The Edge of the Abyss

[babylonsister]

http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0203-21.htm

The Edge of the Abyss
by Eric Herter

In spite of strong public opposition to our course in the Middle East, there’s rapidly-mounting evidence that Bush intends to attack Iran.

Some may argue that his aggressive moves and rhetoric are a bluff to induce Ahmadinejad to back down. Not likely -- Iran’s President, like ours, is aggressive and stubborn. Also, even if Ahmadinejad unexpectedly renounces his nuclear project, new US “findings” of Iranian complicity in the Iraq insurgency will give the administration justification for the war they want. We saw it happen in the lead-up to Iraq, and it’s happening again.

A friend wrote yesterday, “Latest news indicates that Bush is setting up new bases in Bulgaria and Romania that would host Pentagon war planes that would be used in a first-strike attack on Iran. <…>

“But this is crazy, I hear you saying. The U.S. can't afford another war! The troops are stretched too thin, the country can't pay for another front in this blitzkrieg.

“Well, the answer is that like Hitler, Bush must continue to roll the dice. He is so far out on a limb now that he must go for it all or he loses everything. He and the big corporations, who are driving this empire, have got to make their move now, or it all comes crashing down around them. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain. If the U.S. controls all the Middle East oil then they control China, India, Europe and the rest of the world. Insanity you say? Of course it is.” http://space4peace.blogspot.com>

He’s right. With unsolvable problems in Iraq, growing Congressional opposition, a possible Cheney implication in the felony trial of Scooter Libby, and pressure growing for impeachment investigations, the time to move is now. Bush is moving. Stories about the dangers presented by Iran are pouring out of administration and Pentagon souces. A US military official in the Gulf yesterday compared the current hair-trigger US-Iran situation with Europe in 1914, on the brink of World War One.

more...

[illinoisprogressive]

1. Bush is getting more and more reckless.

[scarletwoman]

2. Billmon had this nailed in April 2006 -- He called it "The Flight Forward".

The Flight Forward

April 16, 2006

<snip>

What we are witnessing (through rips in the curtain of official secrecy) may be an example of what the Germans call the flucht nach vorne – the "flight forward." This refers to a situation in which an individual or institution seeks a way out of a crisis by becoming ever more daring and aggressive (or, as the White House propaganda department might put it: "bold") A familar analogy is the gambler in Vegas, who tries to get out of a hole by doubling down on each successive bet.

Classic historical examples of the flucht nach vornes include Napoleon's attempt to break the long stalemate with Britain by invading Russia,the decision of the Deep South slaveholding states to secede from the Union after Lincoln's election, and Milosevic's bid to create a "greater Serbia" after Yugoslavia fell apart.

As these examples suggest, flights forward usually don't end well – just as relatively few gamblers emerge from a doubling-down spree with their shirts still on their backs.

But of course, most gamblers don't have the ability to call in an air strike on the casino. For Bush, or the neocons, or both, regime change in Iran not only may appear doable, it may also look like the only way out of the spectacular mess they have created in Iraq.

sw

[undergroundpanther]

3. Bush's faith

His faith in that bastard Leo Strauss,(yes One of Clinton's cabinet members was Strauss-ian and that's why I think he can even Stomach the Bushes he halfway believes that SHIT.),That dominionist Christianity is capitalism CULT(which BTW is downright evil)And the globalist agenda,among other darker things. The agenda is no less than dominate the world in every way one can conceive of. That is what they want, full. spectrum. dominance . over me, you and everything else on this planet in every way.If they cannot control the world they will do their damnedest to destroy it so no one will be able to live in peace after the empire of elitist fuck wads crashes.That is how vile these assholes are.

[bighughdiehl]

4. I don't think it's gunna happen

People have been talking about this for a couple years, and there have always supposedly been "indications". If they intended to do it, it have been done already. Even if they do, it is possible they can't logistically pull it off. Where to get the troops, equipment? Iran has a real military and a bigger population to turn against us if we bob the shit out of 'em.
So, I bet it's all smack talk-which is a good thing, it would be even more disastrous than Iraq. A draft? puhleez, there are have been rumors of that, too since '04, never happens. It would solidify opposition to the war in Iraq and wherever else. The cabal learned that from the 60s.

[scarletwoman]

5. People have been talking about this for a couple years because the PLANS for this have been

made over the past few years.

The plans call for air strikes, not a land invasion. So your point about troops and equipment is irrelevent.

The reason it hasn't happened yet is that they were hoping things would get cooled down in Iraq first. Since it became apparent some time back that this wasn't going to happen anytime soon, they finally just went ahead and ordered the carrier groups in place in the Persian Gulf.

And under the cover of the "surge" they've set up Patriot missile batteries in Baghdad, and prepared bases in Eastern Europe for launching the bombing runs.

