THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, August 10 – Obama 344, McCain 194

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, August 10, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote and National Polls
6. Probabilities and Potentials
7. State Poll Averages Comparison
8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls
11. Sources and Links





Each section from the Table of Contents above is posted as a separate reply below. This should make it easier to reply to the OP or reply to a specific section. :D

[phrigndumass]

1. 1. Current Stats

1. Current Stats

With only 86 days remaining until the election, most of Barack Obama’s indices continue to fall this week with the exception of his national polling and the strength of his electoral votes. The number of Undecideds dropped a huge 1.1% this week to 5.6% nationwide, but Obama picked up only 0.1% of it. Ralph Nader also took 0.1% while John McCain grabbed the biggest chunk of the Undecided votes this week, 0.9%. Obama’s popular vote projection fell below 50% for the first time since May (49.6%), while McCain reached a new high of 47.3%. But Barack Obama still has a 79.0% probability of winning the election.

States moving to the left this week are: New Jersey (15). States moving to the right this week are: Florida (27), Oregon (7) and Wisconsin (10). Only Florida switched sides this week.

These results won’t happen unless we donate and work hard for Democrats in 2008!


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 86 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 344
McCain – 194
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 59,069,555 … (46.6%) … (+2,452,800)
McCain – 56,616,755 … (44.7%)
Barr – 2,586,143 … (2.0%)
Nader – 1,340,438 … (1.1%)
McKinney – 126,721 … (0.1%)
Undecided/Other – 7,108,110 … (5.6%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 52.78%
McCain – 47.22%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 62,820,000 … (49.6%) … (+2,850,000)
McCain – 59,970,000 … (47.3%)
All Others – 3,901,000 … (3.1%)


Probability of Obama Win – 79.0% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 87.7%



^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.

[phrigndumass]

2. 2. Electoral Votes

2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 43.9% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 30.7%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error comes to a little over one-fourth of the total this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (52.8%-47.2%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 344, down from 350 last week.



^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.

[phrigndumass]

3. 3. Strength of Electoral Votes

3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The states within the margin of error increased 7 electoral votes this week, up from 130 electoral votes to 137 electoral votes. The only state moving into the margin of error this week is Oregon (7). No states moved outside the margin of error this week.



^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”

[Demeter]

16. I'm Troubled By Increasing MOE. Should I Be?

Because it all seems to leech out of Obama's Side of the table....

[phrigndumass]

18. It has me wondering as well, because they can go either way ... but

that's when we should get our history books out and go to school on those particular states. Some of them will always be in the moe, like a microclimate, and we won't know until election day who will win those states. Others go back and forth between weak and strong for the same candidate, meaning the state will most likely select that candidate but the voters may be wavering back and forth between that candidate and "undecided" until closer to the election.

Did you catch Nate Silver on Countdown last night? He made a good point ... although polling agencies advertise a 3 or 4 percent margin of error, before Labor Day and the debates the moe's are really seven or eight percent. That can make the MOE on the pie chart grow.

Here's a link to Nate Silver's interview with Keith Olbermann ...
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/538-on-countdown.html

Further, I believe when the moe total is high, then we can take comfort in the fact that Obama's Strong total is 70 electoral votes higher than McCain's Strong total. Obama doesn't need to win all those states within the moe, just a few of them.

Nice, huh? :D

[RNdaSilva]

24. Bump x 3.

[phrigndumass]

4. 4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was leading George W. Bush 307 electoral votes to 231 electoral votes, with 0 tied. The Democratic National Convention had already been held by this point in 2004, and John Kerry and John Edwards were experiencing a post-convention bounce.

Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 2 fewer Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. And Obama also has about 15 less Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also about 40 more electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had about 20 more Strong electoral votes then.



^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.

[phrigndumass]

5. 5. Popular Vote and National Polls

5. Popular Vote and National Polls

Obama is currently projected to win 46.6% of the popular vote, and he is ahead of McCain by 1.9%. Barr is taking 2% of the vote, while Nader is polling at 1.1% and McKinney is polling at 0.1%. The percentage of Undecideds plummets this week to 5.6%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote lead increases to 3.1%.

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Trend lines for Obama’s lead in Gallup Daily Tracking, Rasmussen Daily Tracking and Real Clear Politics Average continue to drop this week. Looking at all these sources together, however, we can see that Obama’s lead in the popular vote ranges between -0.3% (McCain over Obama) and +3.0% (Obama over McCain), according to the trends revealed by the national polls.



^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126,750,000 votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.



^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions. The scale is between 0 and 126.75 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 63,375,000 votes. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 5d. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.



^ FIGURE 5e. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.



^ FIGURE 5f. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.

