STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 10 November

[ozymandius]

Wednesday November 10, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 334 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 23 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1084
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 9, 2004

Dow... 10,386.37 -4.94 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq... 2,043.33 +4.08 (+0.20%)
S&P 500... 1,164.08 -0.81 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.22% +0.00 (+0.07%)
Gold future... 436.20 +2.80 (+0.64%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 83.84 Change -0.45 (-0.53%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1100082814-9e32d306-21727

ROUNDUP China economic data shows economy slowing, but still in high gear

excerpt:

The industrial output data marks the slowest level of growth in three months, dragged lower by falling car production. Car output fell 14.2 pct year-on-year to 144,000 units in October as investors waited on car purchases amid falling prices and tough lending requirements foisted on commercial lenders earlier this year. Industrial output grew at 16.7 pct in the same period last year, and 17.0 pct in the first nine months of this year, the NBS said

Qi Jingmei, a researcher with the Macroeconomic Forecasting Department under the State Council Development Research Center said that, barring falling auto output, production remains at a high level

"The growth in recent months might be slower than earlier this year on a month-on-month basis, but if you compare it with the same month last year, it's still very fast," she said. The latest numbers are unlikely to dampen speculation about an imminent revaluation of the Chinese currency, currently pegged to the US dollar at around 8.27 yuan. Although economists are forecasting further hikes in interest rates in the coming months, Citigroup economist Huang Yiping told clients in a note earlier this week that raising borrowing costs to offset an undervalued currency could have a punitive effect on China's leveraged industries in the interior, leaving a revaluation as the only sensible option

"While export growth is slowing, it still outpaces export gains elsewhere in emerging Asia. Labor shortages in coastal firms, largely dedicated to exports, also hint at overheating," he said. "Accordingly, currency appreciation still appears to be a question of timing." In October alone exports rose 28.5 pct over a year ago to 52.53 bln usd while imports were up 29.3 pct to 45.43 bln usd. [e-mail] amj/dw/cas For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.com

...more at link...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100230/content.asp?menu=commodities&dia=10112004

ETALS MARKET COMMENTARY

The precious metals markets continued to rally last week, largely mirroring the very significant declines in the USD. The financial markets are, and have been, completely ignoring all cyclical considerations of the US economy and are fixated, perhaps rightfully so, on the structural defects, notably the “twin deficits”. With George Bush reelected, the market believes that the USD will head considerable lower as it fell by 35-40% during the first term of his presidency. With the government’s policy of benign neglect as to the value of the USD, the market is now convinced in a continuing devaluation of the currency. This is most clearly seen in the almost historic record speculative positions in long gold, long Euro, and long Swiss Franc on the exchange. And, clearly, as the USD fares, the precious metals either benefit or suffer.

Surprisingly, the financial markets seem to be centered on the longer term implications of current trends rather than the daily news events and governmental reports. Last Friday was a superb example of this new phenomenon, as the job report was incredibly favorable for the USD. The Euro immediately fell over 1 cent, then rallied about 2 cents, to close into new record highs. It was clear that traders were taking every opportunity to short the USD that was presented. As the Euro made record highs, the gold market also rallied, carrying prices to 16 year highs. Even with the certainty of higher US interest rates coming promptly, the USD was rapidly and viciously sold, even in the face of fabulously bullish news. Gold finished the week up $4.90.

<snip>

There is also the danger that the market may, at some point, become focused on more timely issues rather than the long-term. With the certainty of US interest rates rising, it is just possible that the USD may find some support, and any rally in the Dollar would naturally curtail, or postpone, the bull trend in gold. Although truth be told, this seems unlikely at this point in time, unless the Fed takes a much more aggressive stance in raising rates than is presently considered in the market. As long the Fed stays “behind the curve”, which is to say that US interest rates stay below the rate of inflation (thus creating a negative “real interest rate”), the Dollar will suffer and gold will shine.

...more...

Today's Reports:

Nov 10 8:30 AM
Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
report -
briefing.com NA
market NA
last report 0.2%
revised -

Nov 10 8:30 AM
Import Prices ex-oil Oct
report -
briefing.com NA
market NA
last report 0.1%
revised -

Nov 10 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 11/06
report -
briefing.com 340K
market 340K
last report 332K
revised -

Nov 10 8:30 AM
Trade Balance Sep
report -
briefing.com -$53.5B
market -$54.0B
last report -$54.0B
revised -

Nov 10 2:00 PM
Treasury Budget Oct
report -
briefing.com -$58.0B
market -$58.0B
last report -$69.5B
revised -

Nov 10 2:15 PM
FOMC Meeting

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[trogdor]

2. Not the best toon.

I think I know what it means, but I had to really look at it first.

[JNelson6563]

10. haha I thought it was brilliant!

Very clever.

[UpInArms]

3. Reports are coming in

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. SEPT. TRADE GAP WITH EUROLAND FALLS 29%

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. SEPT. NON-OIL IMPORTS RECORD $109 BLN

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. SEPT. IMPORTED OIL DECLINES TO 10.1 MLN BARREL/DAY

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. SEPT. IMPORTED OIL PRICE RECORD $37.62/BARREL

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. SEPT. TRADE GAP WITH CHINA RECORD $15.5 BLN

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. AUG. TRADE GAP REVISED LOWER TO $53.5 BLN

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. SEPT. EXPORTS UP 0.8% TO $97.5 BLN

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. SEPT. IMPORTS DOWN 0.8% TO $149 BLN

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. SEPT. TRADE GAP NARROWS 3.7% TO $51.6 BLN

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 2,000 TO 333,000

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. 4-WK AVG JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 5,500 TO 336,000

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. 4-WK AVG JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JULY

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. OCT. IMPORT PRICES UP 1.5% VS FORECAST 1.3%

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. OCT. OIL IMPORT PRICES UP 11.7%

8:30am 11/10/04 U.S. OCT. OIL IMPORT PRICE RISE LARGEST SINCE JAN 2003

[UpInArms]

4. U.S. Oct. import prices up 1.5%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38301.3545956944-826329181&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Higher oil prices caused the prices of imported goods to rise 1.5 percent in October, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Prices of imported oil spiked 11.7 percent on the month, the largest monthly increase since just before the U.S. ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein from power. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had been expecting an overall rise of 1.3 percent in October. Non-oil imports fell 0.2 percent in October, the first decline in a year. Overall export prices rose 0.7 percent.

[UpInArms]

5. U.S. Sept. trade gap narrows 3.7% to $51.6 billion

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38301.3542253241-826328958&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. trade deficit shrank by 3.7 percent to $51.6 billion in September, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Imports fell 0.8 percent to $149 billion while exports increased 0.8 percent to a record $97.5 billion. Despite higher prices, the nation's bill for imported crude oil fell to $11.4 billion because imports were disrupted for a time by a powerful hurricane. The trade deficit with euroland declined 29 percent to $5.7 billion. The trade gap with China widened to a record $15.5 billion behind record imports of $18.4 billion. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch were expecting, on average, a trade gap of $53.8 billion.

[UpInArms]

7. U.S. trade gap shrinks to $51.6 billion (more details)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBC19F4D6%2DDE9B%2D49F0%2DA4B6%2DB4B8FB3F099C%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - A strong euro and a strong hurricane helped cut the U.S. trade deficit by 3.7 percent to $51.6 billion in September.

Imports fell 0.8 percent to $149 billion while exports increased 0.8 percent to a record $97.5 billion, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday.

Despite higher prices, the nation's bill for imported crude oil fell to $11.4 billion because imports were disrupted for a time by a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

The trade deficit with the European Union declined 20 percent to $7.7 billion, while the gap with euro countries plunged 29 percent to $5.7 billion. The value of the euro has strengthened against the dollar, reducing the relative competitiveness of European goods.

Meanwhile, the trade gap with China widened to a record $15.5 billion behind record imports of $18.4 billion.

Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch were expecting, on average, a trade gap of $53.8 billion.

<snip>

The decrease in imports largely reflected a decline in industrial materials, including fuel oil, organic chemicals and crude oil. Imports of nonpetroleum goods rose to a record $109 billion.

...more (and the last 2 paragraphs are doozies)...

[UpInArms]

6. U.S. 4-wk avg jobless claims lowest level since July

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38301.3544291319-826329172&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The number of people filing for state unemployment insurance for the first time rose 2,000 to 333,000 last week, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The level of claims was slightly lower than expected. Economists were expecting about 337,000 claims, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. The four-week moving average of new claims fell by 5,500 to 336,000 in the week ending Nov. 6. This is the lowest level since the week ended July 3. Economists put more weight on the four-week average as a guide to the strength of the labor market because it smoothes out one-time distortions, including hurricanes.

