After Fidel, no deluge

[kskiska]

Alfredo Duran, Bay of Pigs soldier turned voice of moderation, says Miami's angry old guard of Cuban exiles won't like what follows Castro.

By Mark Schone

Among South Florida's half-million-strong Cuban community, hopes are high for rapid change in Havana now that 79-year-old Fidel Castro seems near his long-awaited end. But Miami lawyer Alfredo Duran says his fellow exiles are laboring under a misconception. Duran left Cuba in that first wave of middle-class refugees more than 40 years ago, but unlike many of his generation, he's been back, and his sense of what is possible is grounded in experience.

(snip)

That doesn't sound like what the Miami exiles have been fantasizing about all these years. They're not expecting the old regime to continue with new leaders.

There's two types of people in Miami. The old Cubans, the ones who came prior to the 1980s, they would probably wish the U.S. Marines would invade Cuba and really have a complete overthrow. Those who came after the 1980s, who have a more benevolent view, what they would like to see is really a transition where the people of Cuba would not suffer as much, where things would go towards normalization, where ultimately democracy would be established. But they don't want a violent overthrow. They want basically an evolution of the system.

(snip)

What happens to the people in the anti-Castro movement when the bogeyman is dead?

They will have to adjust. The anti-Castro movement is becoming more and more moderate. You only have a few ultra-right-wing groups that are at all effective, and mostly they are very old men. They will adjust to the new system and try to bring about the trend for democracy, the travel back and forth, a freer economy.

They won't lose interest?

A lot of them still want to roll the clock back to 1959 both politically and economically. A lot of them would like to get their property back on the backs of the U.S. Marines. I certainly hope that doesn't happen. Those people are out of touch with what the reality of Cuba is now. Cuba has had tremendous social and political changes. It's not going to be easy to turn back the clock.

more…
http://salon.com/news/feature/2006/08/02/duran/

[Demeter]

1. The Old Guard Will Die Off With Castro

and the issue will be truly laid to rest (except for the corporations who lost their booty and never forget. Although the Enronization of America will probably lay the corporations to rest, too.)