STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 9 November

[ozymandius]

Tuesday November 9, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 333 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 22 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1083
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 8, 2004

Dow... 10,391.31 +3.77 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq... 2,039.25 +0.31 (+0.02%)
S&P 500... 1,164.89 -1.28 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.22% +0.03 (+0.69%)
Gold future... 433.40 -0.80 (-0.18%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Willie

DOMINO DISTORTIONS FROM THE CPI & PCE

When the price inflation is distorted and falsely reported low, many consequences happen in effect. The grandest effect is to exaggerate economic growth (GDP). The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index used to build the “Deflator” in the Gross Domestic Product calculation seems to low-ball systemic price inflation even more than the CPI does for consumers!!! This is important, especially if you wish to promote a distorted picture of GDP with a motive to sell Treasury bonds or to seek political office. Any claim that the adjusted GDP is “real GDP” is simply Orwellian in its basis in truth. The end result is that perhaps half of reported GDP growth is a fiction. Many shams can easily be identified. They are invisible to those whose bloodlines are powered either by vested interest in the financial sector or by politically driven pumps.

Gross Domestic Product calculations are powered by several forces. Under-stated price inflation provides the greatest lift. Chain weighting compounds the understatement error. The adjusted GDP is amplified by hedonic methods, whose absurd lift in information technology spending creates an artificial world of accounting and reporting to the public. As computer speeds increase, so do the hedonic multipliers.

-cut-

Take an example as a lesson. Suppose prices uniformly rose 5% over an entire year across the entire economy, owing to the USDollar decline and rising prices for imports of materials and energy, in combination with massive printing of money by the USGovt. Suppose also that zero actual economic growth took place in a flat economy, as prices rose but no growth took place. The official adjustment might call for removal of only 2% of the price inflation. The end result of the deception is then claimed economic growth (via the GDP) reported at 3% when there was no growth at all. My personal analysis and assessment is that perhaps half of claimed economic growth inside the reported GDP is fictional, from improperly adjusted price inflation, that real GDP growth in the last few quarters has ranged somewhere between 1.5% and 2.5%, not 3.0% to 4.0% or more.

-cut-

EFFECT ON BOND YIELDS & ASSET PRICES

Wrongly reported CPI means that the bond market improperly delivers the deserved yield in interest rates to bond holders, which is warranted. They are cheated of a few percent in yield routinely, which would compensate them for capital erosion due to price inflation. Nobody in his or her right mind believes price inflation is in the 2% to 3% range. The reality is at least two times those figures. As a result, prevailing bond yields are kept too low by 2% to 3%, which bears immediately on stock valuation models. Hardly reported, the impact is low income returns for retirees, as their bond portfolio income is insufficient for their cost of living. Reports are rampant that the elderly are taking part-time jobs in response. Political power resides with active credit-hungry borrowers, not retired savers. If long-term bonds should be a few percent higher to offset price inflation, then the S&P stock index is perhaps 15% to 20% overvalued. The root of most amplified exaggerations in asset prices is improperly reported price inflation. Not only is economic growth distorted, but a wide array of asset prices are distorted as well.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

5. Wow, excellent explanation of CPI, PCE and GDP by Willie this week!

I'll have to print this one out for the family Thanksgiving gathering discussion. Heh, we tend to digress to discussions of politics and the economy shortly after dessert before the Sheep's head game starts. We won a couple of the "in-laws" over to the "D" column this year over his fiscal irresponsibility, but they remain "Rs" at heart and have faith in the economy and supply-side.

Hey, we're still working on them - progress to progressive thinking takes time. ;-)

[Pallas180]

65. Hey I appreciate this. Pls make it a regular column here guys.

:hi:

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

2. Dollar? Whassup wid it?

Where is it going today. It was pretty flat yesterday.

Is this an intenational head game or does it have real legs?

My gut says "real legs".

[54anickel]

8. Bit o' blather for you from Ino

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO

CURRENCIES http Commentary://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies

The December Dollar was higher overnight as it extends Monday's short covering bounce but remains below monthly support crossing at 84.77. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bearish mode and rising signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the decline continues, monthly support crossing at 83.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.87 then gap resistance crossing at 85.94 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The December Euro was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it extends Monday's decline and is trading below broken weekly resistance crossing at 129.190. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. However, closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.081 would signal that December has posted a short-term top. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

snip the pound and franc>

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish and rising signaling that additional short-term gains are possible. If December extends this fall's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .8456 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8244 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's gains. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of weekly resistance crossing at .9518 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at .9376 would increase the odds that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought however, the daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

[UpInArms]

26. technical dollar support numbers

Technical Commnetary 11/9/04

http://www.dailyfx.com/article_daily_technicals_110904.html

find support at 1.2900 (the upper band of the regression channel) at the onset of the European session. see chart - .pdf only However, the bid was picked up - and appears to be heading for a potential double top at the all time highs. A break seems likely given the recent lack of inertia but we cant rule out the impact of this week’s events on the market.
Key levels: As we noted Friday, ” … naturally we have the sizable barrier created by the all time high. However, subsequent to that fib projections indicate 1.2985/1.3000 as the next level of bullish inertia. Shortly thereafter 1.3015/20 has been indicated….” and we confidently reaffirm the significance of the region. If the region is breached however we have deduced that 1.3075/90 could be the next basis. On the support side, former resistance should become support, with 1.2935 eyed due to the solid resistance the region created as the former all time high. The upper reaches of the previous intermediate range (1.2820-1.2700) should create support thereafter. It should be noted however, that despite the potentially dollar supportive mid-session events (FOMC), the uptrend will remain in tact as the regression channel lower band sits 350-pips and the 20-day SMA nearly 325-pips below present pricing, also major MAs (100/200-day SMA) are over 600-pips away at this moment - just half of the gap at the run up to previous all time highs in Jan-Feb.

USD/JPY -The pair has finally broken down the supportive level of 105.70 landing on the projected support (105.35/40) we noted at the close of last week’s session. Although, the bid is expected to perk things up considering the specter of BoJ intervention looming at 105.00. As we noted on various occasions last week, “…moves to the spike highs of the range (107.00/10) could be in the deck; and would not necessarily negate our inference ”, and we confidently reaffirm given the failure of the resistance we noted last week in the 106.65 (10-day SMA (106.05). The descending 10-day SMA remains to be a heavy influence on price action. Daily Stochs’ (7.04) and RSI (30.91) remain deeply depressed but have perked up recently.
Key levels: Going forward, we have sizable support created by this week’s lows (105.35) with Fib projections indicating 104.95 as sizable support. Using last week’s range (107.10-105.70), former support (105.70) should now act as resistance with the 10-day SMA thereafter. A break above last week’s lows (105.70) region could open the gate to a test of 107.10 (the range high).

