Seymour Hersh: Watching Lebanon

[carincross]

http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060821fa_fact

In the days after Hezbollah crossed from Lebanon into Israel, on July 12th, to kidnap two soldiers, triggering an Israeli air attack on Lebanon and a full-scale war, the Bush Administration seemed strangely passive. “It’s a moment of clarification,” President George W. Bush said at the G-8 summit, in St. Petersburg, on July 16th. “It’s now become clear why we don’t have peace in the Middle East.” He described the relationship between Hezbollah and its supporters in Iran and Syria as one of the “root causes of instability,” and subsequently said that it was up to those countries to end the crisis. Two days later, despite calls from several governments for the United States to take the lead in negotiations to end the fighting, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that a ceasefire should be put off until “the conditions are conducive.”

The Bush Administration, however, was closely involved in the planning of Israel’s retaliatory attacks. President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney were convinced, current and former intelligence and diplomatic officials told me, that a successful Israeli Air Force bombing campaign against Hezbollah’s heavily fortified underground-missile and command-and-control complexes in Lebanon could ease Israel’s security concerns and also serve as a prelude to a potential American preëmptive attack to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations, some of which are also buried deep underground…The Israeli plan, according to the former senior intelligence official, was “the mirror image of what the United States has been planning for Iran.” ...

The Pentagon consultant told me that intelligence about Hezbollah and Iran is being mishandled by the White House the same way intelligence had been when, in 2002 and early 2003, the Administration was making the case that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. “The big complaint now in the intelligence community is that all of the important stuff is being sent directly to the top—at the insistence of the White House—and not being analyzed at all, or scarcely,” he said. “It’s an awful policy and violates all of the N.S.A.’s strictures, and if you complain about it you’re out,” he said. “Cheney had a strong hand in this.”

[Jeroen]

1. Plan for Iran before Bush gets out of office

This part is unbelievable:

Cheney’s office supported the Israeli plan, as did Elliott Abrams, a deputy national-security adviser, according to several former and current officials. (A spokesman for the N.S.C. denied that Abrams had done so.) They believed that Israel should move quickly in its air war against Hezbollah. A former intelligence officer said, “We told Israel, ‘Look, if you guys have to go, we’re behind you all the way. But we think it should be sooner rather than later—the longer you wait, the less time we have to evaluate and plan for Iran before Bush gets out of office.’ ”

[no_hypocrisy]

2. Welcome to DU carincross. I find this paragraph "telling":

Cheney’s office supported the Israeli plan, as did Elliott Abrams, a deputy national-security adviser, according to several former and current officials. (A spokesman for the N.S.C. denied that Abrams had done so.) They believed that Israel should move quickly in its air war against Hezbollah. A former intelligence officer said, “We told Israel, ‘Look, if you guys have to go, we’re behind you all the way. But we think it should be sooner rather than later—the longer you wait, the less time we have to evaluate and plan for Iran before Bush gets out of office.’ ”

On edit: Ah geez, this is the first time I have ever posted where the immediate predecessor was practically the mirror-image of my post.

[Punkingal]

3. Must read article....

Cheney, AGAIN. Along with the convicted criminal Elliott Abrams. It would be almost unbelievable if they weren't so transparent. I am fully convinced that Cheney is the biggest danger this country has ever faced.

[Dover]

5. Cheney, big oil, & the military industrial complex - our own Axis of Evil

[katty]

11. darth cheney has been around for 30+yrs..he's a powerful deathstar

[PaDem]

12. wait until George Allen becomes President.......

look out!

[enough]

4. Nothing will change those minds.

snip>

The surprising strength of Hezbollah’s resistance, and its continuing ability to fire rockets into northern Israel in the face of the constant Israeli bombing, the Middle East expert told me, “is a massive setback for those in the White House who want to use force in Iran. And those who argue that the bombing will create internal dissent and revolt in Iran are also set back.”

Nonetheless, some officers serving with the Joint Chiefs of Staff remain deeply concerned that the Administration will have a far more positive assessment of the air campaign than they should, the former senior intelligence official said. “There is no way that Rumsfeld and Cheney will draw the right conclusion about this,” he said. “When the smoke clears, they’ll say it was a success, and they’ll draw reinforcement for their plan to attack Iran.”

In the White House, especially in the Vice-President’s office, many officials believe that the military campaign against Hezbollah is working and should be carried forward. At the same time, the government consultant said, some policymakers in the Administration have concluded that the cost of the bombing to Lebanese society is too high. “They are telling Israel that it’s time to wind down the attacks on infrastructure.”

snip>

A high-level American military planner told me, “We have a lot of vulnerability in the region, and we’ve talked about some of the effects of an Iranian or Hezbollah attack on the Saudi regime and on the oil infrastructure.” There is special concern inside the Pentagon, he added, about the oil-producing nations north of the Strait of Hormuz. “We have to anticipate the unintended consequences,” he told me. “Will we be able to absorb a barrel of oil at one hundred dollars? There is this almost comical thinking that you can do it all from the air, even when you’re up against an irregular enemy with a dug-in capability. You’re not going to be successful unless you have a ground presence, but the political leadership never considers the worst case. These guys only want to hear the best case.”

snip>

[many a good man]

6. Israel's humiliation in Lebanon devastates Iran war plans

Says Iran helped Hezbollah build heavily fortified underground bunkers so it was seen as a proving ground for a possible US air attack on Iranian hardened sites. It was a big failure, proves ground troops are unavoidable, and hardens opposition among the populace.

Interesting how Hersh compares how Israel had Arab nations condemning Hezbollah in the early days-- but lost all sympathy because of its brutish heavy-handedness, to the American response to 911. He draws many parallels. US and Israel strategic positions are both severely degraded.

[bronxiteforever]

7. Shows the purge mentality in our national security too

All they want is the party line-how many people have been fired or silenced about OUR NATIONAL SECURITY because of political considerations put upon them by the GOP.
There should be hell to pay and congressional hearings about this too.

[eccles12]

8. I do believe that America is in serious trouble.

It will take decades to weed the American government of the cabal that has set the ME in flames and the American nation toward self-destruction.

[ShockediSay]

9. Wow n/t

[RedEarth]

10. Very interesting...........thanks for posting