Hazbollah and Israel still kicking ASS!! despite ceasefire

[bigdarryl]

Just heard that Hezbollah just shot down a Israeli helicopter. and Israel is going further into Lebonnon with tanks and troops.

[MADem]

1. Well, the thing isn't ratified yet, in any event

They're both getting in the final blows before the bell.

Odds are, it won't hold. But you never know.

If it DOES hold, that means Hizb'Allah is out of ammo.

[bigdarryl]

2. Yep it's not over until the fat lady sings

Also JUST!! heard Hezbollah is refusing to disarm South of Lebonnon. Well this throws a monkey wrench in the whole thing. to be honest i think the only reason this ceasefire was agreed on is the preasure from the Bush administration to get it on the Sunday talk shows so they can look good i know that sound crazy but from this administration it doesn't.

[MADem]

3. I can't see them disarming either at this point

They don't have sufficient political clout, and there are more than a few people who are pissed off at them for bringing this shit on--they're not really dealing from a huge amount of strength, yet. They can try to play this "standoff while the bystanders get slaughtered" as a victory, but I doubt it will play that way for long, especially if they think about starting it up yet again--people had gotten used to peace, and they're pissed. Also, Nasrallah and crew haven't enough momentum to transition to a purely political and social organization. Plus, the cash from Iran, who wants a proxy militia in the heart of the Arab world, would dry up so fast they'd wet themselves...and that would destroy their political ambitions.

Of course, if they're out of ammo and the roads are closed, they can disarm "for now" and then, while UNIFIL is playing volleyball instead of observing and reporting, they'll rearm again.

For anything to work, the UN guys have GOT to have an agenda, clear ROE, mandated, regular reporting requirements AND a quality workforce. A bunch of assholes on vacation this time is not gonna cut it.