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.10 Change +0.01 (+0.01%)

Today's Report:

Nov 9 10:00 AM
Wholesale Inventories Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 1.0%
market anticipates 0.7%
last report 0.9%
revised -

also, there will be an oil inventories report (probably around 10:00 EST)

Dollar Steers Clear of Record Low Vs Euro

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20041109&ID=4082483

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar on Tuesday held almost a cent above its record low against the euro, winning respite from recent heavy selling ahead of U.S. trade data and an expected rise in U.S. interest rates on Wednesday.

The euro was also hurt by data from Germany's ZEW research institute which said its gauge of investor confidence in Germany fell to its lowest level in almost two years in November.

The pause in the dollar's downtrend came after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet warned on Monday against the euro's rapid rise, following the currency's five-percent gain versus the dollar over the last month.

``Euro/dollar uptrend is firmly in place, and the factors come primarily from the dollar. The focus will turn to the U.S. side with the trade deficit data tomorrow,'' said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London.

``This (ZEW) was a very weak number indeed and we could go down to $1.2830/20.''

Worries over the United States' current account and budget deficits have put heavy pressure on the greenback, which hit a nine-year low against a basket of currencies on Monday.

...more...

Ozy - that 'toon is priceless :D

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

4. Dollar steady to firmer ahead of Wednesday Fed meeting

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.3712784259-826201813&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar was steady against the euro and gained modestly against the Japanese yen, British pound and Swiss franc as the currency market anticipates a U.S. interest-rate hike this week. The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday and is widely expected to raise its target lending rate to 2 percent from 1.75 percent. The dollar was quoted at 105.74 yen in early U.S. trading, up 0.2 percent from Monday. The euro was unchanged at $1.2912. The pound fell 0.1 percent to $1.8547. The greenback rose 0.1 percent to 1.1826 Swiss francs. The dollar also found support as European officials continued to speak out against excessive moves in the currency markets.

Talk is cheap - when will people actually understand that words mean freakin' nothing and actions are what should be watched?

[54anickel]

14. Weak dollar less of a boost

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2004-11-08-dollar_x.htm

WASHINGTON — The dollar has been weakening against world currencies recently, a development that usually makes U.S. goods more competitive in global markets and helps sales.

But increased global competition, greater reliance on imported raw materials to make U.S. products, China's continued peg of its currency to the dollar and weak economies abroad may make the recent dollar depreciation less of a boost for U.S. businesses than it has in past periods of dollar declines.

snip>

The recent decline in the dollar stems from several factors, including foreign investors' increased nervousness about putting their money into the USA at a time when the nation is running large trade and budget deficits, considered risks to the U.S. economy.

A depreciation in the dollar is usually welcomed by U.S. businesses because it makes U.S. goods relatively cheaper both at home and in global markets. Just a few years ago, U.S. manufacturers were lobbying the administration to take steps to weaken the dollar.

I've also read that it helps to "overstate" profits made overseas by multinationals. They get a lot more bucks for that foreign currency they bring home, and they'll be bringing a lot of it home in 2005 thanks to Shrub's 30%, 12-month tax break for repatriating profits being held overseas.

But a weaker dollar may not be the boost it once was. Why:

more...

[54anickel]

17. Dollar's decline pinches U.S. retailers

Free registration or use bugmenot.com

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/1104/09currency.html?UrAuth=aN`NUOcN]UbTTUWUXUUUZT
snip>

Imports represent roughly 15 percent of the U.S. economy, and higher prices nudge importers to choose between thinner profits and losing customers. When retailers pass along costs, consumers typically react by buying less, buying something else or letting those higher prices eat into their standard of living.

Huh? I thought it was higher than that. Perhaps they are not taking the imported components of finished products? :shrug:

snip>

Fed watches situation

The slide of the dollar is watched anxiously by the Federal Reserve, fearful that a wave of import price increases could start a flow of inflation through the economy. So far that hasn't happened, and inflation probably will be seen as a background worry when the Fed's rate-setting committee meets Wednesday.

snip to the wtf is this guy smoking part>

But if the dollar's descent is gradual, the overall effect will continue to be barely noticeable. And gradual is what to expect, said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University.

The value of the dollar will slip about 3 percent to 5 percent in the coming year, he calculated. "It's not going to crash," Dhawan said, "because the central banks in Asia will keep propping it up." :eyes:

snip to the more realistic (IMHO) economist>

Economist Mark Weisbrot argues that the current arrangement — Asian banks supporting their country's exports by investing in a stronger dollar — cannot continue for long.

Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy and Research, said chances are good that once another decline in the dollar starts, it will accelerate. "I think a soft landing is possible, but I don't think it is likely. The dollar has to drop a lot."

[54anickel]

19. Rubin: Dollar Decline Could Accelerate

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Rubin-Dollar.html?oref=login

NEW YORK (AP) -- Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin warned Monday night that the dollar's recent decline could accelerate and interest rates could rise if politicians in Washington don't act quickly to narrow the federal budget deficit.

snip>

``If I were still at Treasury, I'd still be a strong advocate of a strong dollar policy,'' Rubin said in a speech at the 29th anniversary dinner of Columbia University's Knight-Bagehot business journalism program. That amounts to at least a veiled criticism of the Bush administration, which some critics contend is allowing the dollar to gradually weaken against key foreign currencies so as to make U.S.-produced goods cheaper in export markets.

snip>

``If markets begin to fear long-term fiscal disarray and if foreign providers of the capital inflows upon which we have now become so enormously dependent share this fear and also develop a concern about our currency, then the markets may begin to demand sharply higher interest rates on long-term debt and possibly even create conditions of serious disruptions in our financial markets, with all the problems that that can lead to for our economy,'' he said.

And he added, ``We have a lot of work to do in a very difficult political environment.''

snip to the utterly insane>

Rob Nichols, a U.S. Treasury Department spokesman, responded to Trichet's comments by saying the country's strong dollar policy remains unchanged and ``with regard to the budget deficit, we have laid out a plan to cut it in half in five years. We are committed to the plan. We are achieving that plan.''

more...

[54anickel]

39. Had to add this in lieu of Rubin's comment on China in this article

In the NYT article above, Rubin (now with Citigroup) is quoted as saying:

...``China is likely to be the largest economy in the world and a tough-minded geopolitical power equal to any other geopolitical power on the globe.'' He also said he expects continued slow growth in Europe and that ``Japan has not done most of what seems to me it has to do'' to shake off years of subpar economic growth.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/fe867668-31a3-11d9-97c0-00000e2511c8.html

Citigroup set for China loan deal

Citigroup is poised to break a deadlock on a long-awaited deal to buy Rmb2bn ($242m) of bad loans after Beijing introduced new rules to speed up the disposal of the more than $300bn in problem assets that are crippling China's financial sector.

The US group is believed to be in final negotiations with Great Wall Asset Management, one of the four state-owned asset management companies charged with cleaning up the balance sheet of China's four largest banks.

snip>

Five years after China announced its intention to reduce the NPLs of its state banks, just one deal with foreign buyers has been completed but only after two years of negotiations with regulators. However, under new regulations issued by China's National Development and Reform Commission late last month, the commission has pledged to issue approvals for purchases by foreign investors within 20 days of application.

