U.S. must learn to think the unthinkable - SF Chronicle

[Coastie for Truth]

U.S. must learn to think the unthinkable - Storm damage shouldn't have been a surprise - Eamonn Kelly

Nearly two weeks after Hurricane Katrina ripped through the Gulf Coast, we remain haunted by the images of hungry, homeless and ill Americans in scenes of abandonment and helplessness. The word that still comes to mind is "unbelievable."

Yet, both the magnitude of the damage caused by the catastrophe and the extent to which it came as a surprise are entirely predictable. The real failure is that we still have not learned first to think the unthinkable and then believe it.

The catchphrase "thinking about the unthinkable" isn't new. It originated in 1962 with a book by that title from the pioneering futurist Herman Kahn. Kahn broke new intellectual ground when he argued that the United States needed to systematically imagine a future after the unthinkable -- nuclear war -- and then prepare for survival.

Just as we learned to think the unthinkable about nuclear war, especially after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we now need to face up to the new realities of today's challenges -- whether they're natural disasters like Katrina and the Asian tsunami or terrorist attacks like Sept. 11 and the London bombings.

But as we've learned again and again, it is painfully difficult for human beings to think this way. Cognitive bias distorts our ability to prepare for and respond to events of the magnitude that struck New Orleans. For instance, President Bush said three days after the hurricane hit, "I don't think anyone anticipated the breach of the levees," when planners, academics, government officials and journalists had been predicting that exact scenario for about four decades.

[Jack Rabbit]

1. More . . .

Our failure to invest in adequate infrastructure is symptomatic of our inability to believe the unthinkable about the aftermath of a major infrastructure collapse. The levee breaches could have been prevented with $18 billion in repairs to the New Orleans system before the hurricane, according to Army Corps of Engineers. It will now cost an estimated $100 billion to rebuild a shattered region.

Historically, Americans are much better at creating infrastructure than maintaining it. We hate to pay higher taxes to cover maintenance even if they are the best way to share the burden of such beneficial public goods.

[jobycom]

2. That always surprises me, too

I was surprised to hear people on 9-11 saying they never believed something like that could happen to them, and I felt the same thing after Katrina. There were a lot of threads just before Katrina about the potential damage it could do, and still people seemed surprised.

Growing up on the Coast, it's very common to mutter from time to time when passing a large beach structure that it would never survive the next hurricane. I've had many conversations over the years about how the next hurricane could wipe out everything. People who had been on the Coast a long time didn't seem surprised, and I think that's one reason Mississippi is rebuilding so quickly--there wasn't a period of shock and denial for most people. I think many in New Orleans weren't shocked, either.

The problem was, the people in charge of disaster management on the federal level were in shock and denial, and couldn't imagine it happening here, and that's why they couldn't respond.

I think people like Naygin, and Guiliani, (and Gore and Kerry) understand worst case scenarios, and have no illusions about our safety. Sadly, BushCo doesn't share that awareness. So when something catastrophic happens, their first instinct is to assume it's not really that bad.

[Benhurst]

3. The article should have started off "U.S. Needs to Learn to Think" and

gone from there.

[Demeter]

5. Specifically: THINK IMPEACHMENT NOW

Prosecuting Clinton weakened and cheapened impeachment. But impeaching and convicting Bush and his buddies would put new starch into the body of law.

[necso]

4. Emperor Hirohito's Rescript to Japanese Troops:

"We trust that you officers and men of the Imperial forces will comply with our intention and will maintain a solid unity and strict discipline in your movements and that you will bear the hardest of all difficulties, bear the unbearable and leave an everlasting foundation of the nation."

One might argue that in order to bear the unbearable, it is necessary to think the unthinkable.

One might well.

[phantom power]

6. It's always been a pet peeve of mine...

...when people call this or that disaster scenario "unthinkable." Most of them aren't just thinkable, they are inevitable. "Not if, but when, yada yada." I've even seen people call disasters that actually happened "unthinkable." :banghead:

Now we have an entire administration that governs based on the principle of calling every disaster "unthinkable," and really not thinking about it.

[Karenina]

7. The known quantities were

the inevitability of the event
the damage it would do

The POLICY CONSIDERATIONS WERE

Who would die
how it would change the political construct
how the land could be condemned and seized
can *we get away with this on American soil

[TexasBushwhacker]

9. My thoughts too

It's not like it's the first time Bush told a bald faced LIE!

"I don't think anyone anticipated the breech of the levees" - LIE

“Had I known that the enemy was going to use airplanes to strike America, to attack us. I would have used very resource, every asset, every power of this government to protect the American people.” (03.25.04) - LIE (2.5 years after the PDB titled "Bin Laden Determined to Strike US)

If you ask me, this land grab is only rivaled by what we've taken from Native Americans.

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. The real unthinkable: the USA 'elected' a selfish moron in thrall

to the oil business. Twice.

25 years ago, a leading British satire programme sang "I believe that the devil is ready to repent - but I can't believe Ronald Reagan is President". Bush Jr. is ten times the fool that Reagan was.

The 21st Century must have the worst outlook of any century the world has seen. And Bush is more responsible than anyone.