5/3 poll: Dems win w/Nat'l % of vote: (O/H/E) 50/49/50 v Rudi, 58/57/64 v Mitt, 52/50/52 v McCain

[papau]

So all Dems win vs any GOP now in the race - interesting - :-)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18505030/site/newsweek/page/2

The Elephant in the Room
George W. Bush has the lowest presidential approval rating in a generation, and the leading Dems beat every major ’08 Republican. Coincidence?
By Marcus Mabry Newsweek May 5, 2007

May 5, 2007 - It’s hard to say which is worse news for Republicans: that George W. Bush now has the worst approval rating of an American president in a generation, or that he seems to be dragging every ’08 Republican presidential candidate down with him. But According to the new NEWSWEEK Poll, the public’s approval of Bush has sunk to 28 percent, an all-time low for this president in our poll, and a point lower than Gallup recorded for his father at Bush Sr.’s nadir. The last president to be this unpopular was Jimmy Carter who also scored a 28 percent approval in 1979. This remarkably low rating seems to be casting a dark shadow over the GOP’s chances for victory in ’08. The NEWSWEEK Poll finds each of the leading Democratic contenders beating the Republican frontrunners in head-to-head matchups.<snip>
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Former New York City major Rudolph Giuliani receives the highest marks for having shown political courage in the past among the current major candidates from either party (48 percent of registered voters say he has), followed by Hillary Clinton at 43 percent, John McCain at 42, John Edwards at 33 and Barack Obama at 30. Mitt Romney comes in last among the six leading candidates at 11 percent. Clinton receives the highest marks for showing political courage in the current campaign, though, with 34 percent of voters saying she has, followed by 33 percent for Obama, 30 percent for Edwards, 28 for McCain, 25 for Giuliani and 11 for Romney.

Where Clinton remains the undisputed champ is among Democrats. When matched against her main rivals for the Democratic nomination, Clinton is the choice of 51 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters over Obama’s 39 percent; and she defeats Edwards 57 percent to 38 percent. Obama has not substantially narrowed Clinton’s lead since the early March NEWSWEEK poll, where he trailed Clinton by 14 points. Edwards has narrowed Clinton’s lead over him though. Back in March Edwards trailed Clinton by 31 points; now her lead is down to 19 points.<snip>

The actual poll BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18491981/site/newsweek/

1. Do you lean more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?

Total Clinton.... Total Giuliani.... Undec./Other
49%....................46%...............5%

Republicans
9%.....................89%...............2%

Democrats
85%....................12%................3%

Independents
40%.....................53%...............7%

2. Do you lean more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?

Total Obama........Total Giuliani..........Undec./Other
50%...................43%...................7%

Republicans
13%..................83%....................4%

Democrats
81%...................12%..................7%

Independents
43%...................48%..................9%


<snip>SURVEY METHODOLOGY Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,001 adults, 18 and older, conducted May 2-3, 2007. Results are weighted so that the sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for results based on 1,001 adults and 831 registered voters. Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error. The margin of error is plus/minus 7 percentage points for results based on 422 registered Democrats and Dem. leaners and plus/minus 8 percentage points for results based on 324 registered Republicans and Rep. leaners. In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting surveys can also introduce error or bias to poll results.

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. I know it's very early, and any number of things can happen to

change these numbers, for better or worse, but it's pretty clear from these results that Dems are more satisfied with their choices than are Repubs.

It's also pretty clear that Obama & Edwards do better with Independents. And a whopping 60% of Dems would like to see Gore enter the race, and you can count me among them. It's also clear that our chances of winning greatly improve if Romney is their nominee.

[papau]

4. True - Hillary loses 1 to 2 percent nationally - plus there are a few that hate women but won't

tell the pollster - the same problem a black faces - so the polls will be higher than the actual vote. But in all cases - for all candidates - that downside, I think, is covered by the expected split in the "don't know yet" folks.

It really depends on just how biased against the Dems the media will be.

And that can't be seen by current actions since the media has always been only lightly biased for the GOP until the convention. Just how hard they will flame - or as they would put it - even handily without analysis report the burning questions of the day - as presented to them by the GOP - will be critical. They refused to repeat and extend the AWOL story in the Boston Globe in 2000 and I expect that same type of protection will be given the new GOP candidates. Indeed Bush's getting the 15 year old pregnant and then paying for an abortion was kept quiet in 2000, so I expect Fred Thompson's problems will be buried this time around.

[Rydz777]

2. We have to win in the Electoral College too, and

that looks good. The northeast and west coast should be solid. The industrial midwest has been devastated by manufacturing job losses and the "Reagan Democrats" are dropping the Reagan part. The mountain west is trending Democratic (check Colorado and Montana), and even in the southeast working people are feeling the effects of Bush's "free trade.

[papau]

3. It does look good = 18 months out - for a Dem win 11/08 n/t

n/t