The new fast-track process will be used as long as the value of the sales does not exceed a yearly total agreed by the AMCs and the commission. NPL sales will only require the approval of the commission and a registration with the government body in charge of foreign reserves.

Citigroup declined to comment on Monday. Separately, it said it would pay US$109m for a 16 per cent stake in Silver Grant, a Hong Kong-listed company controlled by Cinda Asset Management. Citigroup and Silver Grant will form a joint venture to buy NPLs in China.

[54anickel]

41. Global: Rethinking the China Slowdown (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041108-mon.html#anchor0

After extensive discussions in Beijing, I am changing my view on the China slowdown. Specifically, over the next year, I do not believe that the Chinese economy is going to soften as much as I had thought. This is a personal observation rather than a shift in our official view held by Andy Xie and his team, who are still looking for a marked slowing in Chinese GDP growth from 9.3% in 2004 to 7.0% in 2005. But it is clear to me that China’s policy makers are now aiming for only a modest further slowing in the economy. The key question is whether they will get their way in managing this gentle descent. My bet is they do.

I was eager to get back to China. I hadn’t been to Beijing since last June. Since that time, the China debate had moved to center stage in world financial markets. And with good reason: China’s marginal role in driving the global growth dynamic cannot be stated strongly enough. The IMF calculates that China accounted for fully 24% of the change in world GDP growth over the past three years (on a purchasing power parity basis) -- virtually double its 12.6% PPP weight in the world and fully six times its 4% share in nominal global GDP (at market exchange rates). Early this year, the Chinese leadership expressed serious concern about the overheated state of the economy. I heard this first hand from Premier Wen Jiabao at the annual China Development Forum in March. That, in fact, was the official stamp of approval on the slowdown debate that was then to follow. That pronouncement also ushered in a series of serious tightening measures taken by the Chinese authorities beginning in late April -- initially driven by so-called administrative actions aimed at restricting the quantity and allocation of credit but more recently accompanied by a more overt shift in monetary policy, underscored by the 28 October rate hike of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

The combination of micro and macro initiatives by increasingly concerned Chinese authorities convinced me that a marked slowdown was likely. Specifically, I had looked for this slowdown to be manifested in the form of a significant further slowing of China’s industrial output growth -- long my favorite metric of aggregate activity in this largely industrial economy. After hitting a peak rate of 19.4% in the first two months of 2004, I thought a soft landing would require the peak growth comparison to be cut in half -- temporarily taking the year-over-year industrial output trajectory down into the 8-10% range by mid-2005, not all that different from average gains in the late 1990s. Consequently, with industrial output growth having slowed to about 16% in September, I believed that the bulk of the slowing -- about 70% of it -- was still to come. I discussed this perspective in detail with senior Chinese officials last week in Beijing. They were virtually unanimous in suggesting my scenario was now far too draconian for their liking. In the words of one of China’s senior planners, “Impossible!”

snip>

What changed the Chinese leadership’s mind in assessing downside? I picked up four possibilities on my just-completed mission to Beijing -- the first being a fear of renewed deflation if the landing were to be too hard. While industrial output growth did hover in the 8-10% range during 1998-99, that period was associated with a mild decline in the Chinese price level. Most gauges of inflation have accelerated significantly since then, but the bulk of the CPI acceleration to 5.2% remains concentrated in the food category (which was up 10.9% Y-o-Y in September); with China’s market-driven “core” inflation still probably in the 1-2% zone, there is still fear of a deflationary relapse in the event of major growth slowdown.

Second, the Chinese leadership now seems increasingly inclined to attribute a significant portion of the recent overheating to a series of one-off changes that are not sustainable -- especially the infrastructure boom that came with the leadership transition of late 2002 and early 2003, as well as the property and housing boom in parts of coastal China. The SARS-related liquidity injection in the spring of 2003 only added more fuel to the stimulus. The senior Chinese officials that I spoke with on this trip argued that these temporary factors are now slowing on their own -- aided, of course, by the imposition of recently imposed credit restrictions. If that’s the case -- and Andy Xie has just written of a Chinese property market that could well be turning -- it makes little sense to put added constraint on an overheated sector that already is slowing (see his 7 November dispatch, “China: Property Market Turning?”).

more...

WHOOSH!

[54anickel]

29. Can Asia Dump Bretton Woods II as Dollar Falls?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_mukherjee&sid=aAwTOe4JIHIo

snip>

There's another important reason why Bretton Woods II may have to be dumped. Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, says that the current global financial system can be sustained only if Asian central banks act as a cartel and keep their existing and future reserves in U.S. dollars.

There is, however, no formal cartel. As a result, every Asian central bank will want to protect itself against an erosion in the value of its assets from a decline in the dollar.

Tragedy of Commons

In other words, what's in the interest of one Asian central bank isn't for all. Social scientists have a name for this phenomenon: ``Tragedy of the Commons.''

``All central banks may be better off if no bank tries to diversify its reserve holdings,'' Roubini says, ``but as the risks of dollar depreciation grows, each central bank has an incentive to defect and to try to protect itself from losses.''

Losses could indeed be large. Asian central banks own more than $2.2 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves out of a global total of $3.4 trillion. At the end of last year, almost 64 percent of central bank reserves globally were denominated in U.S. dollars, according to the International Monetary Fund.

As Asia tries to diversify out of the dollar, the U.S. currency may decline further. An individual central bank ``can only protect itself if it either shifts out of dollars and into euros ahead of the others, or buys a euro/dollar hedge before everyone else,'' Roubini says.

Adjustments will be painful...

more...

[UpInArms]

35. Oil Inventory Report due tomorrow

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6759924

excerpt:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report on Wednesday is expected to show a seventh straight rise in U.S. crude inventories, and a small increase in low distillate stocks, which include heating oil.

[UpInArms]

6. Countrywide Oct. loan fundings fall 6% from Sept.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.3802875231-826203288&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Countrywide Financial (CFC) said October loan fundings fell 6 percent from September to $29 billion for the month. Loan fundings increased 1 percent over October 2003. The Calabasas, Calif. mortgage giant said monthly purchase volume fell 12 percent from September and rose 20 percent from the year-ago period, reflecting a seasonal slow-down. Year-to-date purchase activity now stands at $145 billion, exceeding 2003's full year level of $130 billion. Countrywide fell 29 cents to $30.57.

