Stephen Zunes: Bush's Iraq Speech Annotated

[marmar]

from CommonDreams:

Published on Thursday, January 11, 2007 by Foreign Policy in Focus
Bush's Iraq Speech Annotated
by Stephen Zunes

“Tonight in Iraq, the Armed Forces of the United States are engaged in a struggle that will determine the direction of the global war on terror—and our safety here at home. The new strategy I outline tonight will change America's course in Iraq, and help us succeed in the fight against terror.”

The broad consensus among strategic analysts, including those in the U.S. military and intelligence agencies, is that the struggle engaged by the U.S. armed forces, despite their enormous sacrifices, has compromised efforts to counter international terrorism and has made America less safe. If succeeding in the fight against terrorism was really the administration's goal, President Bush would call for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq .

“When I addressed you just over a year ago, nearly 12 million Iraqis had cast their ballots for a unified and democratic nation. The elections of 2005 were a stunning achievement. We thought that these elections would bring the Iraqis together—and that as we trained Iraqi security forces, we could accomplish our mission with fewer American troops.”

As many analysts pointed out at the time, the timing and circumstances of the U.S.-organized elections actually strengthened sectarian divisions and the mere training of Iraqi armed forces—large elements of which are more loyal to various political, ethnic, and sectarian factions than they are to a unified Iraq—would not result in a stable and democratic society.

“But in 2006, the opposite happened. The violence in Iraq—particularly in Baghdad—overwhelmed the political gains the Iraqis had made. Al-Qaida terrorists and Sunni insurgents recognized the mortal danger that Iraq's elections posed for their cause. And they responded with outrageous acts of murder aimed at innocent Iraqis. They blew up one of the holiest shrines in Shia Islam—the Golden Mosque of Samarra—in a calculated effort to provoke Iraq's Shia population to retaliate. Their strategy worked. Radical Shia elements, some supported by Iran, formed death squads. And the result was a vicious cycle of sectarian violence that continues today.”

Elements of the insurgency have indeed deliberately provoked sectarian conflict. However, it is important to remember that until the 2003 U.S. invasion and occupation, Iraq had maintained a longstanding history of secularism and a strong national identity among its Arab population despite its sectarian differences. Top analysts in the CIA and State Department, as well as large numbers of Middle East experts, warned that a U.S. invasion of Iraq could result in a violent ethnic and sectarian conflict, but this apparently did not seem to bother the Bush administration. U.S. occupation authorities—in an apparent effort to divide and rule—encouraged sectarianism by dividing up authority based not on technical skills or ideological affiliation but ethnic and religious identity. As with Lebanon, however, such efforts have actually exacerbated divisions, with virtually every political question debated not on its merits but on which group it potentially benefits or harms. This has led to great instability, with political parties, parliamentary blocs, and government ministries breaking down along sectarian lines.

Iraq's Sunni Arab minority, regardless of their feelings about Saddam Hussein's regime, has long identified with Arab nationalism and distrusts the pro-Iranian links of much of the Shiite leadership. These affiliations have led many Sunni Arabs to support the insurgency. Seeing their government faced with a growing insurgency and their community falling victim to terrorist violence, the Shiites have responded with aggressive counter-insurgency and counter-terrorist operations against the Sunni community, primarily targeting civilians, with U.S. forces unable or unwilling to stop it. In short, President Bush is essentially blaming the victims rather than acknowledging the U.S. role in the country's disintegration along sectarian lines.

“The situation in Iraq is unacceptable to the American people—and it is unacceptable to me. Our troops in Iraq have fought bravely. They have done everything we have asked them to do. Where mistakes have been made, the responsibility rests with me.”

It is refreshing for President Bush to finally acknowledge that he has made mistakes and to accept responsibility. However, based on his proposed plans to address the situation he is primarily responsible for causing, it is obvious that he has not learned from those mistakes. The key lesson not learned is that the invasion by Western forces of an Arab country has always led to violent resistance. The larger the force, the greater the violent resistance. .....(more)

The rest of the article is at: http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0111-25.htm

[emlev]

1. Stephen Zunes is very knowledgeable--a great, thoughtful guy eom