How did Wednesday get to be MaeveDay?

[UpInArms]

8. Lucent gets $861 million tax refund (doesn't this make you proud?)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38301.358886794-826329737&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Lucent Technologies (LU) said Wednesday it will get a tax refund of about $861 million, plus $45 million in interest, which will be recorded in its fourth-quarter results ended Sept. 30. A congressional committee approved Lucent's agreement with the IRS related to the carry-back of Lucent's fiscal year 2001 federal net operating loss to 1996, the company said. Lucent shares closed up 2 cents to $3.67 Tuesday.

'cause I just have to add what kind of people are/have been running Lucent:

http://www.mcall.com/business/local/all-lucentbriberynov10,0,3147302.story?coll=all-businesslocal-hed

Former Lucent chief executives, others could face SEC charges
Allegations revolve around an alleged plot to bribe officials in Saudi Arabia.

TRENTON, N.J. | Federal regulators are considering civil charges against two former executives of Lucent Technologies Inc. and a third ex-employee of the telecommunications gearmaker over an alleged bribery scheme involving Saudi Arabian officials.

Lucent's former chairman and chief executive, Richard McGinn, and the former head of Lucent's Saudi Arabian operations, John Heindel, received notices of possible action by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The case involves allegations that McGinn, Heindel and a third person violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act through bribery and by ''aiding and abetting the company's alleged violations'' of the law's requirements to keep accurate books and maintain proper internal accounting controls.

Lucent, of Murray Hill, N.J., disclosed the development in a filing with the SEC late Monday.

''We identified these individuals due to the significance of their positions,'' said Lucent spokesman Bill Price.

A third former employee who was not named in the SEC filing also received what is called a Wells notice, which indicates the SEC staff is considering recommending civil charges against a person or company. The notice offers them an opportunity to respond beforehand.

<snip>

Lucent has separately been accused in a lawsuit of bribing Saudi Arabia's former telecommunications minister with cash and gifts worth $15 million to $21 million, from 1995 through 2002, as a way to gain business from the Saudi Telecommunications Co., the country's monopoly wireless provider.

...more...

[54anickel]

16. It's the New American way! That would make most Repukes proud!!! n/t

[UpInArms]

9. Euro probes record territory, hits $1.30

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid=%7B409DF5AF%2D23AA%2D49D4%2D8F98%2D2893F3B8A184%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar's positive reaction to U.S. trade data was viewed as a buying opportunity for the greenback's rivals. The euro touched $1.30, its best level ever against the U.S. dollar. The euro was more recently at at $1.2956, up 0.5 percent from Tuesday.

[UpInArms]

14. Euro pulls back to $1.2945

9:07am 11/10/04 EURO BOUNCES BACK FROM $1.30, TRADING AT $1.2945

[JNelson6563]

11. How will Communist China react to Fed?

Will they keep feeding the $ incinerator that is the US or will they begin to heed the siren song of others?

Wait and see...

Will check back later.

Julie

[ozymandius]

12. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

WEEKLY SUMMARY

If you recall, in the weekly report for the week ending 10-22-04 (see archives), we listed 3 conditions which, if they were met, it would mean that there was a 72% probability---according to our system--that NASDAQ would rally above 2020, and a 67% probability that the SP would rally above 1145. The conditions were met in the following days, and the indices did rally above the target levels. All in all, since 10-25-04, the major indices have gained between 7% to 8%, with half of the gains taking place before the election, and the other half of the gains taking place after the election. At the moment, almost every investor is confronted with the same question; given that the indices have rallied for 10 consecutive days, is a pullback imminent, or is it going to come from higher levels?

Statistically speaking, after a rally with a magnitude of 7%- 8% and 10 consecutive days of rising prices, the probability of a pullback in excess of 3.5% is nearly 60%, based on 25 years of market data. However, according to the same data, there is roughly a 30% probability that the indices will rally another 3% to 5% before there is a pullback in excess of 3.5%. The SP has traditionally provided the best clues with regard to what to expect next. This is what you have to look for:

If over the next 3-4 trading days the SP stays within a 15-20 point range without trading below support, and by the fourth or fifth day it closes at least 1.5% above today's close, then the odds favoring another 3%-5% advance will be better than even. For example, if over the next 4 trading days the daily highs and lows for the SP are confined between 1180 and 1165, and on the fifth day it closes at 1185, the odds favoring a further rally to 1210-1220 will be better than even. Consequently, if the SP stays above support for the next 3-4 trading days while it keeps making higher highs on an intra-day basis, you may want to add to your long positions using the 1160 support level as your stop.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

13. Dollar Falling (look out below!)

Last trade 83.71 Change -0.58 (-0.69%)

Settle 84.29 Settle Time 23:35

Open 84.24 Previous Close 84.29

High 84.39 Low 83.71

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-10 08:38:15 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

17. Bounced right on back to 84.00 Eh, what was that all about. I thought

they'd be fairly happy with some of those reports. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

19. a "little help from our friends"?

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/

ADZ4 Australian Dollar Dec (CME) 0.75790 -0.00040 2060 65665 09:14 all months
ADT4 Australian Dollar Dec (CME) 0.75820 -0.00010 3279 65665 09:21 all months
ECZ4 EuroFX Dec (CME) 1.29390 +0.00420 11251 182147 09:19 all months
ECT4 EuroFX Dec (CME) 1.29430 +0.00460 62389 182147 09:21 all months
JYZ4 Japanese Yen Dec (CME) 0.009412 -0.000063 3888 173467 09:19 all months
JYT4 Japanese Yen Dec (CME) 0.009411 -0.000065 12597 173467 09:21 all months
BPZ4 British Pound Dec (CME) 1.8475 -0.0041 2224 88384 09:18 all months
BPT4 British Pound Dec (CME) 1.8482 -0.0034 6900 88384 09:21 all months
CDZ4 Canadian Dollar Dec (CME) 0.83320 -0.00020 5542 103012 09:18 all months
CDT4 Canadian Dollar Dec (CME) 0.83420 +0.00080 10051 103012 09:21 all months
SFZ4 Swiss Franc Dec (CME) 0.85130 +0.00540 3979 76492 09:21 all months
SFT4 Swiss Franc Dec (CME) 0.85120 +0.00530 8703 76492 09:21 all months
RUP5 Russian Ruble Sep (CME) 0.034480 +0.000080 27 2125 08:28 all months
BRT4 Brazilian Real Dec (CME) 0.35110 0.00000 389 set 22:02 all months
RAZ4 South African Rand Dec (CME) 0.160750 0.000000 22 3324 set 10:36 all months
RAT4 South African Rand Dec (CME) 0.160600 -0.000150 6 3324 08:55 all months
DMR4 Deutsche Mark Sep (CME) 313.75 0.00 set 16:58 all months
EUZ4 Large Euro/U.S. Dollar Dec (NYBOT) 1.2897 0.0000 238 635 07:54 all months
MQX4 Mexican Peso Nov (CME) 11.4745 0.0000 15:01 all months
AUZ4 Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar Dec (NYBOT) 0.7578 0.0000 17 376 07:55 all months

[UpInArms]

29. dollar update

10:18am 11/10/04 DOLLAR GAIN AGAINST YEN SETTING FX MARKET TONE: ANALYST

10:18am 11/10/04 DOLLAR UP 1.3% AGAINST YEN, AT 107.02 YEN

10:18am 11/10/04 EURO TURNS NEGATIVE ON THE DAY AGAINST THE DOLLAR

10:19am 11/10/04 EURO DOWN 0.1% AT $1.2891 AFTER RECORD HIGH $1.30

[UpInArms]

39. dollar doing the happy dance!

Last trade 84.58 Change +0.29 (+0.34%)

Settle 84.29 Settle Time 23:35

Open 84.24 Previous Close 84.29

High 84.61 Low 83.70

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-10 10:19:24 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

42. A tidbit from yesterday's news

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6763143

Fed to give dollar scant relief as deficits deepen

snip>

"A highly anticipated interest rate increase tomorrow ... is not likely to have any impact on the dollar's valuation," said Alex Beuzelin, foreign exchange market analyst with Ruesch International.

