The Deficit - In Calculating the Shortfall, Likely Costs Are Left Out

[papau]

the very likely costs in the years to come that are left out of the Administration's calculation of the budget deficit.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/07/politics/07deficit.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
February 7, 2006
The Deficit
In Calculating the Shortfall, Likely Costs Are Left Out
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS
WASHINGTON, Feb. 6 — On paper, President Bush's budget seems to meet his promise of cutting the federal deficit in half by the time he leaves office.

But in practice, the budget is much less realistic than it appears because it omits nearly a half-trillion dollars in costs that are likely to be incurred over the next five years.
The omissions include any costs for the war in Iraq after 2007, any additional reconstruction costs for New Orleans after 2006 and any plan for preventing a huge expansion in the alternative minimum tax after the end of this year.

And because Mr. Bush's blueprint is limited to the next five years, it offers little guidance on how he would restrain the soaring costs of Medicare and Social Security as the nation's 70 million-plus baby boomers begin to retire in 2008.

If all of the White House proposals and projections are taken at face value, the budget deficit will climb to $423 billion this fiscal year and then shrink to $208 billion by 2009.
That would fulfill Mr. Bush's promise to halve the deficit, but only if he manages to avoid the gremlins that have bedeviled his previous plans.
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