Region in fear of Nepal's 'perfect storm'

[muriel_volestrangler]

Nepalis are trapped between military-backed absolutist monarchal rule and a Maoist-inspired insurgency, and unrest is intensifying
...
In a report this month Human Rights Watch said the Nepalese army was "one of the world's worst perpetrators of enforced disappearances". Its spokesman said: "Given the scale of the documented disappearances, the heightened role of the army after the king's seizure of power is frightening."

The brutal Maoist insurgency, the pretext for Gyanendra's takeover, shows no sign of abating, meanwhile. The rebel leader, known as Prachanda, has demanded a general strike on April 2.

The rebellion feeds on the chronic poverty of most of Nepal's 24 million people. Yet despite their liberationist ideology, the rebels have killed more civilians than soldiers in nine years of civil war that has cost 11,000 lives.
...
Analysts suggest that the worsening instability could draw in neighbouring China. And an offer from Pakistan of arms in place of those withheld by India illustrates the potential for stoking regional tension.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldbriefing/story/0,15205,1443665,00.html

Not a pretty situation. What should the rest of us do? Not trading arms is a good start ('well done' to India, 'piss off' to Pakistan). How long befire we should try some thing more against the king, like sanctions (can we manufacture some sanctions that hurt him but not the people?)?

[American in Asia]

1. Well, as a long-term Nepal-watcher...

My opinion is that ANY judgement is premature and that discussions of economic sanctions are outright irresponsible.

First of all - human rights abuses were also widespread under democratic governments - in fact, many credit the police brutality of the infamous Operation Romeo in the late 1990s for generating widespread support for the Maoists. This is not a new problem.

Secondly - it is not clear what the trend will be, and I think it's premature to link democracy/King with a trend on human rights abuses. There are arguments to support both views. Many say that lack of press freedoms and the state of emergency will give opportunity for greater abuses. Many others point to recent disciplinary action against abusers, and increased training and other measures (e.g., cards distributed to units with human rights' rules) as a positive sign that the King is serious about promised improvements in human rights, if for no other reason than that he knows his rule may well depend on it.

Third, - sanctions would hurt the poor. Desperately. Much of Nepal does not grow enough food to supply more than 6-9 months' needs. Medicines and other supplies are all imported from India. Sanctions would be devastating in their impact. This is a country where the average income is around $250/year. Only truly irresponsible Nepalese/Indians, etc. (IMHO) are proposing this (mostly some of the more extreme politicians now in India, and they are being roundly criticized for such statements inside Nepal).

And, finally, I think it would be nice to know more about what the Nepali people want - and what I hear is peace now - by whatever means - and a return to democracy as quickly as possible, but not at the expense of more years of a new government every 6 months, constant political protests and rampant corruption. It is quite revealing that other than a few political leaders the Nepali people are not protesting - and they did in 1990 - big time. Do we have the right to impose our priorities on them against their will? What is the solution we would impose? If elections cannot be held (ones the King has demanded but the politicians have refused to compete for), how does one "restore democracy"? Appoint another politician as PM? But the last few times that has happened, all the others have claimed whomever it was was "illegitimate", and spent months protesting and bickering, doing little about poverty or the conflict, because frankly, the perception is that it's just not a priority for the Kathmandu elite in politics.

This situation is too new, and we need to give it a little more time to be able to better judge (a) public opinion; (b) the King's motives/actions; (c) whether the promised improvement in human rights and restoring of civil liberties happens within the few weeks promised.

Nepal is an amazing country that has touched many people who are concerned, which is wonderful. But, truly this is a very complicated situation with little in the way of easy answers ...

2. Nepalese Parliamentary Parties Back Maoist Demand

"The People's War in Nepal is surging from one success to another. Since "King" Gyanendra's Feb. 1 decree of emergency rule, any claim to being the sovereign of the Nepalese people has been shown for the fantasy it is. The Maoists immediately launched a non-violence "siege" of Katmandu, called a bandh, that stopped all traffic throughout most of the country without even blockading the roads. Western "human rights" groups made outrageous accusations of Maoists "threatening" to cut off people's hands, while failing to report that no such atrocities occured. Amnesty International sent a high-profile delegation to meet with the king and victims of the army's rapes and abuse, but couldn't bring themselves to meet with the rebels, or to present their story. Reports in the capitalist and communist press agree that the Maoists have galvanized the lower classes, particularly the desperately poor peasants, into a cohesive fighting force that cannot be defeated by the monarchy.