Even if in the Fed's accompanying statement the U.S. central bank were to hint it intends to raise rates again at its December policy meeting, "I don't think that will alleviate the selling pressure that's amassed against the U.S. dollar ... because it would do nothing to diminish concerns about the loaded current account deficit and federal government budget deficit," Beuzelin said.

snip>

Yet even a narrower than expected trade deficit would do little to improve the dollar's tone, traders said.

"I don't see anything saving the dollar," said Bill Hoerter, trading desk manager with Alaron FX in Chicago.

A narrower than expected trade gap could lead to fairly rapid selling of euros for dollars in an initial knee-jerk reaction, but then "cheaper euros will be seen as an opportunity to buy (euros)," Hoerter said.

more...

[UpInArms]

18. Dollar popping back (someone's "helping")

Last trade 83.96 Change -0.33 (-0.39%)

Settle 84.29 Settle Time 23:35

Open 84.24 Previous Close 84.29

High 84.39 Low 83.71

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-10 08:59:30 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

40. All the way back up to 84.50 now. Someone's looking to get back to

the non-directional 84.75 channel. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

15. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:11AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures market holding fairly steady this morning in positive territory, which is setting the stage for a modestly higher open for the cash market... Pre-market trading shows Cisco (19.02 -0.73) under pressure after disappointing the street with in line results last night... Banc of America also lowered its price target on the stock citing lower gross margins (below 68% for the first time in two years) and modest Q2 (Jan) guidance (CSCO sees revenues of approx $6.03-6.15 bln vs consensus of $6.21 bln)

8:48AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0.

8:34AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures market fairly non-responsive to the batch of economic data at 08:30 ET that included the Trade Deficit for Sept. ($51.6 bln versus prior of $53.5 bln) and initial claims, which rose 2K to 333K (consensus 340K).... expectations for a positive start for the cash market remain intact

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. A positive tone in pre-market action as crude oil closes in on the $47/bbl level and overseas markets trend higher (FTSE is roughly 11 points away from highs not seen in 2 years)... Trading is expected to be light through the first half of today's session as markets await the Fed's policy announcement this afternoon... It is widely expected that the FOMC will raise the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 2% at 14:15 ET; fed funds futures market also currently leaning in favor of another 25 basis points hike in December

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and is challenging resistance marked by June's high crossing at 1532.50. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 1532.50 would open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 1563 later this year. Closes below the 10- day moving average crossing at 1511 would signal that a double top with June's high has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 3.50 pts. at 1530 as of 5:53 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates above the previous contract high crossing at 1160.10. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and is rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of monthly fib resistance crossing at 1170.60 is the next upside target. Closes below broken resistance crossing at 1146.50 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was up 3.30 pts. at 1167.50 as of 5:54 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

(edited for html)

[ozymandius]

20. Fed opens meeting, poised to raise interest rates

WASHINGTON (AFP) - US Federal Reserve (news - web sites) policymakers opened a meeting, nearly certain to raise key interest rates amid signs of a resurgent American jobs market.

Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (news - web sites) (FOMC) started the meeting as scheduled at about 9:00 am (1400 GMT), a spokesman said.

They are expected to release a statement explaining the decision at about 2:15 pm (1915 GMT).

Economists and traders agreed that the policymakers will announce a quarter-point rise in the federal funds target rate -- to 2.0 percent from 1.75 percent.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=2&u=/afp/20041110/bs_afp/us_economy_rates&sid=96001027

[UpInArms]

22. here's why 2% is important

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B09E3A3D6%2DC654%2D4B9F%2D858F%2D53C1519636A4%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Higher U.S. interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to foreign investors. U.S. interest rates remain below those offered in many other industrialized parts of the world, including the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. The currencies of these countries have pounded the dollar this year. At 2 percent, U.S. interest rates will match those in the eurozone.

The United States must continue to draw a steady flow of foreign capital to finance its trade gap or risk deeper structural problems for its economy and the dollar.

The statement from the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to repeat that rate increases can proceed at a "measured" pace, said Masaki Fukui, vice president of forex division at Mizuho Corporate Bank in Tokyo.

After hitting a record low against the euro and a seven-month low against the yen on Monday, the dollar had stabilized following remarks from a host of European officials expressing some economic concerns from a quickly appreciating euro.

"It wasn't an aggressive recovery , as the holders of large short dollar positions have not been forced to throw in the towel," said Cornelius Luca, currency analyst with GFT Forex.

"The market has been looking vainly for a trend, regardless of direction, for months now, and the idea of abandoning the budding dollar downtrend doesn't sound quite right," he said. "But oil prices are finally slumping and stocks are climbing, and these two factors suggest a further dollar recovery - at a minimum."

...more at link...

[54anickel]

27. Hahahaha, With everything else that's "wrong" with the US economy, do they

really believe that sh*t? Hmmm, 2% on a fairly stable investment or 2% on a volatile investment (due to the nut in charge with his finger on the trigger and the Bible in his hand).

[UpInArms]

25. Dollar dodging at the Fed

Sure the currency is tumbling, but don't expect the FOMC to do much out of the ordinary today.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/10/commentary/column_hays/hays/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It's pretty clear that another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve today will not be much of a headline maker.

What could get people to sit up and notice is if the Fed suggests it's getting more worried about inflation and maybe even willing to consider moving rates higher at something more aggressive than a slow, measured pace.

This is not expected on Wall Street.

In fact some still think the Fed might signal the opposite, that is ready to pause and NOT hike rates in December because oil prices are still high and because many people wonder if the big jump in jobs in October will prove to be another one-month wonder.

But there is a camp on Wall Street that thinks it's time for the Fed at long last to STOP saying the risk of falling inflation and rising inflation are equal, that it's time for the FOMC to shift to a stance where it finally says that it is now more worried about the risk of a pick-up in inflation in an expanding economy.

The dollar is in the background, on the defensive, with traders wondering how much lower they can push it, and a signal from the Fed that it's going to keep on raising rates despite head winds like high oil prices could give the buck some support. What we should not expect from the Fed today is any kind of overt reference to the dollar's weakness; perhaps not even to the nation's big trade deficit.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. 9:37 EST markets are open

Dow 10,398.90 +12.53 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,038.73 -4.60 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,164.29 +0.21 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.239% +0.021

NYSE Volume 47,839,000
Nasdaq Volume 91,625,000

[UpInArms]

26. 10:08 numbers and blather

Dow 10,393.89 +7.52 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,036.02 -7.31 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,163.53 -0.55 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.235% +0.017

NYSE Volume 198,520,000
Nasdaq Volume 300,676,000

10:00AM: Major indices remain mixed, as a sluggish technology sector continues to weigh heavily on the proceedings... Oil, at $47.37/bbl however, has been one positive development for the bulls as oil futures are at their lowest levels since Sept 22... The Energy Department's weekly inventory announcement is scheduled for 10:30 ET, and energy pundits expect crude inventories in the week ended November 5 to increase by 2 mln barrels... NYSE Adv/Dec 1403/1186, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1074/1269

9:45AM: Market starts the day with slight selling pressure in tech... Cisco Systems (CSCO -3.85%), which accounts for 4.32% of the Nasdaq's total value is weighing down the Composite... While Cisco's Q1 earnings were in line, revenues fell short of analysts expectations and the company issued softer than expected Q2 guidance... Other technology names adding weakness to the S&P are Dell (DELL -0.56%) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -1.02%)... Both were downgraded by UBS this morning to Neutral from Buy.


dollar:

Last trade 84.18 Change -0.11 (-0.13%)

Settle 84.29 Settle Time 23:35

Open 84.24 Previous Close 84.29

High 84.39 Low 83.71

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-10 09:37:24 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

33. 10:33 numbers and blather

Dow 10,391.08 +4.71 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,034.39 -8.94 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,163.22 -0.86 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.240% +0.022

NYSE Volume 313,173,000
Nasdaq Volume 448,289,000

10:30AM: Major indices continue to hug the unchanged mark... This morning's economic reports did not prove especially influential pre-market trading but they still provided color on the labor market and trade deficit... The September Trade Balance unexpectedly narrowed to -$51.6 bln (consensus of -$54 bln) as imports fell 0.8% while exports rose to a record... Weekly jobless claims increased by a modest 2K, to 333K (consensus of 340K) - a level that is still consistent with an expanding labor market as seen in October's non-farm payrolls figure of 337K...

