Bolivia’s Elections on Sunday – What to Watch For

[CHIMO]

Many eyes, both in Bolivia and around the world, will be focused on tomorrow’s important national elections. However, what the vote means and how it will play out over the next few weeks requires a bit of local understanding and analysis. Remember (as so few foreign reporters seem to): Winning first place does not mean you are elected President. Not unless you win 51% of the vote, which no one seems likely to. The winner will be selected, from among the top two finishers, by Congress in January

Here’s what The Democracy Center will be watching for and what our readers might want to watch for as well:

This is obvious, but there are nuances to look for. Polling results have been pretty much the same since the start of the campaign: Evo Morales in first with somewhere between 34-37% of the vote, Tuto Quiroga in second with 25-27%, Samuel Doria Medina coming in third at around 15% and the rest trailing below 10%. There may be some late switching from Medina to the marginal MNR candidate. In other words, as far as the polling goes, no late surge for either of the top two.

However, the actual voting could yield results very different.

http://www.democracyctr.org/blog/index.htm