The gathering storms: How man is making the wind blow

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

By Michael McCarthy and Abigail Townsend

http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article1521855.ece

<snip>

Professor Kerry Emmanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology caused a stir with a paper published in Nature just three weeks before Katrina hit, in which he said that hurricanes had doubled in power since 1950, with most of the increase in force occurring in the past 30 years.

Another paper published in September 2005 reported that the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes - the strongest - had almost doubled in number over the same period.

But not all researchers accept those conclusions (which, incidentally, are very unwelcome to the Bush administration with its continuing stance of de-emphasising the potential effects of global warming). Some doubt has been cast on the accuracy of earlier hurricane data, which might make comparisons invalid. One observer who is following the debate closely is the authoritative British science writer Fred Pearce, who has just published a study of the latest climate change research entitled The Last Generation. "Not every hurricane researcher is convinced," he said. "Some think we may be seeing no more than natural fluctuations in hurricane activity. And they say that we can't be sure how many hurricanes there were, and how strong they were, 30 or 40 years ago.

"But the evidence is growing ever stronger that hurricanes are becoming more intense, and maybe more frequent too, as a result of global warming...

[pitohui]

1. not what jeff masters said

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?tstamp=200609

go down to sept. 8

he says that the way we've changed el nino so that it comes in the fall may mean an end to the terrible hurricane seasons ("may" not "will" too soon to tell)

if this be true, 2005 will turn out to be the last and also a transitional period between the old atlantic hurricane cycle and the new cycle where el nino suppresses the storms because it comes in autumn

this would actually be pretty cool IF it were true

right now i get the idea that NOBODY knows how we've changed the weather

we just have to pray that we used the power for good and not for evil...

[dipsydoodle]

2. If , as usual, El Nino came and went

than that may be true. If however it came and stayed you could have an even bigger problem. It is now thought that an El nino which may have lasted c. 100 years ended some of the early South American civilizations.

[TheMadMonk]

3. Bite your bloody tongue. Just because you Septics...

are too stupid to not build on top of coastal swamps is no reason to be happy that we Aussies will suffer in perpetuity. (Your Fall, is our ruddy growing season.)

Nothing personal, I'm just a little peeved that "The Greated Nation On Earth" :sarcasm: believes that it deserves a free ride at the expense of the rest of us.

(BTW: I Will cheer if and when our own swamp dwellers get their comeupance too.)

(edit: before I get totally roasted. This is not an attack on the citizens of New Orleans. I accept that the city was founded well before anyone could have known the ultimate consequences of doing so. My contempt is soley for those who live where they do for the 'sea view/ambience/lifestyle'.)