Separately, weekly crude oil inventories were just released, and came in up 1.8 mln (consensus called for an increase in 2 mln barrels)... So far, little reaction from the stock market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1499/1396, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1119/1478

dollar

Last trade 84.29 Change 0.00 (0.00%)

Settle 84.29 Settle Time 23:35

Open 84.24 Previous Close 84.29

High 84.39 Low 83.70

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-10 10:03:23 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[PATRICK]

23. Outsourcing Exodus

My son had jobs "on hold" until after the election. Like Moses parting the Red Sea Bush has taken those jobs to the promised Land- and it is not the US.

IMMEDIATELY after and with clear admission, one went to Israel, another to Italy and another still looking no matter how low my son might outbid and how high he might outperform them. This is not an IT position, but an artistic one, and quality, experience or performance seems no issue- only price and the fad thing to do.

Since this is what is happening to outliers on the computer linked job market, I can imagine what is happening elsewhere. Why would anyone grace this nation by even pursuing a degree vulnerable to overseas competition?

Luckily, my son has an honest US job in his field that opposes outsourcing for outsourcing's sake.

Should I add to Lou Dobb's disgruntled e-mails?

[UpInArms]

24. I am doing a spreadsheet of

layoffs announced since 11/2 and currently the number is 42,098

[ramapo]

28. How about dead people in Iraq?

That'd show a post-11/2 spike also

[UpInArms]

30. I am only one person

and would welcome you to do such a spreadsheet

:hi:

[PATRICK]

37. Bigger numbers

Can't be laid off if the job is never here! Sure the blowback is cascading job loss here, but the people outsourced at this kickoff to Bush II is pretty clearly the victory of insanity and betrayal.

Money pour into places where this no market for the product produced. No income for people to spend on products here. More job loss by people who will be last in line should the trend reverse.

[54anickel]

45. Delta to cut 6000-6900 jobs (Bastards changed the title of the article to

Delta to Issue 75 Million Shares)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/041110/airlines_delta_4.html

snip>

The company, providing more details about its restructuring plan including job cuts, said it will use a provision that allows the stock issuance without shareholder approval.

Atlanta-based Delta said it will use an exception in the New York Stock Exchange's shareholder approval policy to issue the shares, adding any delay in getting approval could "seriously jeopardize" its financial viability.

snip>

Delta also said it plans to cut between 6,000 and 6,900 jobs during the next 18 months, cut pay by 10 percent across the board, and reduce employee benefits. Delta has more than 60,000 employees, according to its Web site.

As part of a new employee incentive program, Delta said 63 million shares would be issued upon the exercise of stock options for about 57,000 employees. The airline has about 125.6 million shares outstanding.

The company will also issue up to 12 million shares to debtholders who agree to defer debt maturing in the near term and to aircraft lessors who participate in Delta's aircraft financing concession program.

more...

[UpInArms]

31. Oil Inventories Report: Distillates and Gasoline Inv. DOWN

10:31am 11/10/04 U.S. CRUDE STKS UP 1.8 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 11/10/04 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS DOWN 100,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 11/10/04 U.S. GASOLINE STKS DOWN 400,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

[54anickel]

43. I thought they were predicting them UP WTF? n/t

[54anickel]

32. A Clear Mandate (But Will The Foreign Creditors Go Along)

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

snip>

Ironically, the burden of dollar devaluation continues to be born by the euro, in spite of last week’s ostensibly bullish non-farm payrolls data which on the face of it, seems dollar bullish. The hapless beneficiary of dollar diversification flows, the euro hit yet another all-time high against the greenback last Friday, and the dollar index looks to have broken down decisively from a long term support level of 85 evident since the mid-1980s.

snip>

Things changed after the Asian financial crisis of 1997/98 when the bulk of these countries needed to rebuild reserves after the Asian crisis and were shocked by the lack of support (diplomatic and economic) from their ostensible American “protector” in the face of hostile speculative attacks against their currency regimes. This understandable paranoia against “hot money” also revived a natural proclivity toward neo-mercantilist trade policies.

Consequently this time around, dollar depreciation has been coincident with a marked deterioration in both the trade and current account deficits and this appears to be the main preoccupation the foreign exchange markets today. In the words of market commentator, Dan Norcini, “the structural defects in the dollar, namely the huge current account, trade and budget deficits, have become the complete focus of the currency markets and it appears that the entire mindset has changed. Forex traders are no longer viewing interest rate hikes as reversing the downward trend in the dollar. The structurals are now dominating.”

The collective judgement of the foreign exchange markets, and their corresponding impact on America’s capital markets, is something clearly beyond the control of the President, Congress and, indeed, the powerful US military (short of sending Special Forces units into the trading rooms of Wall Street and the City of London). The usual reply from the White House when asked about exchange rates is to say that they are set by the market. This is only half true: that there has not been an emerging markets-type currency crash is partly a function of foreign investors continuing to be lulled by the false sense of security furnished by a dollar reserve currency system, a system subject to repeated abuse by America’s monetary and financial authorities.

But in spite of the lack of perceived risk which might be more readily recognised were large portions of US debt foreign denominated, private portfolio preferences are clearly shifting rapidly away from the greenback. If the dollar’s external value were truly being set by the market – as represented by private capital – it would now be even weaker. The massive dollar purchases by Asian central banks, aimed at holding down their currencies against the dollar and pursuing neo-mercantilist trade policies, have prevented the dollar’s decline from turning into a free fall – at least against the Asian currencies.

snip>

More to the point, a revaluation is very much at the discretion of Asia’s official sector, not American voters or the Federal Reserve. It is conceivable that the Japanese and Chinese could rally the troops and beat off another attack on the dollar, but now that the election is over, it is unclear whether Washington cares enough to play along. The new mandate, with its emphasis on getting the economy growing again, may indeed pursue a more explicit policy of dollar devaluation and export led growth (look at GE’s strategic shift as articulated a couple of week ago in the FT away from finance back to high tech heavy industry), and tax incentives to support domestic industrial investment (consider the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 just through the House and Senate).

more...

[UpInArms]

34. you make me laugh, 54anickel!

The usual reply from the White House when asked about exchange rates is to say that they are set by the market. This is only half true: that there has not been an emerging markets-type currency crash is partly a function of foreign investors continuing to be lulled by the false sense of security furnished by a dollar reserve currency system, a system subject to repeated abuse by America’s monetary and financial authorities.

Eventually, the fools at the helm will sink this ship.

[54anickel]

38. Remember that article recently where some idiot made the statement

that went something like "hopefully they will turn to the US stock market". That was with regards to China and their looking for diversification for their over abundance of buck-a-roos.

These people are idiots!

[reprobate]

48. And what will happen if / when china unties the yuan from the dollar

and ties it to the euro instead. Better stand away from the elevator. It's going down.

[54anickel]

35. Greenspan, Fed Governors Warn on Spending as Succession Looms

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aupqr_mhmBUs&refer=us

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says the growing U.S. budget deficit could destabilize the economy. Fed Governor Susan Bies says Congress spends like it's dipping into a ``a cookie jar.'' St. Louis Fed President William Poole says Social Security is in jeopardy.

In the last two months, Greenspan and at least seven other Fed officials have warned lawmakers about tax and spending policies that have led to record budget and current account gaps.

As Greenspan, 78, in January begins his last year atop the central bank, the comments suggest Fed members are concerned his successor will have less room to guide an economic expansion should they have to raise interest rates to counter a plunging dollar or surge in spending. Fed policy makers are likely to raise the benchmark rate by a quarter point to 2 percent when they meet today in Washington, a Bloomberg News survey shows.

``If you get to a point of fairly significant long-term structural budget deficits, it begins to impact on the level of long-term interest rates,'' Greenspan told the House Budget Committee on Sept. 8. That means the government must pay higher rates to borrow money, leading to even higher deficits, he said.

``If you get into that sort of debt maelstrom, it is a very difficult issue to get out of,'' he said.

snip - had to get this in!>

Another challenge facing Greenspan in his final year is the behavior of the labor market. The economy has created just 814,000 net payroll jobs since the end of the last recession in 2001, even with average annualized GDP growth of 3.3 percent. That's the slowest pace of any expansion of the last 60 years.

much more...

[UpInArms]

36. Treasurys retain defensive stance

Market set for 10-year auction, Fed rate decision

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE0CFA95D%2DA255%2D42F0%2DB321%2D346104D39A2E%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasury prices maintained modest declines Wednesday after government data pointed to rising import prices and a still large, but scaled back, U.S. trade deficit.