[UpInArms]

7. Commerzbank to cut 75% NYC investment bank jobs

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.3753711343-826202490&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Commerzbank AG (DE:803200) affirmed plans to pull back in capital-markets activity as it announced plans to cut 75 percent of its investment-banking headcount in New York and to shutter the Tokyo division. The German bank told reporters that 490 out of 1,275 front-office jobs would go and that 410 back-office jobs were slated for cuts, AFF News reported from Frankfurt. Commerzbank's pre-tax loss for the third quarter narrowed to 121 million euros, yet it saw a 9 million euro loss from trading for the quarter. The bank is targeting an 8 percent return on equity in 2005 and said it expects a higher trading profit and an operating profit in the fourth quarter.

http://economy.news.designerz.com/commerzbank-to-slash-third-of-investment-bank-jobs.html

Commerzbank to slash third of investment bank jobs

Commerzbank, Germany's fourth-largest bank, plans to slash 450 jobs in its investment bank, a third of the division's workforce, a source close to the situation told AFP.

The downsizing at Commerzbank Securities will eliminate about 200 jobs in London, or 40 percent of staff, and about 50 jobs in Frankfurt, or about 10 percent of staff, the source said, confirming a report in the newspaper Handelsblatt.

A spokesman for Commerzbank refused to comment on the information, pointing out that the bank had scheduled a news conference next Tuesday to unveil the details of a restructuring plan for its investment banking activities.

According to Thursday's edition of Handelsblatt, citing sources within the banking industry, Commerzbank was planning to close the offices of ComSec in New York and Tokyo and downsize the offices in London and Frankfurt.

...more...

[54anickel]

9. Ozy, if toons could be nominated for the front page, this would get my

vote!

[ozymandius]

48. Thank you! Tom Toles is on top of his game! n/t

[54anickel]

10. PRIVATIZING SOCIAL SECURITY DOESN'T MAKE A LICK OF SENSE

Strange coming from the NYPOST. I've got a feeling his unspoken answer is to just kill the beast, but he raises good points against Shrub's proposal.

http://www.nypost.com/business/33711.htm

I'll say it again: allowing people to take some of their Social Security contributions and invest that money privately is not possible. End of story.

Wall Street staged a wonderful rally last week partly on this Social Security fantasy and it doesn't want to hear logic.

Politicians don't want to deal with it either because they believe people can be conned into thinking that such a simple plan will actually reform and strengthen Social Security.

It won't. But it could make the entire financial system of this country a lot weaker.

more...

[antigop]

20. Not trying to hijack the thread here but...

DO YOU THINK THEY CARE???

Giving tax cuts while waging war didn't make sense either, but they did it. NOTHING THEY DO MAKES SENSE. Why should they care about the consequences of Social Security privatization?

They move to private accounts, siphoning off the money that is needed to pay current beneficiaries. Then they claim "Sorry, there's no money. We have to fold it or cut benefits." And they will get half the country to go along with it.

They've run up over a half a trillion dollar deficit. THEY DON'T CARE.


Net: THEY DON'T CARE.

Sorry. Back to the stock market thread. I just couldn't let this go by without commenting.

[54anickel]

25. Comments are always appreciated. Thanks for chiming in! n/t

[ozymandius]

33. Republicans know it is not possible.

This talk about privatization is just a wad of spit to make the true believers and gullible feel good.

Getting this pipedream into the news cycle is all the Republicans care about.

[TrogL]

59. It's worse than that

THEY DON'T THINK IT WILL HAPPEN!!

There is no need for retirement planning. Nobody is going to retire. Armageddon is imminent. The Trump of doom is tomorrow. You need to cash in your retirement money and give it to Jerry Falwell.

[UpInArms]

30. Here's one to puke on regarding Social Security

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B87EE91DB%2D9808%2D448D%2D90A3%2D54AFC563D7E5%7D&siteid=mktw

Social Security's spoils
President Bush could cement legacy, financial firms profits

SANTA MONICA, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- Unlike Social Security itself, a safe bet will be on Wall Street -- for better earnings.


The headline-grabbing post-election reform mandate by President George W. Bush presents huge opportunity for financial-services firms whose job it would be to manage all that new privatized capital.

Bush has put forward the idea of allowing people to divert part of their payroll taxes into a self-managed retirement account, freeing up billions of dollars worth of funds that now go into the Social Security system.

And what, pray tell, to with that money? Invest in the capital markets, of course.

This type of Social Security reform would then accomplish two missions. It would provide Bush with a presidential legacy that would stretch into and affect generations of Americans to come and it would systematically reward Wall Street, a bastion of Bush support.

Leaving political commentary aside, the financial-services sector, which includes brokerage houses such as Citigroup, UBS Paine Webber, Morgan Stanley Chase and Merrill Lynch; mutual fund complexes such as Vanguard, Fidelity and American Funds; as well as big trading firms such as Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns all stand to make a huge windfall if even a portion - up to 10 percent, according to the Bush plan - of Social Security's half billion dollars in taxes collected annually is sent their way.

...more...

[54anickel]

37. Gotta love the last 2 paragraphs - what it's really all about

Social Security would be the perfect swan song for Bush. It presents an opportunity to put into action his own particular brand of political philosophy and at the same time contribute to the coffers of his biggest supporters. (Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, PricewaterhouseCoopers, UBS, Goldman Sachs, MBNA Corp, Credit Suisse First Boston, Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and Bear Stearns, in descending order, were Bush's 10 biggest campaign contributors.)

That commentary is meant as Bush-bashing, rather more as investment research. Defense stocks, after all, soared after the Iraq War commenced. Now, with the battle over Social Security about to be joined, financial-sector stocks are ready to make a run too.

[UpInArms]

11. 9:39 EST numbers and pre-opening blather

Dow 10,396.61 +5.30 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,039.50 +0.25 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,165.38 +0.49 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.218% +0.003

NYSE Volume 57,514,000
Nasdaq Volume 97,247,00

briefing.com

9:16AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. No real change in sentiment, which is to say buyers are showing some reluctance to commit to positions ahead of Cisco's report tonight and tomorrow's FOMC meeting... Cautious tone is an offshoot of a handful of probes into the business practices of some blue chips, however, the investigations so far appear to be company specific... Earnings of note for the most part remain mixed this morning, with retailers being a focal point

8:51AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5.

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Not much conviction in the futures market... Accordingly, look for the cash market to start the day on a relatively flat note with angst ahead of Cisco's earnings report after the bell acting as a restraint.

8:08AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. As was the case yesterday, futures market is lacking catalysts to incite buying interest... As such, there is a slightly negative bias this morning that should translate into a modestly lower open for the cash market... Reports of widening investigations surrounding Dow components Boeing (BA) and Merck (MRK) are acting as restraining factors

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates below resistance marked by June's high crossing at 1532.50. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 1532.50 would open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 1563 later this year. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1505.95 would signal that a double top with June's high has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 4.50 pts. at 1526.50 as of 5:56 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates above the previous contract high crossing at 1160.10. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and is rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of monthly fib resistance crossing at 1170.60 is the next upside target. Closes below broken resistance crossing at 1146.50 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was down 2.50 pts. at 1164 as of 5:58 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

13. 9:46 EST numbers and blather

(check out that NASDAQ spike)

Dow 10,401.63 +10.32 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,043.87 +4.62 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,165.67 +0.78 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.218% +0.003

NYSE Volume 94,308,000
Nasdaq Volume 144,589,000

9:40AM: Indices open up near unchanged, as futures had indicated...listless trend yesterday could continue today...market looks forward to Cisco earnings after the close today, and the Fed policy announcement tomorrow...Oil down another $1 to $48.09, could provide support...

