Tom Campbell • published July 31, 2008 12:15 am
You don’t have to be a meteorologist to forecast what appears likely in North Carolina’s elections. There are many indications that state Democrats may enjoy big victories at the polls November 4th.
For starters, elections officials report huge increases in numbers registering to vote. Some 257,000 have been added to the rolls since January, 51,000 of them since the May primaries. Of that number 145,000 registered as Democrats, while only 17,000 listed the Republican Party, an eight to one registration advantage for Democrats. 95,000 registered as Unaffiliated. Who are these people? We are told many are young and African Americans registering for the first time. It is a safe assumption many have registered to vote for Barack Obama.
We now have 5.9 million registered voters and Bob Hall of the watchdog group Democracy North Carolina is advising local officials to expect a large turnout and long lines, recommending more polling sites for early voting and more polling staff on Election Day. The record turnout of two million in the May primaries would certainly signal heightened voter interest.
Since 1972 North Carolina has averaged a 64 percent voter turnout in presidential years, meaning we should expect 3.8 million voters under normal circumstances. A vote of 4 million or more will bode poorly for Republicans. Even though our state hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976, we haven’t seen a politician captivate and turn out voters like Barack Obama has done. A large contingency of field operatives are poised to knock on doors and turn out the vote. Most polls indicate McCain and Obama are neck-and-neck, however they are usually within the margin of sampling error. They don’t reflect a predicted voter surge coming from newly registered motivated Democrats, the increasing unpopularity of George Bush, or the rapid decline in confidence over the economy. Republicans will be blamed for the war, the economy, and McCain will be accused of a continuation of the Bush presidency.
North Carolina Republicans aren’t helping themselves much. They are clearly getting beat in defining who they are and why people should register Republican. The state GOP has always lagged badly behind in fundraising and with the possible exception of Pat McCrory and Elizabeth Dole, they just don’t have candidates who excite voters.
Senator Elizabeth Dole recognizes the problem; that’s why she is all over TV trying to pull up her numbers. Even though she appears to be widening the margin, the national Democratic Senate Campaign Committee has reserved six million dollars in TV ad time to push Kay Hagan this fall, convinced they can capture this Senate seat. Dole will have cash, but it will be hard to compete with the Six Million Dollar Woman repeatedly hammering Dole’s lackluster first term accomplishments.
If Dole is in trouble, so is Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. His message of change resonates well with voters but being tied in the polls with Democrat Bev Perdue will be small consolation, especially if he can’t compete financially. The storm clouds at the top of the ticket appear likely to rain on his parade. This potential tsunami could sweep all the way down the ballot into Council of State, legislative and even judicial races.
Despite the fact this is still a long-range forecast, you don’t need a Doppler to predict what appears to be a great year for North Carolina Democrats.
Tom Campbell is former assistant North Carolina State Treasurer and is creator/host of NC SPIN, a weekly statewide television discussion of NC issues airing Sundays at 6 a.m. on WLOS-TV. Contact him at www.ncspin.com.
http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200880729044
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