Ricks of 'Wash Post': Don't Celebrate Turnaround in Iraq Just Yet

[DeepModem Mom]

Source: Editor&Publisher

By E&P Staff
Published: November 24, 2007

NEW YORK Thomas Ricks of The Washington Post has been one of the level-headed, and accurate, reporters on the Iraq war since its inception. His book "Fiasco" was one of the best on the subject. Just back from Baghdad again, he sat for a www.washingtonpost.com online chat this week, in which he frequently warned that, despite gains, no one should get too excited about the "turnaround" in U.S. fortunes in Iraq. Here are a few highlights:

Boonsboro, Md.: When will it be okay to state that we are winning in Iraq and all the naysayers ("the war is lost") were wrong? Even the New York Times is admitting things are going well.

Thomas E. Ricks: Well, things are going better. I just got back from Baghdad last week, and it was clear that violence has decreased. But it hasn't gone away. It is only back down to the 2005 level -- which to my mind is kind of like moving from the eighth circle of hell to the fifth. I interviewed dozens of officers and none were willing to say we are winning. What they were saying is that at least now, we are not losing. But to a man, they were enormously frustrated by what they see as the foot-dragging of the Baghdad government.

Bethesda, Md.: Tom, I note you were in Iraq last week and I am really interested in your perspectives on the security in Baghdad and its sustainability. My understanding is that the neighborhoods are safer but am wondering if that's because they have been walled off and ethnically cleansed.

Thomas E. Ricks: Yes, one reason that the city is quieter is because of the presence of American troops. But yes, another reason is that some Sunni neighborhoods are walled off, and other Sunni areas have been ethnically cleansed. In addition, the Shiite death squads, in addition to killing a lot of innocents, also killed some of the car bomb guys, I am told. Where is Iraq going, in political terms? Currently, nowhere. That is the worrisome stalemate I wrote about in last week's article. The U.S. is placing great hope in bottom up movement, and many officials think that provincial elections will break the political logjam....

***

Thomas E. Ricks: I think the Bush Administration's plan is to pass off Iraq to the next administration. They know it isn't going to end on their watch. I think what they would like is to pass along a situation that wouldn't force a Democratic president to pull the plug immediately. As you say, that means aiming to have a force of perhaps 50,000 troops in Iraq by the middle of 2009....

Vienna, Va.: Mr. Ricks, not a question, just a comment: It seems that those who are claiming the surge to be a success either are lowering the bar (for political or other reasons), or simply can't tell the difference between tactics and strategy.

Thomas E. Ricks: Good comment....

Read more: http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003677269

[humbled_opinion]

1. If I were the Democrat Leadership I would not concede that gains

were being made in Iraq in fact I would state for the record that those same gains would be made with or without a U.S. Presence and in fact would happen sooner if we would just leave them to handle their own political mess.

That is the true way to end...get it stop end the war.... I like Obama and Edwards plans for Iraq..

Hillary is just Bushlite.

[Stevepol]

3. Ricks' metaphor is a good one:

To say the surge is working is like saying we moved from the 8th circle of Hell to the 5th. It's still bad, now back to about 2005 levels, and the reasons probably have more to do with other factors (the ethnic cleansing of certain neighborhoods, the death and immigration of so many people, etc.) than with the surge.

[gratuitous]

2. And if the surge was such a swell idea

Why wasn't it implemented sooner?

[sutz12]

5. ...and why did the British withdrawal from Basra work so well? nt

[Dr.Phool]

4. Pessimistic me.

I think it's just a lull before the storm. Everyone sitting back now regrouping.

Things quieted down in Vietnam right before the Tet offensive.

[balantz]

6. Makes sense.

I hate to sound negative, but does anyone else feel a sinister lull in the air?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

7. What turnaround is this, we ask?

[xchrom]

8. where have we heard THIS before:

''It seems that those who are claiming the surge to be a success either are lowering the bar (for political or other reasons),''

the media KNEW bush wasn't up to gore's intellectual capacity -- ''lowered the bar'' for him and found him refreshing and charming.

i can recall memorable posts about the wisdom of ''lowering the bar'' for bush -- and look at what we have -- the ''success'' we call iraq.

could any of us have imagined the extent to which ''lowering the bar'' would have brought all of us?

the media continues to have much to answer for.