[UpInArms]

12. Treasurys indecisive before sale of $15 billion in debt

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.4002365509-826206172&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys are mixed in early Tuesday trade in New York, as the market prepares to consume another $15 billion in new U.S. debt in a government auction later in the day. The 10-year note pulled 1/32 higher, to 100 9/32. Its yield ($TNX) stood at 4.22 percent.

[54anickel]

15. It'll be interesting to see who shows up at this auction. Yesterday's

3-year notes did pretty good. But that is in-line with the recent trend of the shorter term notes selling much better than long-term. Can't remember if 3-year notes fit into that "short-term" definition. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

56. here are some results for you, 54anickel

1:04pm 11/09/04 <$TNX> $15 BILLION IN 5-YEAR NOTES SOLD; 2.90 BID-TO-COVER

1:03pm 11/09/04 <$TNX> TREASURY AUCTIONS 5-YEAR NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 3.51%

[54anickel]

57. U.S. Treasuries Rise as Demand at Government Auction Increases

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=adkWOUe9FIO4&refer=us

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes rose as a measure of demand increased at the government's auction of $15 billion of five-year notes.

snip>

For every $1 sold, there were $2.90 worth of bids, compared with $2.32 at the Oct. 6 sale of five-year securities. For the past 12 sales, the bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing the volume of bids with the amount of securities offered for sale, averaged $2.49.

Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, bought 44.8 percent of the securities sold, up from 39.2 percent in October.

The government is selling $51 billion of debt this week in three-, five- and 10-year notes to finance a budget shortfall and repay maturing debt.

The Treasury auctioned $22 billion in three-year notes yesterday at a 3.09 percent yield. It will sell $14 billion in 10- year securities tomorrow. All but $3 billion of the money raised will be used to pay maturing securities.


edit to add:

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6759964

US Treasuries count on foreign demand at auction

snip>

The first leg of Treasury's quarterly refunding, a $22 billion three-year sale, drew strong demand particularly from indirect bidders such as foreign central banks. Traders were hoping Tuesday's five-year sale would meet a similarly warm reception, ensuring they would not be left holding the paper.

"We suspect central banks were big buyers and will remain so," said one trader at a U.S. primary dealer.

"There's a bundle of notes maturing next week and a big coupon payout and people figure the (central) banks will get much of that cash. If they don't want the dollar to weaken, and they don't, they'll have to roll that money over into new debt," he explained.

Some $48 billion in Treasury notes mature on Nov. 15 and the same day Treasury makes $20 billion in coupon payments. Much of the money should find its way to foreign central banks, who own over a quarter of all marketable Treasury debt.

Tuesday morning, the current five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) had eked out a 1/32 gain, leaving yields at 3.51 percent from 3.52 percent on Monday. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was flat at 4.94 percent.

snip>

The swift rise in short-term yields has seen the spread between them and 10-year yields narrow to 141 basis points, its lowest level since the emergency rate cuts of September 2001.

While foreign central banks might still be keen on Treasuries, fund managers looked to be of a different mind...

more...

[54anickel]

61. Thoughts on Interest Rates

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville110904.html

In his November Investment Outlook Bill Gross said: "My/our most certain idea, as expressed in previous Outlooks, is that real interest rates in the United States will have to be kept low, that the old Taylor rule <*> is out. Too much debt in a finance-based economy precludes raising interest rates like we have in the past and while that keeps the patient/economy breathing it leads to asset bubbles, potential inflation, and a declining currency over time."

Now, Mr Gross is the manager of the world's largest bond fund so when he makes a bold statement on interest rates we should certainly pay attention. However, is it likely, or even possible, that interest rates could remain low for a long time to come if we are correct in our assessment that the US has a major inflation problem?

In our opinion the answer is yes, emphasising that we are talking about low REAL interest rates and not low NOMINAL interest rates. The correct definition of the real interest rate is the nominal interest rate minus the EXPECTED inflation rate, so increases in nominal interest rates won't result in significantly higher real interest rates as long as inflation expectations are increasing at roughly the same pace.

In fact, when arguing the intermediate-term BULLISH case for the US$ in the 6th September Weekly Update we noted that it wasn't possible for us to be bullish on the dollar beyond the intermediate-term because "...the Fed's primary role is to perpetuate inflation and in order for the credit expansion to continue it will be necessary for real interest rates to remain low and for the yield-spread to remain wide. In other words, unless the Federal Reserve and the US Government are prepared to sit back and let the US experience 1-2 years of genuine deflation there will be a definite limit on the amount of monetary policy 'tightening' that will be attempted. And given that the US economy is already showing signs of weakness the aforementioned limit is probably not a great distance from where we are right now."

In other words, we agree with Bill Gross that the US economy is burdened with such a huge amount of debt that it could not sustain the level of REAL short-term interest rates that would typically be associated with a normal, healthy economy, with a ramification being a declining dollar over time.


more...

[UpInArms]

16. Report: U.S. Sept. wholesale inventories up 0.5%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.4167464352-826208370&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Wholesale inventories rose 0.5 percent in September, the slowest rise since April, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The rise was slightly less than the 0.7 percent increase forecast by economists polled by CBS MarketWatch. Wholesale sales rose 0.6 percent in the month. The inventory-to-sales ratio, and indication of demand, remained at 1.15 for the fourth consecutive month. That is slightly above April's record low of 1.12.

[UpInArms]

18. Dell to open new plant in North Carolina

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.4184658565-826208714&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Dell Inc. (DELL) said Tuesday that it will open a new manufacturing plant in North Carolina in 2005. The computer maker said the new plant will employ 700 workers in its first year and will expand to 1,500 workers within five years. The new facility will produce desktop computers for Dell customers in the East Coast.

Just so everyone doesn't think I only post bad news.

[UpInArms]

40. Honda to build new Ga. plant, expands Ohio, Ala. plants

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.4828227083-826217443&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Honda Motor Co. (HMC) said Tuesday that it plans to build a $100 million transmission plant in Tallapoosa, Ga. in 2006. The plant will employ 400 workers at full capacity. The automaker also announced its plans to expand its existing plants in Ohio and Alabama. In Ohio, Honda will invest $100 million and hire 100 people to expand the transmission plant. The company said the expansion at its engine plant in Alabama will cost $70 million and will create 100 new jobs.

Gee, jobs in 2006!

We'll be booming in no time!