The wildcard in Nepal's civil war has been the marginalized parliamentary parties centered in the capital city. Up until today, they have respected the legitimacy of the monarchy and refused to recognize facts on the ground, including the censorship of their press, and the killing and jailing of their leaders by the isolated monarchy. U.S. ambassador James Moriarty told the BBC that failure to bring the "mainstream" parties back into alliance with the monarchy could result in victory for the Maoist rebels. He meant that this would be a bad thing, unlike having a king.

The Congress Party, UML and the other main "legal" parties declared in a March 16 New Delhi meeting that "This will be our last fight with the king. There will be no more compromise." They have accepted the Community Party of Nepal's main demands for an end to the monarchy, the establishment of a republic and the calling of Nepal's first constituent assembly. The days of the monarchy grow shorter by the minute. How these parties respond to the fight for communism remains to be seen, but if democratic respectability is their measure -- then the way points towards at least neutrality towards the People's War.

Meanwhile, the non-Maoist American and Western European left continue to ignore the People's War in Nepal and the atrocities the monarchy, with their backers in the US/UK and India, inflicts on the population. Considering how much political capital social democrats, liberals and anti-authoritarians have invested in the "death of communism," it's hardly surprising. Another world is possible, they say, while ignoring it's birth in the mountains of Asia.

Li Onesto, a journalist with the Chicago-based Revolutionary Worker, trekked into the heights of the Himalayas to meet with the rebels in their base areas, mass organizations and scored a unique interview with the CPN's leader Prachanda. Her recent book Dispatches From the People's War in Nepal is a necessary read on the early growth of the communist movement. Her portraits of common people in struggle and their inspiring belief that they can remake the world against centuries of oppression is a tonic to the lowered expectations and defeatism afflicting much of the post-everything left.

For those interested in how the liberal party line is being articulated, and what much of the anti-radical left will undoubtedly start parroting once they can no longer ignore the insurgency, check out this cut-and-paste job from Human Rights Watch. It deploys the standard line that the people are caught between the King and the Maoists. <http://hrw.org/english/docs/2005/03/16/nepal10328_txt.htm> They've said the exact same thing about every insurgency since the 1980s when this meme was deployed with stunning effectiveness against the guerillas of the Communist Party of Peru/Shining Path. They just switch the party names and local color and call it an analysis. At least now they openly admit that their goal is not simply "democracy," but a "strong civil society and a vibrant middle class." Tell that to the peasants who've had enough of those lies."

http://burning.typepad.com/

Maoist Deal with Nepal's Political Parties May Doom Monarchy
http://www.ipsnews.net/africa/interna.asp?idnews=27888

Nepal curbs reporting on insurgency

PRESS TRUST OF INDIA

Posted online: Thursday, March 03, 2005 at 0110 hours IST

KATHMANDU, MARCH 2: Nepal’s government on Wednesday instructed media houses not to publish news regarding Maoist insurgency without quoting sources from security agencies.

‘‘Unless any publication or broadcasting house acquires information (from) sources of security bodies, publishing...news that directly or indirectly instigate or support terrorist and destructive activities and terrorism will be punished,’’ said a Ministry of Information and Communication notice. Information Minister Tanka Dhakal defended the move, saying it was not censorship.

Meanwhile, US ambassador to Nepal James Moriarty was prevented from meeting Nepal Congress President and ex-prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala at his house in Maharajgunja today, the US embassy said.

http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=65718

Nepal army flushing out rebels:
: KATMANDU, Nepal, March 2 : Army forces are conducting a massive search operation in western Nepal to track down rebels who escaped following a major battle with government troops.

Army officials in the western town of Nepalgunj said troops were searching the area where clashes occurred Monday, in which 70 rebels and four members of the security forces died, the BBC reported.Locals said the clashes occurred Monday evening when Maoists ambushed security forces as they were removing a road blockade on a highway.They in turn were attacked by the army from both directions, resulting in heavy casualties.