Bond investors remained wary ahead of a probable interest-rate hike move later Wednesday by the Federal Open Market Committee. Read the full story.

Ahead of the FOMC decision is the week's final Treasury auction, with $14 billion in 10-year Treasury notes headed to the auction block.

"The bond market is likely to remain on the defensive ahead of the FOMC; though the policy outcome is factored (in), the statement could still have a wild card," said analysts at Action Economics.

At 10:30 a.m. Eastern, the 10-year Treasury note was off 5/32 at 100 even. Its yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile), which moves in direction opposite the price, climbed to 4.25 percent from 4.22 percent Tuesday.

...more...

[54anickel]

41. The Dollar's Uncertain Cushion

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/rebeccabyrne/10193360.html

snip>

Tighter monetary policy is often considered to be positive for the dollar, because higher rates make U.S. bonds more attractive to overseas investors. In order to buy these bonds, foreigners have to buy dollars and sell their own currency.

Still, the U.S. dollar index has fallen more than 5% since the central bank started hiking rates in late June, as investors have failed to shake off fears about the huge trade and budget deficits. The index is down about 9% from its highs in May.

"Some think deficits don't matter," said Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. "History indicates that what matters is committing to fiscal restraint, which is hard to find in Washington."

If government tax cuts are extended, the budget deficit could reach $4.5 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. And analysts estimate that the U.S. trade deficit hit $54 billion in September, the second-highest level in history.

While foreigners have been willing to finance these deficits so far, there are signs that they are becoming more reluctant to do so. In August, net purchases of Treasuries fell 34% to an 11-month low of $14.7 billion. Meanwhile, foreigners sold stocks to the tune of $2 billion after purchasing $9.8 billion in equities the month before.

When overseas investors buy fewer stocks and bonds, they also buy fewer dollars. This can prompt the Fed to hike interest rates to attract foreign capital.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Foreclosure rate 'scary' (Denver area)

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/real_estate/article/0,1299,DRMN_414_3317736,00.html

Through October, metro area running 28.4% ahead of 2003

By John Rebchook, Rocky Mountain News
November 10, 2004

Almost 10,000 metro-area real estate foreclosures have been filed in the first 10 months of this year, eclipsing last year's tally.

And only a technicality prevented that number from exceeding 10,000. That's because at least two counties - Denver and Arapahoe - decided not to hold foreclosure sales during the week before Christmas.

snip>

Last year's foreclosures were surpassed only by the 17,122 foreclosures filed in 1988. Foreclosures last year accounted for about 1 percent of the homes on the market, compared with 2.3 percent of the housing stock in 1988.

"I don't think this is a surprise," said economist Tucker Hart Adams. "People were encouraged by extremely low mortgage rates and extremely innovative mortgage products to buy homes, buy bigger homes and get out of apartments into homes for the first time. Many of these people, if they miss only one or two paychecks, are not being able to make their mortgage payment."

If, as expected, interest rates continue to rise, that could accelerate foreclosures, she said.

"Traditionally, 75 percent of the mortgages were fixed and 25 percent were floating, but I hear that last year that maybe 60 percent to 70 percent of the loans were floating," she said.

more...

[54anickel]

46. Gold Supply Under Pressure - Merrill Fund Mgr

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/041110/15/3oel8.html

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Merrill Lynch Investment Managers have a favorable outlook for gold, underpinned primarily by emerging pressures on supply, a leading member of the firm's London-based natural resources team said late Tuesday.

Amid "relatively static" demand, falling mine output over the coming years and the potential for a reduction in European central bank sales stand to prolong the rally in U.S. dollar gold prices, Merrill gold fund manager Evy Hambro explained during a visit to Sydney.

"We are definitely in a positive environment...and that's going to remain until the fundamentals deteriorate, and we don't see that changing," Hambro said on the sidelines of a presentation to financial advisers.

snip>

Strong currencies in many of the leading gold-producing countries are actually forcing production cuts, despite the high U.S. dollar gold price, Hambro explained.

"We've got a situation where the mined production of gold is going to be declining for the foreseeable future," he said.

more...

[54anickel]

52. New fund set to launch as gold hits a new high

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d4b93dcc-333b-11d9-b6c3-00000e2511c8.html

Gold prices on Wednesday nudged a fresh 16-year high for the fifth successive day as precious metal investors prepared for the imminent marketing campaign for a fund that will track the price of gold and will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

The gold investment fund, which is owned by the World Gold Council, on Monday lodged its “red herring” prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the US securities regulator. This is the last registration statement that must be filed with the SEC before a new investment issue is listed.

The World Gold Council is funded by some of the world's largest gold miners.

The fund, called Streettracks Gold Trust, will be distributed and marketed by State Street Securities, the US financial services group, and is expected to listed on the NYSE by the end of the year.

Officials at the World Gold Council did not comment on the Streettrack Gold Trust. However, investment funds said they had been contacted by banks associated with the new gold investment fund about presentations for the product later in the month. This is the strongest indication so far of long-awaited approval from the SEC. The council originally launched a gold investment prospectus with the regulator in May 2003.

more...

[54anickel]

47. The real fury of Fallujah (linked at 321gold - not market related, but I

can't help but post it.)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FK10Ak04.html

"The Romans create a desolation and call it peace."
- Tacitus

"The enemy has a face. It is Satan's. He is in Fallujah, and we are going to destroy him."
- Colonel Gary Brandl, US Marines

President George W Bush is "reaching out" to Fallujah - the first major foreign policy initiative of the second Bush administration. The name: Operation Phantom Fury. The strategy: precision-strike democracy. The message: kill them all, and let God sort them out.

Former US intelligence asset turned prime minister without a parliament Iyad Allawi - widely known in Baghdad as "Saddam without a moustache" - has got himself another title: the Butcher of Fallujah. On Sunday, before co-launching with the Pentagon the biggest urban war since the storming of Hue in 1968 Vietnam, Allawi installed de facto martial law in Iraq for 60 days. Historians and political scientists are breathlessly trying to explain to the world that no democratic election can possibly be preceded by a state of siege.

To add insult to injury, Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld is saying that Allawi is responsible for all major military decisions regarding Fallujah: only the Bible Belt may be gullible enough to believe that an Iraqi civilian without an army rules over the Pentagon. So it's the Vietnam tragedy all over again, replayed as farce - a biblical crusade in Mesopotamia. Those who learned their lessons from history know full well what happened after Hue.

The new Hue, or the new Grozny
The Pentagon spin machine is selling Operation Phantom Fury as a battle of good against evil to root out "terrorists" in the "militant stronghold" of Fallujah. It is selling war on civilians as "the liberation of the people of Fallujah" as well as the next step towards implementing "democracy" in Iraq. These are outright lies. Fallujans insist they are not harboring al-Qaeda fighters, or even the elusive Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The Pentagon insists that Fallujah is the headquarters of Zarqawi's al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (Unity and Holy War) movement. So if there's no Zarqawi - if he really does exist, he has already left the building, sources tell Asia Times Online - and no al-Qaeda, what's the point of unleashing this fury?

more...

[54anickel]

49. America's Unsustainable Boom

http://mises.org/fullstory.aspx?Id=1670

snip>

One mystery surrounding the current situation is the near record low long-term interest rates with the 10-year government bond hovering at around 4%. With a huge budget deficit, record low household savings rate, a housing bubble and an investment recovery, one would expect high interest rates. Are the low interest rates because of low inflation? No, while inflation is far below the levels of the 1970s it is not really that low. If you look at real interest rates you'll find that they are at historically very low levels. Is it because massive money supply increases have pushed real interest rates below their natural level? No, the money supply is increasing at a far slower rate than it has been for many years. So what is the cause of the low interest rates responsible for the current unsustainable situation?

The answer is the massive purchases of U.S. government bonds by Asian central banks, particularly the Bank of China and the Bank of Japan. During the first half of this year foreign central banks bought more than $201 billion of U.S. assets, $180 billion of which was U.S. government bonds. This means that foreign central banks financed more than 60% of the U.S. current account deficit and nearly the entire increase in government debt.

It might seem strange that they are so interested in buying such low-yielding securities as U.S. government bonds. But the reason why they do it is because they want to avoid a sharp increase in the value of their currencies against the dollar, which would deal a heavy blow against their export industries.

But this is in itself an unsustainable situation. Their increasing purchases of U.S. assets make them increasingly vulnerable to heavy losses if the dollar falls, but the increasing U.S. current account deficit forces them to increase their purchases to prevent their currencies from rising. The longer this unsustainable process is allowed to continue the heavier losses that will be inflicted on both sides.

