http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=57&ItemID=8885Climate Change and Human Health
by Paul R. Epstein
October 07, 2005
New England Journal of Medicine
In 1998, Hurricane Mitch dropped six feet of rain on Central America in three days. In its wake, the incidence of malaria, dengue fever, cholera, and leptospirosis soared. In 2000, rain and three cyclones inundated Mozambique for six weeks, and the incidence of malaria rose fivefold. In 2003, a summer heat wave in Europe killed tens of thousands of people, wilted crops, set forests ablaze, and melted 10 percent of the Alpine glacial mass.
This summer's blistering heat wave was unprecedented with regard to intensity, duration, and geographic extent. More than 200 U.S. cities registered new record high temperatures. In Phoenix, Arizona, sustained temperatures above 100°F (38°C) for 39 consecutive days, including a week above 110°F (43°C), took a harsh toll on the homeless. Then came Hurricane Katrina, gathering steam from the heated Gulf of Mexico and causing devastation in coastal communities.
These sorts of extreme weather events reflect massive and ongoing changes in our climate to which biologic systems on all continents are reacting. So concluded the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,1 a collaboration of more than 2000 scientists from 100 countries. In 2001, the panel concluded that humans are playing a major role in causing these changes, largely through deforestation and the combustion of fossil fuels that produce heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide.
Since 2001, we've learned substantially more. The pace of atmospheric warming and the accumulation of carbon dioxide are quickening; polar and alpine ice is melting at rates not thought possible several years ago2; the deep ocean is heating up, and circumpolar winds are accelerating; and warming in the lower atmosphere is retarding the repair of the protective "ozone shield" in the stratosphere. Moreover, ice cores that are drilled in Greenland indicate that the climate can change abruptly. Given the current rate of carbon dioxide buildup and the projected degree of global warming, we are entering uncharted seas.
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