This isn't a bluff, this is going to happen. Bushco has been busy setting it all up. Pretty much everything is in place now -- including the msm-disseminated propaganda -- the war on Iran will commence very soon.

sw

[bighughdiehl]

6. Hmmm.....

Come to think of it, I remember reading about stuff going on in the Balkans pointing to your talk of Eastern Europe. I guess if they really want to, they could do some airstrikes, at most, and do it right at the end of the term in '08, then let the next prez...could very well be a Dem, Hillary, Obama, whoever....clean up this latest big pile of shit on the floor.

[BeFree]

7. I tend to agree

But then after witnessing 9/11 and there being only 10% of us that were wise, another Pearl Harbor type of event could change all the things weighing in peace's favor.

And I don't doubt they want to attack and control the world's greatest oil reserves. So we sit and we watch, and hope the true patriots in position of power keep a new 9/11 type of event from happening.

[scarletwoman]

9. What "true patriots" are there in positions of power? Do you have anyone in mind?

I'd like to know who you're thinking of, because I just don't see any.

sw

[BeFree]

10. People like

Joe Wilson. Never heard of him before PlameGate, eh? Career diplomats, and even some carrer CIA, military.. types like that. Lets hope.

[scarletwoman]

12. Joe Wilson is not in a position of power. I was thinking of elected officials,

but all dissenting voices are welcome, of course. The thing is, if the only people speaking out are outside of the main power structure, they won't really be able to effect much change.

sw

[BeFree]

13. Well

Joe is kinda responsible for the hit on Cheney. There are many patriots in government with similar powers.

[alittlelark]

11. Can I have some of what you're smokin'?

Really - it's been almost 20 years dry for me - I need a connection - and your guy must have the REALLY GOOD STUFF!:smoke: :hippie:

[teryang]

8. i don't think it's likely that Syria and Pakistan react as stated

I fundamentally agree with the author's point of view but Syria is in a demonstrably weak position and has nothing to gain by engaging in a general conflagration wherein Israel and US "go for broke."

Pakistan would be most likely to continue doing what they are doing now and perhaps enhance their efforts in Afghanistan to drive out western forces by backing the Taliban. In fact NATO and US forces there, completely overextended would be forced to withdraw, as central Asian states declare neutrality and effectively close off US air operations and logistics. Pakistan's strategic arsenal is a deterrent reserved for use against India and would not be squandered elsewhere. I think the possibility exists an errant warhead or two could find its way to a proxy delivery system and end up in Tel Aviv but this effort might take years in response to conceal its origin. Hezbollah or a Hezbollah look alike could be the avenue for delivery. Then the question of the integrity of Israel's nuclear forces becomes a wild card in terms of command and control from a nation with no strategic territorial depth.

I envision the proximate result of US aerial attacks on Iran to play out entirely in the Persian gulf region and am of the opinion that Iranian missile attacks on Israel are a waste of time, tactically and strategically, due to the limited accuracy and impact of these weapons.

Clearly the land battle would focus on Iraq and those oil rich portions of Iran proximate to Iraq. Indeed many have speculated that this is territory that the US energy and banking complex covets. The naval battle would be two fold, first to control the straits of Hormuz. Limited US landings in Iran with occupation might occur to control significant waterfront territory and to destroy heavily fortified and concealed cruise missile sites or other naval threats. Secondly, US air and naval forces would destroy unfriendly oil infrastructure and protect friendly oil infrastructure in Arab states. If Iran chooses political targets rather than economic infrastructure in their targeting efforts, they will lose the conflict for oil lines of communication quickly.

An unconventional strategy of obstruction of commerce and harassment to disrupt the world economy would represent the most effective course for Iran. As in Iraq, the apparent lack of a substantial conventional defense would be misunderstood at first by the west and something akin to a military victory might be claimed early. Erratic unscheduled and unconventional attacks on west persian gulf infrastructure and shipping lanes would take their toll OVER A PERIOD OF YEARS. Such a strategy would aim at exhaustion of Euro-American strategic petroleum reserves.

Such an eventuality would be possible as Iran receives the covert but substantial military and financial support of China and Russia. Any nuclear attacks from Israel would result in complete energy cut offs from Russia to Europe and Israel. China would absorb Russian energy production surplus wherever possible. Both countries would claim to have nothing to do with the Iranian conflict. India would pressure all concerned for a cease fire and negotiated settlement as their country would sink into an economic abyss without relatively secure and economic energy supplies. The US would try to enlist the use of their armed forces in the conflict, unsuccessfully. Due to the European energy conundrum, eastern European countries would be unethusiastic supporters of the US war effort after several thousand casualties and a very cold winter.

The best case scenario for Israel and the US would be a purported victory where the straits are controlled, Iranian oil infrastructure is destroyed to the detriment of China, portions of Iran are occupied successfully, and there is no apparent ruling authority left in Tehran. On the other side, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards operate as a de facto guerilla government operation funded by our international rivals. They fight us in Iraq and Iran in an unprecedented war of attrition, sabatoging infrastructure out of area whenever and wherever feasible. What results is an unconventional and interminable war on a much larger geographical and economic range. Supported by China and Russia covertly the war could go on for decades and periodically result in isolated nuclear incidents with diastrous consequences worldwide.