Only if either Asian countries accept a sharp appreciation of their currencies or if the U.S. adopts a much tighter monetary and/or fiscal policies can the situation be prevented from getting worse. But as both solutions would create temporary downturns in the world economy, it is doubtful that the politicians in either Asia or the United States will be willing to face up to them.

The conclusion is that Alan Greenspan and George W. Bush did not prevent the stock market bubble of the late 1990s from turning into a crisis. They only postponed it.

[54anickel]

50. 12:46 update

Dow 10,417.03 +30.66 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,038.91 -4.42 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 1,165.94 +1.86 (+0.16%)
10-yr Bond 4.255% +0.037
30-yr Bond 4.975% +0.036
NYSE Volume 733,857,000
Nasdaq Volume 941,766,000


12:30PM : The breadth of the overall market has turned positive, with advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq outpacing decliners... Dow components Merck (MRK 26.65 +0.65) and Pfizer (PFE 27.45 -0.54) are for the first time in recent memory trading opposite one another... Merck, despite having its credit rating clipped by Moody's Investors Service for the first time in 10 years, continues to climb on news that Japan's Ono Pharmaceuticals Co. gave Merck rights to develop and market an acute stroke drug worldwide...
Meanwhile, competitor Pfizer continues to flirt with new 52-week lows after reports surfaced regarding an increased risk of heart attacks and strokes for people taking its arthritis drug Bextra... NYSE Adv/Dec 2051/1118, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1561/1326

12:05PM : Major indices have been mixed this morning, with Cisco's (CSCO 18.59 -1.16) disappointing Q1 results setting the overall negative tone for technology... Analyst downgrades of the semiconductor capital equipment space (Morgan Stanley) and PC makers Dell (DELL 37.17 -0.26) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 19.41 -0.29) - UBS - have contributed to the bearish bias... Retail, financial, and consumer discretionary, however, have shown relative strength, and have been aided by a positive turn in the energy group...

This comes on the heels of the weekly oil inventories report, which showed a 100K barrel fall in distillate inventories (consensus of a 400K rise) that served to renew concerns about meeting winter demand... Other factors that have held buying interest back in the early going has been the Fed's policy statement at 14:15 ET... While a 25 basis point tightening is certain, the policy statement is a bit of an unknown and could suggest another tightening at the December meeting... This morning's economic data have not made much of an impact on trading, but have also given a key glimpse into the trade deficit and labor market...

The September Trade Balance shrank to -$51.6 bln (consensus of -$54 bln), posting its best month on record as exports rose on falling imports, while weekly jobless claims showed a slight increase to 333K (consensus of 340K) but still affirmed an expanding labor market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1885/1254, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1502/1339

11:30AM : Indices hold tight to their morning trading ranges as the Nasdaq remains near its lows due to weakness in technology... One area attracting selling interest, other than the communications equipment sector (-2.35%) which remains under pressure due to worries about Cisco's quarterly results and Q2 guidance, is the semiconductor capital equipment space... Morgan Stanley downgraded the sector to Cautious from In-Line as it sees the start of an industry downturn, leading to slow industry growth with a slower recovery from excess capacity...

Equities that are losing ground are AMAT (-2.32%), NVLS (-2.85%) CYMI (-3.48%), KLAC (-3.06%) and LRCX (-2.35%)... SOX -2.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 1767/1316, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1260/1496

11:00AM : Market improves its stance some as the S&P 500 lifts into positive territory... Retail, financial, and consumer discretionary continue to exhibit relative strength and lead the blue chip averages' recovery effort.... Energy itself has pared some of its losses following the Energy Information Administration's weekly oil inventories report... The report showed a 100K barrel fall in distillate inventories, as compared to the consensus estimate calling for a 400K barrel rise... This figure has renewed concerns about heating oil supplies during the high-demand winter months...

As a result, the price of crude oil has reversed course (was down 4% earlier) and is now showing a slight gain, at $47.60/bbl... NYSE Adv/Dec 1538/1454, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1162/1560

10:30AM : Major indices continue to hug the unchanged mark... This morning's economic reports did not prove especially influential in pre-market trading, but they still provided color on the labor market and trade deficit... The September Trade Balance unexpectedly narrowed to -$51.6 bln (consensus of -$54 bln) as imports fell 0.8% while exports rose to a record... Weekly jobless claims increased by a modest 2K, to 333K (consensus of 340K) - a level that is still consistent with an expanding labor market as seen in October's non-farm payrolls figure of 337K...

Separately, weekly crude oil inventories were just released, and came in up 1.8 mln (consensus called for a 2 mln barrels increase)... So far, little reaction from the stock market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1499/1396, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1119/1478

10:00AM : Major indices remain mixed, as a sluggish technology sector continues to weigh heavily on the proceedings... Oil, at $47.37/bbl however, has been one positive development for the bulls as oil futures are at their lowest levels since Sept 22... The Energy Department's weekly inventory announcement is scheduled for 10:30 ET, and energy pundits expect crude inventories in the week ended November 5 to increase by 2 mln barrels... NYSE Adv/Dec 1403/1186, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1074/1269

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2020 (60%) 1582 (51%)
Declines 1184 (35%) 1339 (43%)
Unchanged 150 (4%) 154 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 438 (63%) 419 (46%)
Down Vol* 244 (35%) 482 (53%)
Unch. Vol* 10 (1%) 7 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 213 142
New Lo's 10 34

[54anickel]

51. Companies Sue Union Retirees To Cut Promised Health Benefits (WSJ)

Saw the title at Prudent Bear, so went digging for the article. Hellaburnin did this to Dresser retirees. The F-i-L recently got a letter from them about it. Her retired over 20 years ago from Dresser, long before Cheney bought and sold them.

Summary from the abstract:
Creative Strategies

Companies that cut retiree health benefits promised in writing may use one
or more arguments or tactics:

-- Escape Clause: Insert sentence in benefit plan saying company "reserves
the right to change benefits.

-- Life Line: Argue that "lifetime coverage refers to life of the
contract, not lives of retirees.

-- Fine Print: Say that retirees signing health-plan enrollment forms
waived prior agreements.

-- Trip to Court: Sue retirees, ask court to declare company has right to
cut benefits.

snip>

When a deputy sheriff came to his door with a court summons, George Kneifel, a retiree in Union Mills, Ind., was mystified. His former employer was suing him.

The employer, beverage-can maker Rexam Inc., had agreed in labor contracts to provide retirees with health-care coverage. But now the company was asking a federal judge to rule that it could reduce or eliminate the benefit.

Many companies have already cut back company-paid health-care coverage for retirees from their salaried staffs. But until recently, employers generally were barred from touching unionized retirees' benefits because they are spelled out in labor contracts. Now, some are taking aggressive steps to pare those benefits as well, including going to court.

In the past two years, employers have sued union retirees across the country. In the suits, they ask judges to rule that no matter what labor contracts say, they have a right to change the benefits. Some companies also argue that contract references to "lifetime" coverage don't mean the lifetime of the retirees, but the life of the labor contract. Since the contracts expired many years ago, the promises, they say, have expired too.

The companies taking such steps remain a minority. Most big employers continue to provide the retiree health coverage spelled out in labor contracts. But the number of employers using the courts to attempt to reduce benefits for union retirees is rising, and some have been successful. "There's absolutely no doubt that there's been an increasing number of cases over the past three years," says Richard Brean, associate general counsel of the United Steelworkers of America.

snip>

Employers that want to cut union retirees' health coverage or make retirees pay a larger portion could just impose changes and wait to be sued. But by suing first, they stand a chance of choosing the jurisdiction. This is important, because federal circuits' appellate courts tend to take differing positions in these disputes. Indeed, the unsettled nature of the law on these issues -- with employers' arguments sometimes succeeding and sometimes not -- may be a factor prompting some companies to have a go at gaining the legal right to change benefits.

