Simple Calculus: Why Iran Won in Iraq By Morgan Strong consortiumnews

[Demeter]

http://consortiumnews.com/2007/032907a.html


Simple Calculus: Why Iran Won in Iraq

By Morgan Strong
March 29, 2007


Editor’s Note: In many ways President George W. Bush’s failure in Iraq was preordained before he ordered the invasion in March 2003. The war was a deadly mix of wishful thinking and cultural ignorance.....

The administration insisted on early elections to demonstrate the Iraqi populace was prepared and eager for democratic governance...Iran through its surrogate Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi army provided money and influence, and if necessary coercion, to assure the election of their chosen candidates. Those Shiite candidates won majority control of the Iraqi government.

These elected representatives are tangentially controlled by Iran. Neither Iran nor those elected Shiite representatives who are in control the Iraqi government want a secular democratic state established in Iraq. This Iraqi government wants an Islamic state, modeled after Iran’s to be established in Iraq.

The administration insists the Iraqi government reduce the influence of al-Sadr and his Mahdi Militia if it hopes to maintain American support. The government of Iraq neither wants American support nor an American presence. American support and presence are contrary to its and Iran’s interests.

The government of Iraq has failed to meet a series of demands imposed by President George W. Bush... to provide competent, and sufficient, military strength to fight the insurgency, disarm the Mahdi militia, and reduce the influence of Mqutada al-Sadr. That has failed simply because the Shi’a insurgents, the Mahdi Militia and Muqtada al-Sadr are the government...The government of Iraq will not destroy the Militia that provides it protection and influence. The Iraqi government’s failures are not failures, but a deliberate tactic....

The administration can do nothing now that would salvage American interests in Iraq. Too many irredeemable and inexplicable blunders were made far too early.


Morgan Strong was an adviser on the Middle East to CBS News “60 Minutes,” and other television network news broadcasts. He is a former Professor of Middle Eastern History at Mercy College and S.U.N.Y.

[Dhalgren]

1. This is just sad. I can't begin to explain how wrong this guy is. His

basic premise, that Bush fucked-up and handed Iran a victory, is correct, but all his principals are not. He has his Shite militias mixed up. Iran doesn't support the Mahdi Army, Iran supports the Badr Corps. Iran does not back Al Sadr, it backs SCIRI. And this guy, Morgan Strong, "was an adviser on the Middle East to CBS News “60 Minutes."" No wonder Americans have no idea what is going on in Iraq or anywhere else...

[orwell]

2. Could you point me...

...to something more informative as to the Iranian political connections inside Iraq?

Thanks.

[Dhalgren]

4. Do a search on Juan Cole's site.

www.juancole.com

He has written extensively on the Iran/Shiite militia equation. And Dr. Cole is a major authority on the issue.

:hi:

[orwell]

5. Thanks...

...I'll check it out.

An article I just found does back up your contention that SCIRI is Tehran's main ally in Iraq today, but it also seems that the Iranian leadership has recently made overtures to al-Sadr as a way of covering all political bases.

Thanks for leading me to some interesting questions. Unlike the Bushies, I can never have too much information... :hi:

[Dhalgren]

6. Same here & right back at you!

:hi:

[orwell]

3. Here is an interesting article...

...that buttresses Mr. Strong's contention:

http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370263

BTW: Thanks for the post...