One of the many striking moments in Gunner Palace, the new documentary about American troops in Iraq, involved a scene showing military trainers trying in vain to whip the fledgling Iraqi security forces into shape. The camera panned across row upon row of sweaty, overweight, mostly middle-aged Iraqis struggling to do push-ups, master a few clumsy wrestling moves, and mostly keep from vomiting in the heat. Nearby, the trainers sat slumped in their chairs, faces buried in their hands, massaging their temples and visibly dejected. To be sure, this was only one scene and without a doubt there are many brave Iraqis out there risking their lives each day, trying to keep law and order in what's essentially a war zone. Still, the movie highlighted what has been a stiff challenge to date: getting Iraqis trained, equipped, and actually willing to fight, so that they can defend their country once the U.S. leaves. Thus far the Iraqis have fared poorly.
Last week, however, news reports began to sound a more encouraging note. A top Marine general told reporters that fatalities caused by the insurgency were steadily declining. John Burns of the New York Times recently braved the notoriously dangerous Haifa Street in Baghdad and found "signs that the tide may be shifting," and noted, encouragingly, that two Iraqi battalions were patrolling the area—the first time any homegrown brigade had secured a combat zone. These are no longer the sweaty, overweight Iraqis of Gunner Palace. "Now, they're ready to fight," said Maj. Gen. David Petraeus, the American commander in charge of training, to a group of reporters in Baghdad.
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In order to properly gauge America's progress in Iraq, the public—and, more to the point, policymakers—need cold, hard statistics. And yet even the most basic of numbers remain up for dispute. In early February, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told the Senate that the U.S. had trained 48 Iraqi battalions, or about 40,000 troops. Less than three hours later, though, the vice chairman told reporters that 74 battalions were ready to go—a difference of about 20,000 Iraqis. And it's not just reporters. Sen. Mark Dayton (D-MN) recently complained to his colleagues about the lack of hard information on both Iraqi troops and the Sunni insurgency: "It's impossible to get reliable answers from the military and from the administration."
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Even if the number of troops could be established, however, there's still the question of whether the Iraqi security forces are ready to secure the country. It's not enough simply to count up how many troops and Iraqi police have been trained. As the weeks go by, the insurgency continues to swell—in the past year, the number of Sunnis who approve of attacks on American troops has risen from 33 to 52 percent—the crime rate explodes, local militias cause havoc in the countryside, and the need for more troops increases. Worse, according to the Pentagon's own estimates, that need is increasing far faster than the U.S. can train new troops. Official statistics currently claim that 145,000 Iraqi Security Forces are "trained and equipped." Yet the estimated number of troops required has ballooned from roughly 170,000 a year ago to over 270,000 today.
MoJo
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