[54anickel]

53. 2:10 update

Dow 10,407.16 +20.79 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,039.74 -3.59 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,165.28 +1.20 (+0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.247% +0.029
30-yr Bond 4.973% +0.034
NYSE Volume 949,157,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,193,989,000

2:00PM: Market continues to trade with a tinge of caution ahead of the FOMC's policy statement at 14:15 ET... The fed funds futures continues to factor in a nearly 100% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points to 2.0%... The policy statement is really the only unknown in regards to the Fed's action today, but Briefing.com expects it to be quite similar to the one issued in September... It should note stronger output growth and improved labor market conditions as inflation pressures and expectations remain modest...
October Treasury Budget was just released and came in at -$57.3 bln (consensus is -$58.0 bln)... So far, market action is holding steady as investors await the FOMC's announcement...NYSE Adv/Dec 1950/1281, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1621/1364

1:30PM: Indices retreat from earlier levels as sellers return from the sidelines... But a buying interest still appears prevalent in some issues... Homebuilding is still somewhat higher for the day despite this morning's report that the mortgage applications index fell 4.5% % over the week ended Nov 5... The reason for this is likely D.R. Horton Inc's (DHI 32.20 +0.44) Q4 report... The homebuilder reported a 52% increase in Q4 earnings on strong orders for new homes and also forecasted better than expected results for FY05...NYSE Adv/Dec 1948/1280, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1567/1391

1:00PM: Stocks continue to trade sideways ahead of the FOMC meeting due out in about an hour and a half (14:15 ET)... But an encouraging Q3 earnings report from Federated Department Stores (FD 53.85 +0.05) is contributing to the buying interest in retail... The operator of Macy's and Bloomingdale's beat analyst expectations by three cents and reaffirmed its outlook for Q4...Also catching a bid, despite losing ground 2 of the last 3 sessions and issuing a "cautious" Q4 outlook following its Q3 results (yesterday), is Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 43.84 +1.84)...

Shares of the specialty retailer are climbing to three-year highs...NYSE Adv/Dec 2014/1206, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1607/1311

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1975 (57%) 1603 (50%)
Declines 1275 (37%) 1384 (43%)
Unchanged 168 (4%) 172 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 537 (60%) 493 (43%)
Down Vol* 337 (37%) 620 (54%)
Unch. Vol* 21 (2%) 24 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 230 156
New Lo's 11 34



The buck:

Last trade 84.44 Change +0.15 (+0.18%)

Settle 84.29 Settle Time 23:35

Open 84.24 Previous Close 84.29

High 84.67 Low 83.70

[UpInArms]

54. GM offers locked rates on future cars (next car purchase incentive)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8CAFFE98%2D95AD%2D41AE%2DA08F%2D11ABAE15D68E%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- General Motors, the auto industry's leader in offering consumer incentives, on Wednesday used the specter of rising interest rates to prod new car buyers to lock in current low rates for not only their next purchase, but the one after that, as well.

GM's latest "Lock & Roll" deal, unveiled on the same day the Federal Reserve was expected to raise interest rates, allows qualified buyers to lock in at historically low levels on their next two vehicles, provided they buy a 2005 model through the automaker's financing arm.

"Millions of Americans have refinanced their mortgages to lock in historically low interest rates," said Mark LaNeve, head of marketing in North America. "With the prospect of interest rate hikes in the future, GM's unique Lock 'n' Roll program applies the same principle by allowing consumers to lock in extremely low rates ..."

Led by GM (GM: news, chart, profile), U.S. automakers have been aggressively offering incentives in the form of rebates and attractive financing to boost flagging sales amid cutthroat competition, at home and abroad.

In September, GM's 72-hour, zero-percent sale brought buyers to the lots as the world's largest automaker increased unit sales by 20 percent for the month. See full story.

Under the new incentive program, customers have a choice between three years at zero percent interest, up to four years at 2.9 percent and up to five years at 3.9 percent.

...more...

[hatrack]

56. Freakin' desperation

On top of 12, 13, 14K discounts on their sheet iron, they have to do THIS?

[UpInArms]

59. more mumbo-jumbo from GM

designed to confuse

2:55pm 11/10/04 GM: CHANGE IN ACCTG TO INCREASE TOTAL ASSETS BY 1.5%

2:56pm 11/10/04 GM SEES NO EFFECT ON EARNINGS FROM ACCTG CHANGE

2:54pm 11/10/04 GM, GMAC TO FILE Q3 10-Q WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

[UpInArms]

55. FOMC raises interest rates to 2%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDC7780C2%2DD252%2D4B87%2D8D9B%2D141AC435628B%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target for overnight interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 2 percent Wednesday and signaled that further rate hikes can be expected.

The increase was anticipated by traders and economists on Wall Street. The vote of the FOMC was unanimous.

The rate hike is the fourth this year. The Fed has now doubled the federal funds rate from a four-decade low of 1 percent earlier this year.

"Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions have improved," the statement said. "Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well-contained."

Interest rates are still "accommodative," the statement said, an acknowledgement that the FOMC is probably not finished raising rates. The committee could pause at one or more meetings along the path to restoring interest rates to a neutral level that neither helps nor hinders the economy.

The committee once again concluded that its "accommodation" could be removed "at a pace that is likely to be measured." Read the statement.

...more...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20041110/default.htm

Release Date: November 10, 2004


For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions have improved. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole.

...more...


2:20pm 11/10/04 DOLLAR AT 107.17 YEN VS. 107.27 YEN BEFORE FED RELEASE

2:19pm 11/10/04 DOLLAR DECLINES AFTER FED STATEMENT RELEASED

2:20pm 11/10/04 EURO AT $1.2894 VS. $1.2879 BEFORE FED ANNOUNCEMENT

[54anickel]

57. The Joke's On Us

Edit to replace duplicate post of FOMC statement with a tidbit from Mogambo. (Last entry on the page)

http://www.howestreet.com/story.php?ArticleId=752

snip>

"All this suggests two important things: first, that the reported new paradigm increases in real GDP and productivity growth have been exaggerated by a statistical illusion; and second, that real interest rates have been far too low in relation to real inflation, which also explains the most rampant money and credit creation that the United States has ever seen in recent history."

He then quotes the heroic Bill Gross of PIMCO, who wrote: "The CPI inaccurately calculates Americans' cost of living. Since social security and pension benefits as well as the level of wage hikes are predicated upon the specific number and/or the perception of annual increases, Americans are being in effect conned by their government and falling behind the inflationary eight-ball year after year."

Mr. Liu continues: "With every passing day, more market watchers are joining the ranks of those predicting looming financial crisis in U.S. markets from excessive debt, particularly external debt." Unfortunately, he says, "This danger cannot possibly be defused by China, regardless of what monetary policy it adopts.

"But the longer the Fed takes to bring (the Fed Funds rate) back to neutral or restraining levels," he says "the bloodier will be the crash of the bond market when it happens. And it will happen. Reality does not stop merely because some short-sellers lost money. Borrowing short-term to finance long-term bets is a deadly game that cannot be made safe by hedging, no matter how sophisticated the strategy. Hedging does not eliminate risk; it only transmits unit risk onto systemic risk."

And no truer words were ever spoken, even though neither the Federal Reserve, nor the banks sucking money, vampire-like, out of the system, nor the SEC, or Wall Street, nor the government, nor the armies of clueless university economics professor morons, nor any of the stock touts on TV believe a word of it. To the contrary, they all believe, for reasons that they cannot enunciate, that financial derivatives in quantities that swamp global GDP will prove to be some bizarre economic savior or another. But one day, when the whole derivative mess collapses in a huge stinking heap, they will rise as one and say, "The Mogambo was right! We are all a bunch of idiots! All hail The Mogambo!"

[UpInArms]

58. 2:54 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,429.72 +43.35 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,045.54 +2.21 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,168.45 +4.37 (+0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.222% +0.004

NYSE Volume 1,128,517,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,406,623,000

2:35PM: The major indices continue to strengthen following the Fed's move to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.0%... The policy statement, as Briefing.com suggested, is virtually identical to September's policy statement... The only areas that the Fed has tinkered with have been in regards to output and the labor market...

Today, the Fed said that output appears to be growing at a moderate pace (in September the Fed said that output growth appears 'to have gained some traction') and that labor market conditions have improved (in September the Fed said that labor market conditions have improved 'modestly')... The statement suggests that the Fed has more confidence in the economy, which in turns signals that it will be tightening at the December meeting...

A full copy of the November policy statement can be found here: "The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions have improved. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained. The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability."NYSE Adv/Dec 2045/1227, Nasdaq Adv/Dec...

dollar

Last trade 84.39 Change +0.10 (+0.12%)

Settle 84.29 Settle Time 23:35

Open 84.24 Previous Close 84.29

High 84.67 Low 83.70

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-10 14:24:12 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

60. Crude futures climb 3.2%, head back toward $49

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38301.6270556597-826364311&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- December crude rose $1.49 to close at $48.86 a barrel in New York after tapping a high of $49 late in the session. The Energy Department reported declines in distillate and gasoline supplies for last week, fueling the day's price climbs. But crude futures failed to recover all of Tuesday's 3.5 percent loss with crude supplies up for a seventh week. December natural gas followed crude higher and broke a four-session decline to close at $7.678 per million British thermal units, up 20.7 cents.