[54anickel]

45. Honda must be looking forward to cheap labor in the US! *SNARF*

[54anickel]

21. Americans are taking on greater burdens

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9D8ED0F0%2DCFEA%2D4852%2D8FAC%2DD14B9861F518%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

It used to be that the biggest chance people took was in buying a home. Even then, the main risk associated with homeownership was keeping one's job.

snip>

Nowadays, home prices are rising sharply, but incomes are not, since the overall rate of inflation has slowed. With the ratio of home prices to incomes now at a record, more and more people have turned to adjustable rate mortgages in order to be able to buy a home. Some are even taking out interest-only loans.

This obviously transfers the risk from the lender to the borrower. And in a climate like the current one, where the Federal Reserve is raising short-term rates, the risk may be greater than some homeowners think. See related story on Fed.

Job security is not what it used to be, either. Most new jobs created these days are either temporary or part-time -- not the full-time permanent jobs that were de rigueur. This means they pay less and usually carry no fringe benefits like health care or a pension.

big snip>

The president believes that ownership brings security. But this assumes that people will be able to make the right health care and investment decisions -- something that remains to be seen.

[JNelson6563]

22. 10 yr. chart looks like earthquake reading

Tho' I see the 10 yr. is only .01 different than at open, the chart for it looks like the tape from one of those earthquake detector thing-a-ma-jigs.

The markets seem to be like Fallujah. Clash of forces.

Off topic to the SWT I'd like to say that it is a historic day when a band of "insurgents" can be so hard for the most powerful military machine in the history of mankind to crush. I'd also like to note it does give some credence to the gun-nuts who think we should all be armed. We'll be able to do the same thing as the Iraqi "insurgents" when China comes to takeover the US (when we default on our loan and they come for "collateral".)

Hope you all survived post-election stress disorder. :toast:

Julie

[54anickel]

24. JULIE!!! Hi, so glad to hear from you! You done us all proud with

your hard work in MI! Miss you here very much, but all worth it to see MI covered in blue. :toast: :loveya: :grouphug: :yourock:

[JNelson6563]

32. Thanks 54!

Seeing Michigan that lovely shade of blue was my one great consolation. My heart goes out to those who also worked very hard and saw their states go red. Ugh! How discouraging! I hope they all stay at it, we need 'em now more than ever!

I should be able to stop in more regularly. I have read at least some every day though! You guys/gals really kept it goin' and I was able to spread what you all posted and I'll be forever grateful!

Glad to be back! Thanks for leaving the light on! :toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

36. I am so proud of your work Julie

:yourock:

and we welcome you back!

:grouphug:

[ozymandius]

46. Good to see you back Julie!

Michigan is clearly one of the shining stars from election night. I thank you for contributing mightily to make it so. Just think of it - a formerly safe red area now glows blue!

Congratulations!

:toast::yourock::toast:

[llmart]

52. Thanks from another Michigan DU'er!

I also heard on some news today that Michigan picked up more Dem seats in the state legislature, so we are going to be solid blue from now on I hope.

PROUD TO BE FROM A BLUE STATE!

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. Sept. job turnover little changed

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.4373755324-826211213&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Job losses and new hiring were little changed in the United States in September, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Job openings at the end of the month totaled 3.235 million, little changed from 3.195 million at the end of August, representing 2.4 percent of jobs. Hires totaled 4.297 million in September, or 3.3 percent of jobs, down slightly from 4.375 million in August. Separations from work for whatever reason increased to 4.165 million, or 3.2 percent, from 4.134 million. Over the past 12 months, hires have averaged 4.3 million per month, while separations have averaged 4 million per month.

10:23am 11/09/04 U.S. SEPT. JOB TURNOVER LITTLE CHANGED

10:23am 11/09/04 U.S. SEPT. JOB OPENINGS 3.2 MLN, UNCHANGED FROM AUG.
10:23am 11/09/04 U.S. SEPT. HIRES 4.3 MLN VS. 4.4 MLN IN AUG.

10:23am 11/09/04 U.S. SEPT. JOB SEPARATIONS 4.2 MLN VS. 4.1 MLN IN AUG.

I guess since Nutting still has his job, things are "little changed" - looks like job openings have not improved, hires were less and separations were more. :shakesheadsadly:

[54anickel]

27. Informal Lenders in China Pose Risks to Banking System

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/09/business/worldbusiness/09yuan.html

WENZHOU, China, Nov. 3 - The Wenzhou "stir-fry" is not a dish you eat. But it is giving indigestion to Chinese regulators and could prove troublesome to many investors worldwide - from New York money managers, Pennsylvania steel workers and Midwestern farmers to miners in Australia.

Here in this freewheeling city at the forefront of capitalism in China, the dish is prepared when a group of wealthy friends pool millions of dollars worth of Chinese yuan and put it into a hot investment like Shanghai real estate, where it is stirred and flipped for a hefty profit.

The friends often lend each other large amounts on the strength of a handshake and a handwritten i.o.u. Both sides then go to an automated teller machine or bank branch to transfer the money, which is then withdrawn from the bank. Or sometimes they do it the old-fashioned way: exchanging burlap sacks stuffed with cash.

The worry for Chinese regulators is that everyone in China will start cooking the Wenzhou stir-fry and do it outside the banking system. In the last few months, borrowing and lending across the rest of China is looking more and more like Wenzhou's. The growth of this shadow banking system poses a stiff challenge to China's state-owned banks, already burdened with bad debt, and makes it harder for the nation's leaders to steer a fast-growing economy.

The problem starts with China's low interest rates. More and more families with savings have been snubbing 2 percent interest on bank deposits for the double-digit returns from lending large amounts on their own. They lend to real estate speculators or to small businesses without the political connections to obtain loans from the banks. Not only is the informal lending rate higher, but the income from that lending, because it is semilegal at best, is not taxed. For fear of shame, ostracism and the occasional threat from thugs, borrowers are more likely to pay back these loans than those from the big banks.

more...

[jamesinca]

28. Weak dollars and cents

Does anybody have a source or link where I could find out the U.S. trade with main land China (the one with the form of government that Reagan ended) and how much money we have borrowed or are owed by them. Also I need to know about the plummeting dollar and how that will effect and ruin Wal-Mart with their purchase volume from communist China.

[JNelson6563]

34. No link but...

loved this:

U.S. trade with main land China (the one with the form of government that Reagan ended)

Amen brother and don't you let 'em forget it! I will always preface "China" with "Communist". Everybody should.

Nice point James, good to see you in this neck of the woods.

Julie

[WhereIsMyFreedom]

55. You must mean Democracy

I generally think that Bush jr is the one that ended Democracy in this country, but I suppose I could see the argument that it was actually Reagan.

As for China, you're talking about the Democratically elected leaders from the Communist Party, right?

Sorry, I know this doesn't belong in this thread but I couldn't let the disinformation pass uncorrected.

[JNelson6563]

60. Nope, said what I meant

I generally think that Bush jr is the one that ended Democracy in this country, but I suppose I could see the argument that it was actually Reagan.

Feigning ignorance doesn't become you. It is usually helpful baiting technique by a certain political mindset....