Bloodshed in Nepal has continued, despite King Gyanendra's takeover of direct power a month ago, which he said would help contain violence.

At the same time, the army has been enforcing strict new rules on media censorship.The government has ordered journalists to publish only information on the insurgency provided by the security forces or face punishment.

http://news.newkerala.com/world-news/?action=fullnews&id=79522

Last two articles posted to show the nature of the propaganda campaign in Nepal.

[American in Asia]

3. I truly cannot believe you posted

the first story... I will debate you on the other two, but not the first, that came from a "revolutionary" website. As someone who has seen at first hand the results of their "coercion", and had relatives of friends of mine brutally hacked apart by the Maoists (in one case a village schoolteacher who tried to prevent his students from being forcibly removed), I truly cannot find words to even begin to rebut this crap.

I will note that the "bandhs" have been called repeatedly, at the cost of great human suffering (people dying because they can't get to medical posts, daily wage laborers already having difficulty feeding their families unable to work, etc.) - not for the rich, who couldn't care less, but for the poor. Interestingly, in Kathmandu the bandh after Feb. 1 fell totally flat, and for the first time in YEARS people felt safe enough on a bandh to go about their normal business -traffic was normal, shops were open, people basically blew it off. Yes, it was "successful" in rural areas if you define success as blowing up and burning ambulances who traveled, and terrorizing the population into obedience. I'm not a fan of everything the government or the monarch do -- but the Maoists are evil, cruel, almost inhuman terrorists - please do not make the mistake of seeing them as some "robin hood" types. They beat people. They take the last food from poor peoples' houses at gun point. They DO hack off arms (and legs, and heads). They DO recruit child soldiers and use human shields. They DO terrorize a village by taking a respected elder and crushing his legs with logs, pull out his fingernails, and hack him to pieces, so that the rest of the village will comply.

I find it VERY disturbing that you would quote their propaganda from their website without doing more homework about what kind of organization this is.

As to the censorship - I agree - I think I said that - that this is not good - I simply said that it is premature to tell if the civil liberties will be restored within the matter of 3-4 weeks as the King and government had said they would do.

Peace...

[American in Asia]

4. Incidentally....

I do know of ONE, and only ONE Nepali politician in India who has suggested joining hands with the Maoists. That woman is the daughter of one of the current political leaders, widely believed to be MASSIVELY corrupt, who fled Nepal in some bizarre story that most of the local people (non-elite - Im' talking about shopkeepers, busdrivers, vegetable sellers) find hysterically funny. The perception is, since no one else found any reason to "flee" that she was worried about being arrested for corruption.

Her suggestion that the parties join hands with the Maoists was rapidly, and roundly, condemned by every political party. This is a propaganda site for the Maoists. You really must be careful in reading and citing their nonsense.

5. I, too, "watch" and even live in Nepal

I know people who've been brutally beaten -- some by the army/police, some by the Maoists. I know that most of my "normal" Nepali friends and acquaintances support the King's royal coup. They want peace. Peace. Peace. Then, maybe democracy. Few actually want to eradicate the monarchy completely.

I'm not sure what I think is right for my adopted country. On the one hand, I abhor the tiny chunks that are being whittled away from America's freedoms and protections. So, shouldn't I also abhor this same process in Nepal? Maybe I "should," but I don't. I feel too much "with" the people and can understand the difference between their willingness to forgo fundamental freedoms for a bit of stability and relative peace and the American erosion of freedoms that are all that stands between democracy and facism.

I don't know what more I want to say except that it's so very easy to despise the King's move when sitting comfortably far away. Or to be highly educated and privileged and sitting in Kathmandu. We must walk a bit in the flip flops of a porter or try taking a school leaving exam while bombs go off before we can understand what the Nepali people really want.

One more thing -- remember that Nepal sits between the two most populace nations in the world, each of whom is coming into a new phase of growth and regional dominance. When India withholds arms it opens the door for China. This is a VERY complex political scenario, about which American in Asia is much more suited to comment. I'm just his/her friend...