[phrigndumass]

6. 6. Probabilities and Potentials

6. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 69.3%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 56.1%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +13.2% (down from +14.5% last week). McCain’s potential advantage jumped by 1.3 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage stayed the same.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 65.4% and Bush’s potential advantage was 53.0%. Kerry led Bush by +12.4% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +13.2% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 183 … (34.0%)
McCain – 112 … (20.8%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 236 … (43.9%)
McCain – 165 … (30.7%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 373 … (69.3%)
McCain – 165 … (30.7%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 236 … (43.9%)
McCain – 302 … (56.1%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 426 … (79.2%)
McCain – 112 … (20.8%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 183 … (34.0%)
McCain – 355 … (66.0%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.

[phrigndumass]

7. 7. State Poll Averages Comparison

7. State Poll Averages Comparison

Obama’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 46.2% this week, which is a drop of 0.1% from last week. Obama is behind Kerry’s finishing 46.5% state poll average, yet just ahead of where Gore finished in 2000 with 46.1%

McCain’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 44.9% this week, which is a leap of 0.8% since last week.

It’s interesting to note that only one candidate from either party in the past four presidential elections managed to reach a 50.0% poll average majority, and that was George W. Bush in 2004 (50.7%). All other final results from all parties ended below 50.0%.


Comparison of State Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 46.2%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)



^ FIGURE 7a. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the aggregate state poll averages for each candidate, and compares them to the final aggregate state poll averages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.

[phrigndumass]

8. 8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages

8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama climbs three percentage points to 47% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama drops one percentage points to 46%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 46.9% for Obama, which is an increase of 0.4% since last week. Obama is now trailing McCain by 1% in Rasmussen, and leading McCain by 5% in Gallup and by 2.6% in RCP. Our Wigand Electoral Average fell from 59.67 last week to 54.65 this week for Obama, as Florida moved back into McCain’s territory.

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 60.1, down from 62.0 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets ticked up from 62.8 to 62.9 this week.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states falls 5.40 this week to 633.40 for Obama, yet it remains above the majority mark of 600.00. The states gaining ground in trading for Obama this week are: Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. South Carolina stays put, while losses were incurred for Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio and Wisconsin. Obama is doing better than McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 52.8% to 47.2%. This is down 0.4 percentage points from last week for Obama.



^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

[phrigndumass]

9. 9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)

9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Alabama Obama 38, McCain 58 (Rasmussen, 7/31, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Alabama Obama 34, McCain 47, Nader 2, Barr 1 (AEA/Capital Survey, 8/4, +/- 4.1, 571 LV)
Arizona Obama 38, McCain 57 (Rasmussen, 7/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Arizona Obama 40, McCain 52 (Public Policy Polling, 7/31, +/- 3.1, 1000 LV)
Connecticut Obama 53, McCain 40 (Rasmussen, 7/31, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 40, McCain 45 (McLaughlin-R, 7/28, +/- 2.5, 1600 RV)
Florida Obama 44, McCain 50 (Survey USA, 8/3, +/- 3.8, 679 LV)
Florida Obama 44, McCain 47 (Public Policy Polling, 8/2, +/- 3.5, 807 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 47, McCain 38 (Suffolk University, 8/3, +/- 4.9, 400 RV)
Massachusetts Obama 54, McCain 38 (Rasmussen, 8/5, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 49, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 8/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Missouri Obama 44, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 8/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New Jersey Obama 52, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 8/4, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New York Obama 55, McCain 36 (Rasmussen, 8/4, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New York Obama 57, McCain 36 (Quinnipiac University, 8/4, +/- 2.7, 1353 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 24, McCain 56 (Sooner Poll, 7/23, +/- 3.6, 750 LV)
Oregon Obama 48, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 8/4, +/- 4.0, 629 LV)
Washington Obama 47, McCain 35 (Elway Poll, 7/31, +/- 5.0, 405 RV)
Washington Obama 54, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 8/6, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 44, McCain 38 (Wisconsin Policy Research, 8/4, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 8/5, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.

[phrigndumass]

10. 10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls

10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls


States with Undecideds 10% or Greater:
1. Oklahoma – 18.9%
2. West Virginia – 16.4%
3. Tennessee – 11.8%
4. Utah – 10.3%


States with Outdated Polls (Older Than 35 days):
Delaware – Last Poll … 2/28
Hawaii – Last Poll … 2/28
Indiana – Last Poll … 6/23
Maryland – Last Poll … 6/21
Rhode Island – Last Poll … 7/1
Tennessee – Last Poll … 6/24
Utah – Last Poll … 6/19
Vermont – Last Poll … 2/28
West Virginia – Last Poll – 6/2
Wyoming – Last Poll … 5/21

[Demeter]

17. That's a Lot of Data Gap

Will these be forthcoming, is there any way to know? Do the pollsters keep or give a schedule?

[phrigndumass]

19. Good question! I dug this up ...

The link is Electoral-Vote.com's map for September 30, 2004. If you point at a state, it will display the latest poll and the date of that poll. I did the same for August 31, and many of the states had not yet been polled. But by September 30, all the states had been polled.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2004/sep/sep30.html

I guess we can assume most pollsters will wait until September to begin polling every state. Wish there were a schedule!