As for China, you're talking about the Democratically elected leaders from the Communist Party, right?

Yes indeedy, just like the trained monkey is the Democratically elected leader of this country. Sure. You betcha.

Sorry, I know this doesn't belong in this thread but I couldn't let the disinformation pass uncorrected.

Sorry to have offended your sensibilities.

Let me try it this way: Who holds power in China? The Communists.

Now, feel better? 'K.

Julie

[UpInArms]

63. Trade (Imports, Exports and Trade Balance) with China

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

China and Walmart

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2003/oct2003/yuan-o13.shtml

The integration between US industry and China was highlighted in a report by the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing on September 25. Its survey showed that 75 percent of US companies operating in China made profit last year, with 42 percent reporting their profit margin in the country was higher than their global average. Seven US companies were among the top 50 exporters from China last year. US giant Wal-Mart, for example, exports nearly $12 billion in goods to the US from its Chinese operations—10 percent of the US trade deficit with China.

and then the question of how much does China hold of US Treasury Notes:

http://english.sohu.com/20040928/n222276095.shtml

At the end of 2000, China's foreign exchange reserve was US$165.6 billion. By the end of 2002, it rocketed to US$286.4 billion before it soared to US$403.3 billion by the end of 2003. By the end of June this year, the reserve was registered at a staggering US$470.6 billion.

　　About two thirds of the reserve is dominated by the US dollar. As the dollar goes down, China will suffer great financial losses.

　　Experts estimate that the recent US dollar devaluation has caused more than US$10 billion to be wiped from the foreign exchange reserve.

　　If the so-called US dollar crisis happens, China will suffer further loss.

[UpInArms]

31. 10:54 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,388.28 -3.03 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,036.88 -2.37 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,164.46 -0.43 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.210% -0.005

NYSE Volume 404,189,000
Nasdaq Volume 494,440,000

10:30AM: Indices ease, but hold in positive ground...just holding the gains of recent weeks is positive, as the absence of significant profit-taking is noteworthy...the decline in oil prices is the most supportive factor today, as the December crude contract is down $1.19 to $47.90...there is an inventory report tomorrow, and talk is that a build in inventories could lead to a more significant price drop...NYSE Adv/Dec 1691/1133, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1379/1214

10:00AM: Indices strengthen...weakness in oil is probably largest factor...Nasdaq looking for ninth straight up day in a row...Marsh & McLennan (MMC 26.94 -0.42) a notable loser today after announcing earnings below expectations and plans to lay off 3,000...NYSE Adv/Dec 1146/1069, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1082/1188

[54anickel]

43. Buck's headed back south from its open

Last trade 84.01 Change -0.08 (-0.10%)

Settle 84.09 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.09 Previous Close 84.09

High 84.29 Low 83.98

Volume 1,738

[ozymandius]

47. Watch out! The Loonie graph could poke an eye out. n/t

[UpInArms]

38. International Paper to sell (1.1 million acres) Maine, N.H.land for $250M

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.4728906597-826216085&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- International Paper (IP) said Tuesday that it is selling 1.1 million acres of forestland in Maine and New Hampshire to GMO Renewable Resources LLC for $250 million. The deal is expected to close by the first-quarter of 2005. The two companies also agreed to a long-term wood fiber supply deal that would supply fiber to International Paper's mills in Maine and a forest management services contract.

so what is GMO Renewable Resources LLC?

http://www.gmo.com/mygmoasps/gmo_main.asp?View=2&Office=Boston

1977



Jeremy Grantham, Dick Mayo, Eyk Van Otterloo and King Durant founded Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. Investment philosophy: conservative, value-orientation. First investment strategy: U.S. Active focusing on large and small cap stocks.


1981

International Active division launched with a focus on large cap international equities.


1982

Quantitative division launched. U.S. Core strategy is one of the earliest quantitative strategies in the industry.


1985

GMO is industry pioneer in offering investment capabilities through institutional mutual funds.


1986

Japanese market became increasingly expensive. GMO decreased Japanese exposure in international portfolios. GMO launched Japanese strategy to facilitate clients' ability to alter exposure to Japan.


1987

GMO Woolley founded in London to augment international research and investment management capabilities. Today over $2 billion is managed in our London office using a blend of fundamental and quantitative disciplines.


1988




GMO embarked on first asset allocation strategy. GMO's research determined that the U.S. growth equity market is highly undervalued and therefore launched the Growth Fund. Clients were encouraged to allocate domestic equities into the GMO Growth Fund. In 1990, after a 15% appreciation in the U.S. growth equity market, GMO encouraged clients to shift assets out of the GMO Growth Fund.

...more...

[54anickel]

42. The new Republican reality: no policy is too right-wing - ARRRGH!

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=580547

Where should the United States invade next? Iran, Syria, or Cuba? Will George Bush merely slash taxes on the rich even further in his second term, or will he have the courage to abolish income tax altogether? Will gay marriage simply be outlawed state by state, or will a much-threatened constitutional amendment come into being?

These might once have been idle questions for conservative Washington think-tanks. But now, with President Bush safely re-elected for another four years and increased Republican majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, such radical right-wing notions are no longer pipedreams. They are the active stuff of policy discussion.

Grass-roots conservatives, many of them religious fundamentalists who paved the way for President Bush's victory in the suburbs and the rural heartland, are positively salivating at the prospect of having their efforts rewarded.

"I don't know if we're going to abolish the prescription drug benefit , but we'd like to. It's just an expansion of government," the Republican strategist and direct-mail guru Richard Viguerie said over the weekend. "We'd like to see oil and gas exploration increased in the continental United States. We want a constitutional amendment on marriage. We want the culture of life expanded."

SNIP>

Some of the new faces in the Senate gave a flavour of the kind of politics we can expect out of Washington in the next political cycle. Tom Coburn, newly elected Senator from Oklahoma, is on record saying he thinks doctors who perform abortions should be executed. (So much for the "culture of life" behind the anti-abortion movement.) Jim DeMint of South Carolina said during his campaign that homosexuals and unmarried pregnant women should not be allowed to teach in public schools.

Democrats and many Independents are appalled at the prospects ahead. Since moderation seems unlikely in the immediate future, some of them are left hoping the Republicans will overreach so drastically that it will create a large political backlash.

much, much more...

