How economic superpowers rise

[dArKeR]

Anti-Japanese riots across China have heightened tensions in Asia. Indeed China-mania, a mixture of hopes, but mostly fears, is sweeping the world due to China's rapid economic rise. Should the world really be more fearful than hopeful?
Americans fear their markets being flooded by Chinese goods. Mexico, Brazil, Central Europe, Indonesia and even Sri Lanka are worried about competition from lower wages. Europeans may be more cheerful, believing that the Chinese market will open not only for European engineering products and machine tools to equip the new workshop of the world, but also for luxury goods and even the tourism demanded by a new and affluent Chinese middle class. Everyone feels that a seismic shift is under way.

Such rapid industrial rises are rare, but not unprecedented. The most interesting analogies are Germany's rise in the 19th century and Japan's in the 20th.

Even prior to that time, England was the economic wunderkind of Europe. What had been an offshore European island with bad weather emerged as the world's major economy, whose products, from textiles to railroad equipment, came to dominate world markets. England was a pioneer in industrialization and was deeply shocked by the presumption of newcomers who soon entered the same stage.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2005/04/19/2003251115

[Dcitizen]

1. will this growth secure peace in Asia and world in coming decades?

[SweetLeftFoot]

2. Hmmmm ...

while I great fan of English imperialism, I do think the writer sells them a bit short here. English power was consolodating from 1588 onwards, once the Aramada was defeated and English naval power secured. The Industrial revolution was the icing on the cake and actually propelled the US to economic superpower status more than it did Britain.

That said, it is interesting to note that Australia (my home country) has started talks on an FTA with Chin.

[bemildred]

3. I thought the FTA talks were a fascinating bit too. nt

[SweetLeftFoot]

4. Yeah

Just signed one with the US and now China ... foot in each camp.

[bemildred]

5. Exactly. A week or so back there was a story agonizing over the idea

that reality required that Oz get along with China, and that simply
being buddies with Uncle Sugar at the expense of closer and more
significant economic partners might be a bad idea. Now we see that
being put into action.

[SweetLeftFoot]

6. Sort of

the way I see it it's going to be China that buys increasing amounts of our raw materials - over and above what they do - and provides our touriosm market with a vast pool of soon to be cashed up vicitors - sort of like Japan was 20 years ago.

Obviously we need to keep onside with the US - because if you don't, you get screwed on (as Chris Boyce tried to show us back in 1975).

Problem is, we could very easily get caught in the middle. FWIW - I can't see war between China and the US. They may come to some deal to allow both sides to shoot down a few planes and sink a few ships to appease the madder elements of both population were war to break out over Taiwan but the PTB in the US know there is waaaaaaay too much money to be lost fighting China.

[bemildred]

7. Sounds right.

China has major "issues" and so does the USA, things will most
likely get "interesting" as we go along. I think it is no accident
that this little spat between Japan and China has kicked up now,
and I expect we will see a lot more of the same, and I expect the
smaller players will do what they can to keep from getting trampled
by the elephants stomping around.

[dArKeR]

9. A French friend told me Chinese #1 tourist destination is Europe and

within Europe the country is France. It seems the Chinese don't have much interest vacationing in America.

[Name removed]

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