[RNdaSilva]

25. Bump x 10.

Let's see where we are three weeks from Tuesday.

[phrigndumass]

26. Yep, after the convention and after Labor Day :)

Good morning! :hi:

[RNdaSilva]

29. Yep...

[phrigndumass]

11. 11. Sources and Links

11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com


*********************************************************************


As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[BrklynLiberal]

14. Thank you for this info...

[phrigndumass]

15. yw BL :)

Thanks for reading :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

12. Hi phrigndumass!

You know it's just not the same as good morning, but it'll have to do. :hi:

k&r

:bounce: from LMD

[phrigndumass]

13. It's morning somewhere! :)

:donut: Good morning f4m3s & lmd :hi: :hi: :bounce:

[Demeter]

20. Found You a Like Mind, P-Man!

Mark Nickolas: Popular Vote v. Electoral College (Why The Media Badly Needs A History Lesson)


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-nickolas/popular-vote-v-electoral_b_117525.html?view=screen

Despite Barack Obama's (D) amazingly consistent lead throughout the general election over John McCain (R), the talking heads on cable television returned to their incessant bloviating over whether Obama should be leading by more than just five points over McCain. It's really painful to watch these fools who don't bother to pay attention to history to understand how a five-point popular vote victory almost always translates when it comes to the only metric that matters -- the Electoral College. (Hint: landslide)

So, rather than expect that someone will take a peek at historical data, I figured I'd go ahead and do it myself.

Below are the results from the last 20 presidential elections, listing the Electoral Vote margin by the winner over the loser (or second place finisher), as well as the popular vote margin.

Year Winner EV Margin Pop Vote Margin
2004 Bush 36 2.4
2000 Bush 4 -0.5
1996 Clinton 220 8.5
1992 Clinton 202 5.6
1988 Bush 315 7.8
1984 Reagan 512 18.2
1980 Reagan 440 9.7
1976 Carter 57 2.1
1972 Nixon 503 23.2
1968 Nixon 110 0.7
1964 Johnson 434 22.6
1960 Kennedy 84 0.1
1956 Eisenhower 384 15.4
1952 Eisenhower 353 10.9
1948 Truman 114 4.5
1944 Roosevelt 333 7.5
1940 Roosevelt 367 9.9
1936 Roosevelt 515 24.3
1932 Roosevelt 413 17.7
1928 Hoover 357 17.4



Then, I charted this data into a simple Excel spreadsheet and added a trendline.



Take note of just how large of an electoral landslide results from a five-point popular vote victory. It's pretty massive and usually results in an Electoral Vote margin of about 200. The elections that most closely mirror the margin in the current contest are:

1992: Clinton won the popular vote by 5.6 points, winning the Electoral College by a 370 to 168 margin (a difference of 202);

1948: Truman won the popular vote by 4.5 points, winning the Electoral College by a 303 to 189 margin (a difference of 114).
Also, keep in mind that Obama's current five-plus point lead is with undecideds added to the mix. If you simply allocate undecideds by the percentage each candidate is getting, Obama's lead jumps to close to seven points (w/o undecideds in parentheses):


CBS News: Obama 45-39 (Obama 53.6-46.4, +7.2)
AP/IPSOS: Obama 47-41 (Obama 53.4-46.6, +6.8)
Time: Obama 46-41 (Obama 52.9-47.1, +5.8)


In contrast, Bush's landslide over Dukakis in 1988 happened with a popular vote margin of just 7.8 points and Reagan's rout of Carter in 1980 saw a margin of 9.7 points. In a historical context, a five or six point popular vote victory always translates into a landslide.

So, exactly, what are the dimwits on cable news talking about?

What about a five-point lead do these people think is not large enough when you look at the last century of American presidential elections?

Mark Nickolas is the Managing Editor of Political Base, and this story was from his original post, "Popular Vote v. Electoral College (Why The Media Should Do Its Homework)"

[phrigndumass]

22. That is some mighty tasty data! Worthy of saving.

I caught this the other day when I was at work (lol) but I didn't want to bookmark it there, and I forgot all about it until you posted it just now!

Mr. Short Term Memory (that's me) is grateful to you for this link. It's saved this time. :D

It looks like Obama is pulling similar leads to Truman on the low side (4.5) and Clinton on the high side (5.6). Truman won 303-189-39 and Clinton won 370-168. Without a major third-party candidate like in 1948 (Thurmond), Obama's range could easily be between 340 and 370.

:thumbsup:

[psychmommy]

21. thanks for the math phrig

wow things don't look like they are improving. maybe holding some places. at least nj came up. we need a big margin to make it harder to steal. thanks for the kerry stuff, it helped to put it in perspective a bit. i was getting disappointed for a minute there.

[phrigndumass]

23. yw psychmommy :)

Obama's still leading by 148 electoral votes, if that helps :D

It'll get better for Obama after the convention, VP pick, and the Olympics ads. :hi:

[jefferson_dem]

27. Wow.

Great work. Thanks!

[phrigndumass]

28. Thanks jd :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi: