Turkey's army won't invade

[Flabbergasted]

Japan Times

Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2007


KURDISH SEPARATISTS
Turkey's army won't invade
By IAN BREMMER


PRAGUE — Just when the smoke from Turkey's domestic political conflicts of the past year had begun to clear, another deadly attack by Kurdish separatists on Turkish soldiers has the government threatening military attacks inside northern Iraq. That prospect raises risks for Turkey, Iraq and the United States. But there are reasons to doubt that the situation is as dangerous as recent headlines suggest.

Turkey accuses Iraqi Kurds of harboring between 3,000 and 3,500 of Turkey's most active Kurdish militants — the PKK separatist guerrillas who are blamed for the deaths of 80 Turkish soldiers so far this year. The trouble reached boiling point on Oct. 7, when Kurdish fighters killed 13 Turkish soldiers inside Turkey near the border with Iraq.

The Turkish public has demanded action, and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government has responded. On Oct. 17, despite pleas for patience and restraint from Iraq and the U.S., Turkish lawmakers voted 507-19 to authorize Erdogan to order cross-border military strikes into Iraq at any time over the next year.

Erdogan has sent Iraqi Kurds a forceful message. But, for several reasons, the Turkish military is likely to limit its operations to small-scale incursions and air strikes on specific targets rather than launch an all-out war.

First, the Turkish military has no interest in embracing the risks that come with involvement in Iraq's sectarian strife. A full-scale invasion might well provoke Iraq's own Kurdish guerrillas into a prolonged and bloody battle with Turkish forces that can only undermine support for Erdogan's government at home and abroad.

more at....

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20071024a1.html

[EST]

1. These folks are a little late.

Turkey already invaded, killed some Kurdish insurgents and fled back across the border.

[Flabbergasted]

2. The article describes exactly that as the likely scenario...and not

a full blown invasion/occupation.