[54anickel]

63. Bullish on crude, bullish on bonds

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2004/11/05/stories/2004110500101100.htm

snip>

The magnitudes attributed to hedge funds and speculators are only directly proportional to one's imagination. There is an unwillingness to grasp the issue of how much oil there exactly is below the ground in OPEC, particularly in Saudi Arabia and how much of it can be easily extracted. Without finding the answers to it, it is hard to conclude that the recent oil price spike is all the work of speculators. I reckon that the world is in for a crude shock in the year(s) ahead. (Readers should regularly download the newsletters from www.peakoil.net and form their own conclusions.)

Despite my bullishness on oil, I remain an optimist that inflation would remain largely contained, not just in the US. Bill Gross, the well-known global bond fund manager in PIMCO, wrote a very persuasive piece (his October Monthly Investment Outlook: http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary /IO/2004/IO_Oct_2004. htm) on how America is massively cooking its inflation numbers. Some 46 per cent of the items that go into the calculation of the consumer price index are adjusted for quality improvements that reduce the reported inflation rate. This, according to him, enables the Federal Reserve keep interest rates low and thus blow asset bubbles. As for America, he does have a persuasive point.

Such methods when applied to calculation of unemployment, pension benefits, does rob the recipient of money. It reduces workers' ability to extract wage revisions commensurate with the actual nominal charge on their wallets. Further, it overstates or flatters America's economic performance compared to Europe. But these are different issues.

snip>

In my view, the reasons are obvious: Global excess capacity prevails, wage pressures are subdued and there is worker uncertainty. The issue of worker insecurity is crucial to understanding the prevalence of asset price inflation and the absence of consumer price inflation.

more...

[UpInArms]

61. Piehole Alert: Bush: Commanders in Iraq haven't asked for more troops

3:11pm 11/10/04 BUSH: IRAQI CITIZENS WANT TO VOTE FOR THEIR LEADERS

3:10pm 11/10/04 BUSH: COMMANDERS IN IRAQ NOT ASKING FOR MORE TROOPS

3:11pm 11/10/04 BUSH WOULD CONSIDER REQUEST FOR MORE TROOPS IN IRAQ

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38301.6360231944-826365526&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- President Bush said Wednesday that U.S. commanders in Iraq have not asked for substantially more troops but he said that he would seriously consider their requests for more forces.

[UpInArms]

62. 3:17 EST numbers and blather (piehole effect in action)

Dow 10,390.27 +3.90 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,035.95 -7.38 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,163.94 -0.14 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.257% +0.039

NYSE Volume 1,227,996,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,523,036,000

3:00PM: Advancers extend their edge over decliners at both the NYSE and Nasdaq as the major indices move to new session highs ... Meanwhile, bonds have relinquished their gains after a short-lived rally following the FOMC's fourth consecutive rate hike... The dollar has actually moved lower against the euro and yen as currency traders expected some mention of the greenback (via a budget deficit comment) in the policy statement... Its absence implies that officials will do little - aside from reiterating their 'strong dollar' policy - to stem the dollar's freefall...

The dollar was trading at record lows against the euro earlier today on news that the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed by a small amount - suggesting that more dollars were needed to be converted into other currencies to pay for imports... NYSE Adv/Dec 2062/1220, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1718/1313

[54anickel]

64. The DOW definitely wants 10,400 for the day. Was just in the red and

now shooting back up. Oops, wait, now back down. Nevermind, I'll wait for the close. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

67. 3:49 EST numbers and blather (10,401)

Dow 10,401.63 +15.26 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,035.70 -7.63 (-0.37%)
S&P 500 1,164.67 +0.59 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.254% +0.036

NYSE Volume 1,385,350,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,709,445,000

3:35PM: Sellers show some resolve as the major indices quickly retreat from their highs and flirt with the unchanged mark...Choppy trading following a Fed meeting is nothing new for this market - in the past four times the Fed has raised rates, the indices have traded in a skittish fashion... Earnings of note tonight include Starbucks (SBUX 55.60 +0.78), which is expected to report Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.25 per share on revenue of $1.43 bln...

Tomorrow before the bell, retail dominates the earnings calendar as general merchandiser Target (TGT 51.00 -0.09) and specialty retailer American Eagle (AEOS 43.02 +0.55) are among others reporting quarterly results... But after the close tomorrow, technology will return to the limelight with Q3 earnings and guidance from Dell (DELL 36.83 -0.60)... Analysts expect the PC maker to post $0.33 on revenues of $12.5 bln...NYSE Adv/Dec 1990/1329, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1617/1439

[54anickel]

68. DOH! Guess it wasn't meant to be - closing numbers

Dow 10,385.48 -0.89 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,034.56 -8.77 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,162.91 -1.17 (-0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.254% +0.036
30-yr Bond 4.976% +0.037
NYSE Volume 1,505,734,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,836,723,000

3:35PM: Sellers show some resolve as the major indices quickly retreat from their highs and flirt with the unchanged mark...Choppy trading following a Fed meeting is nothing new for this market - in the past four times the Fed has raised rates, the indices have traded in a skittish fashion... Earnings of note tonight include Starbucks (SBUX 55.60 +0.78), which is expected to report Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.25 per share on revenue of $1.43 bln...
Tomorrow before the bell, retail dominates the earnings calendar as general merchandiser Target (TGT 51.00 -0.09) and specialty retailer American Eagle (AEOS 43.02 +0.55) are among others reporting quarterly results... But after the close tomorrow, technology will return to the limelight with Q3 earnings and guidance from Dell (DELL 36.83 -0.60)... Analysts expect the PC maker to post $0.33 on revenues of $12.5 bln...NYSE Adv/Dec 1990/1329, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1617/1439

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2002 (57%) 1638 (50%)
Declines 1335 (38%) 1444 (44%)
Unchanged 145 (4%) 168 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 811 (59%) 594 (34%)
Down Vol* 536 (39%) 1109 (64%)
Unch. Vol* 27 (1%) 28 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 274 190
New Lo's 13 38

[UpInArms]

69. closing blather

It was a choppy day of trading as traders digested the ramifications of the FOMC's policy decision, along with a number of developments within the technology and energy spaces... The end result left the major indices slightly lower at the close, despite an initial spike following the Fed's policy statement at 14:15 ET... As expected, the fed raised the fed funds rate 1/4% to 2.0% and, in its policy statement, suggested that it has more confidence in the economy... This suggested that another 25 basis point move at the December 14 was imminent... Despite the implication, the market rallied in the minutes following the decision, but quickly fell lower as traders took profits following (1) the indices' tremendous run over the past 2 weeks and (2) oil's spike to its highs of the day ($48.45/bbl, +1.08)... This came following the weekly oil inventories report, which showed a 100K barrel fall in distillate inventories (consensus of a 400K rise) that served to renew concerns about meeting winter demand... Energy thus showed relative strength throughout the day, along with retail and financial... Technology, conversely, was the biggest loser of the session due in part to a number of bearish brokerage firm calls... Analyst downgrades of PC makers Dell (DELL 36.85 -0.58) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 18.97 -0.73) - by UBS - and the semiconductor capital equipment space - Morgan Stanley - pressured the group... Computer hardware and semiconductor were thus some of the largest laggards, although the latter was lifted off its lows following intraday news of Intel's (INTC 22.86 -0.22) doubling of its dividend and 500 mln share buyback... Today's economic data did not make much of an impact on trading, although they provided important reads into the trade deficit and labor market... The September Trade Balance shrank to -$51.6 bln (consensus of -$54 bln), posting its best month on record as exports rose on falling imports, while weekly jobless claims showed a slight increase to 333K (consensus of 340K) but still affirmed an expanding labor market... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1961/1374. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1650/1426.

[UpInArms]

65. U.S. gov't to lower terror alert for fin'l institutions

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38301.648542662-826367064&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. government said Wednesday it will lower the terror alert status to yellow from orange for financial institutions located in New York, New Jersey and Washington, D.C.

[54anickel]

66. HA! Will anyone even notice? The color chart has lost its usefulness now

that the election is over and Asscroft is on his way out.