 2.8, 1234 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 49, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac University, 8/24, +/- 2.8, 1234 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 48, McCain 43 (CNN/Time, 8/26, +/- 4.0, 669 RV)
Rhode Island Obama 51, McCain 30 (Brown University, 8/20, +/- 4.0, 548 RV)
Texas Obama 44, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 8/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Utah Obama 23, McCain 62 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 45 (Public Policy Polling, 8/22, +/- 3.0, 1036 LV)
Wyoming Obama 25, McCain 62 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.

[phrigndumass]

14. How many times in one week can a poll be conducted in Colorado? lol ...

I think they were going for the record this week. Five times, with three different results ranging from Weak Obama to Lean Obama to Lean McCain.

"Ugh, not again!" is probably what most pollsters hear before the click.

:crazy:

[phrigndumass]

11. 10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls

10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls


States with Undecideds 10% or Greater:
1. Oklahoma – 18.9%
2. West Virginia – 16.4%
3. Rhode Island – 12.9%
4. New York – 11.4%


States with Outdated Polls (Older Than 35 days):
Arkansas – Last Poll … 7/15
Delaware – Last Poll … 2/28
Hawaii – Last Poll … 2/28
North Dakota – Last Poll … 7/23
Oklahoma – Last Poll … 7/23
South Carolina – Last Poll … 7/23
South Dakota – Last Poll … 7/9
Vermont – Last Poll … 2/28
West Virginia – Last Poll – 6/2

[phrigndumass]

12. 11. Sources and Links

11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com


*********************************************************************


As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[grantcart]

22. great thanks

As always I think the popular vote totals are not reflecting changing demographic realities of minority voters.

[phrigndumass]

23. Agreed ...

We'll see a bump in the popular vote over the next couple weeks, but it could be less than actual because of the demographics you mentioned.

:hi:

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

24. Great stuff! Thanks. One request, can you add VA to the state futures list?

[proud patriot]

25. thanks

:kick: