Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili's 'calculated gamble'

[bemildred]

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, a U.S-trained attorney regarded by Washington as a pro-democracy wunderkind, has made a political career of brinkmanship with neighboring Russia. This time, he may have overplayed his hand.

Saakashvili helped oust former Soviet Foreign Minister and Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze in the so-called Rose Revolution in 2003 and became Europe's youngest president the following January at the age of 36. He has been jousting with Moscow ever since over control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two pro-Russian regions of his country.

A lover of Georgian wine and Western culture, Saakashvili is described as supremely confident and even autocratic. He moved troops into disputed South Ossetia last week as a new Russian president presided in Moscow, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Bush visited Beijing, and much of the world's attention was focused on the Summer Olympics. Georgian forces came under overwhelming air and ground attack and were quickly repelled.

Saakashvili says his forces were provoked into action in South Ossetia; Russia accuses him of launching an offensive move against his nemesis. Either way, he has ended up in a more precarious position.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-saakashvili12-2008aug12,0,6671058.story?page=1&track=rss

[Occam Bandage]

1. Mayhaps he should have recalculated.

[David Dunham]

2. The NY Times has a strong editorial Tuesday condemning Russia to the max

[bemildred]

5. Yeah, there is a lot of that right now.

The Mighty Wurlitzer is running full blast, but they are not all singing from the same sheet music yet. But is clear that Russia is not showing as much "restraint" as we would like. But it's all hot air IMHO. Might as well get as much propaganda mileage out of it as you can, sure not going to get much else. The thing is there is little "we" can do except talk. Russia will stop when it has gutted the Georgian military, is my guess, and that's what wars are all about, once you get them started.

[spag68]

3. If those regions are part of the country Georgia

then is he in the right to move forces anywhere within his country?

[ladjf]

4. The issue isn't whether or not he had the "right" to move the troops

in. In was a matter of judgment with regard to Russia's intentions. It appears that he took the "bait" and provided Russia with the opportunity to do what it had wanter to do anyway.

[provis99]

8. The Ossetians don't want to be part of Georgia

I'm a little offended at Georgians beliefs that they can separate from a country they don't like (the Soviet Union), but deny the same right to people who want to separate from Georgia. My sympathies are with the Ossetians, not the Georgian hypocrites and aggressors.

[Old and In the Way]

6. Is this a Project for a New Russian Century?

Bet Saakashvili wishes he could have a do over for the past 2 weeks. I have no idea who is "right" in this conflict. But this guy's biggest mistake was believing the Bush administration BS. Did he really think we'd jump into such a conflict, given the other 2 messes we are saddled with in this region? He obviously didn't understand his place in the geopolitical order. He obviously thought he wielded a lot more influence in the game than he really did.

Putin must be enjoying using the same logic the US neocon apologists have been using to justify our invasion/occupation in Iraq. I'm surprised he hasn't tried the "they have WMD and we could have smoking craters in 45 minutes".

[Scurrilous]

7. From a Russian website: