Rubber is Critical and Vulnerable (Peak Oil)

[chlamor]

Rubber is Critical, and Vulnerable

by Dan Crawford

World oil production is running flat out, leaving very little room for any errors. If a disruption were to occur a shortage would very likely follow. Probability theory states that the longer we go without a problem, the more likely it becomes. When a shortage does occur conservation measures will be needed.

The single largest consumer of conventional oil in the 30 rich nations of the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development) is the transportation sector. In 1973, this sector accounted for 42% of oil consumed, growing to a whopping 58% of consumption by 2004. Any attempts to conserve oil in a supply crisis will need to target this sector first. Historical records back up this point, as seen by the rationing measures taken during both World Wars and the 1970s energy crisis.

There are other types of supply disruptions that would have the same effect. One that is rarely mentioned is what would happen if there were to be a disruption in rubber supplies. Not only does rubber give vehicles their tires, it is also a key component in all essential vehicle systems. Rubber is used in the hoses, engine mounts, bushings and gaskets. While it is encouraging to note that rubber is one of the only materials used throughout the automotive industry that can be supplied from a renewable resource, it turns out there are some very significant problems to notice here.

The world's rubber needs are met through both natural and synthetic sources, each supplying nearly equal amounts. Synthetic rubber requires petrochemicals as a feedstock for its manufacture, using roughly 3.5 times more oil than what is required for a rubber tree plantation. This dependence on oil has led to a dramatic price increase in synthetic rubber over the last few years. Not surprisingly, this has fuelled an increased demand for natural rubber.


http://www.energybulletin.net/5408.html

[whistle]

1. The first energy crisis hit us in October 1973....

<snip>
1973 oil crisis

At the height of the crisis in the United States, drivers of vehicles with odd numbered license plates were allowed to purchase gasoline only on odd-numbered days of the month, while drivers with even-numbers were limited to even-numbered days.The world oil shock of 1973 began in earnest on October 17, 1973, when Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in the midst of the Yom Kippur War, announced that they would no longer ship petroleum to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Egypt—that is, to the United States and its allies in Western Europe. At around the same time, OPEC-member states agreed to use their leverage over the world price-setting mechanism for oil to quadruple world oil prices. The complete dependence of the industrialized world on oil, much of which resided beneath the surface of Middle Eastern countries, became painfully clear to the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan, marking a watershed requiring Western policymakers to respond to international economic constraints that were qualitatively different from those faced by their predecessors.1

<link> http://www.answers.com/topic/1973-oil-crisis

The Arab oil producer's still have the U.S. at their mercy.

[MADem]

2. I remember those days well

Ron Popeil, of pocket fisherman (and that oven he hawks, plus a bunch of other shit) made a BUNDLE selling a giant plastic hypodermic needle, so you could take your odd car to the gas station, and transfer your gas to your even car. Problem was, people used them to steal gas (way easier than using a hunk of hose and swallowing a bit of the fluid, often as not). That led to a European staple, the LOCKING GAS CAP!

The girdle (and other undergarment) industry took a huge hit during WW2, when rubber was scarce back then, too.

Some guy has invented a new tire (I think it is solid, not air filled) that never wears out--perhaps now is the time for him to enter the market...I think he is being held up by bullshit impediments placed in his way by the greedy tire manufacturers!