[54anickel]

44. 11.52 pre-lunch check-in

Dow 10,369.40 -21.91 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,035.00 -4.25 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,162.69 -2.20 (-0.19%)
10-yr Bond 4.206% -0.009
30-yr Bond 4.930% +0.000
NYSE Volume 588,090,000
Nasdaq Volume 714,136,000

11:30AM: The holding pattern continues...bonds are up slightly ahead of the Fed announcement tomorrow...gold is up another $0.90 to $433.40 on the December contract...oil is down $1.24...stock market volume is on the light side...advancers are running about even with declining issues...NYSE Adv/Dec 1596/1452, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1336/1453

11:00AM: Indices remain in tight ranges in stable trade...the talk is already mostly about the Fed meeting tomorrow even though a 1/4% hike in the fed funds target to 2% in fully expected...housing and health care sectors are doing well, while defense and airlines are also up...there are very few weak sectors, but the SOX semiconductor index is down 0.8%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1583/1375, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1330/1388

10:30AM: Indices ease, but hold in positive ground...just holding the gains of recent weeks is positive, as the absence of significant profit-taking is noteworthy...the decline in oil prices is the most supportive factor today, as the December crude contract is down $1.19 to $47.90...there is an inventory report tomorrow, and talk is that a build in inventories could lead to a more significant price drop...NYSE Adv/Dec 1691/1133, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1379/1214

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1663 (50%) 1354 (45%)
Declines 1439 (43%) 1491 (49%)
Unchanged 172 (5%) 161 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 275 (51%) 236 (35%)
Down Vol* 246 (46%) 417 (62%)
Unch. Vol* 8 (1%) 12 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 164 102
New Lo's 6 24

[UpInArms]

50. a side of noon blather

12:00PM: It has been a fairly uneventful morning...stock futures indicated a slightly lower open on modest profit-taking...stocks opened higher, however, as oil prices continued to slide...that didn't prove of lasting support as the indices have drifted lower through the morning...there is no direct news to account for this, so it will mostly be called profit-taking, which makes sense after the recent strong gains...the only earnings report of note was from Marsh & McLennan (MMC ) which reported below Wall Street estimates and announced it will lay off 3,000...

the market is now focused on the Cisco earnings report after the close today, and the Fed policy announcement tomorrow...some momentum plays such as Research in Motion (RIMM 73.58 -4.38) and Taser (TASR 50.35 -3.77) are active, and lower...oil is down $1.04 to $48.05 on the December futures contract...gold is up over $2...bonds are up slightly...stock volume is moderate...NYSE Adv/Dec 1667/1441, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1369/1508

[UpInArms]

49. Gold tops $436, set for highest close since 1988

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.4995763426-826219584&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures topped $436 an ounce in New York and were set to close at a fresh 16-year high, lifted by some weakness in the dollar against the euro as well tensions in the Middle East. December gold is up $2.90 at $436.30 an ounce. "U.S. forces in Fallujah meeting stiff resistance as they head towards the center of the city, and Palestinian officials declaring Yasser Arafat has only hours to live the temperature of the Middle-Eastern boiling pot," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

[54anickel]

54. Bush worries start rush for gold (Heh-heh-heh)

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/business/articles/timid84453?source=

GOLD is set to test the key $450 barrier in the coming weeks as concerns over the weak US dollar following last week's re-election of President Bush send investors rushing for the safe-haven metal.

Analysts believe the psychological mark is well within reach after seeing the dollar slump to a record low against the euro. Mine production is also down this year as demand climbs.

Gold hit $435 an ounce in Asia yesterday, its highest since 1988 when $450 was last breached. The recent spurt has taken the average gold price this year to $403.62, up almost 13% on a year ago.

Simon Village, managing director of London-listed Gold Bullion Securities, said: 'Since the US election, traders are looking at the fundamentals and have put the bet back on, long on gold, short on the dollar. I believe we will hit $450 by the end of the year. We could be there in two to three weeks.'

Concerns over the US dollar have resurfaced since Bush's re-election last Wednesday. Analysts believe he will do little to correct America's vast budget and current account deficits.

more...

[UpInArms]

51. Sallie Mae chairman sells $14.7 million in stock

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38300.5044042245-826220376&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The chairman and CEO of SLM Corp. (SLM) , otherwise known as Sallie Mae, sold 300,000 shares of the company's stock on the open market, according to a statement Tuesday. The shares sold by Albert Lord carry a market value of about $14.7 million and represent about 16 percent of his total holdings. The company said the action was taken to provide cash for a real estate transaction and year-end income taxes. The sale represents Lord's first since July 2001, when he sold nearly 538,000 shares, according to information from Thomson Financial.

only 16% of his holdings and he has had more then 838,000 shares?!?

[54anickel]

53. Ah yes, the wonderful Sallie Mae. I posted something a while back,

these are no longer considered GSE, there's no subsidy to defer the interest and something about some crooked little shenanigans a while back. Can't remember the details now. When I got my student loan paperwork I felt rather sick to my stomach finding it was going to be through Sallie Mae.

[54anickel]

58. 2:38 update

Dow 10,419.84 +28.53 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,049.15 +9.90 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,167.85 +2.96 (+0.25%)
10-yr Bond 4.214% -0.001
30-yr Bond 4.937% +0.007
NYSE Volume 1,037,877,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,223,699,000

2:30PM: Market gets a lift from continued sharp decline in oil prices...the December crude contract is now down $1.64 to $47.40...heating oil and natural gas are also off sharply...insurance company Cigna (CI 69.66 +3.01) is up sharply after an upgrade from JP Morgan...NYSE Adv/Dec 1835/1402, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1620/1376
2:00PM: Oil prices are dropping further...the December crude oil contract is now down $1.34 to $47.75...on the up side, there was a lot of understandable talk about the inflationary impacts...natural gas prices are also down about 1.5% today...even flat energy prices produce no inflation, so a continued downtrend could really bring down the total inflation rate in the months ahead...gold is still up almost $3, however...NYSE Adv/Dec 1738/1491, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1528/1442

1:30PM: Showing strength in a mixed market are health insurance (renewed assurance that Wellpoint's $16.4 bln merger with Anthem will be approved), airlines (oil is down 2.4%) and housing (luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers' reported 62% year-over-year growth in Q4 revenues)... Even Lennar (LEN 44.34 +0.79), which warned Wall Street last week about housing delays due to slowing demand in Southern California and Las Vegas, is gaining ground... The benchmark 10-year note (+5/32, yielding 4.19%) continues to rally ahead of tomorrow's much anticipated rate hike by the FOMC...NYSE Adv/Dec 1721/1496, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1472/1479

[54anickel]

62. Closing time

Dow 10,386.37 -4.94 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,043.33 +4.08 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,164.08 -0.81 (-0.07%)
10-yr Bond 4.218% +0.003
30-yr Bond 4.939% +0.009
NYSE Volume 1,455,522,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,714,513,000

Close: There was a little more action today than yesterday, but the term "listless" still comes to mind...stocks traded in a narrow range in the morning and hit mid-day slightly lower on the day...then oil prices started to decline significantly, and stocks got a boost...the December crude futures contract ended down $1.72 at $47.37...but stocks weren't able to hold the early afternoon gains, and the indices slipped back to near unchanged...still, the Nasdaq managed to post its seventh straight increase...there wasn't much corporate news today...
Marsh & McLennan (MMC 26.86 -0.50) had a poor earnings report and announced layoffs...Merck (MRK 26.01 -0.56) said the Department of Justice subpoenaed the company over Vioxx...but most of the focus is on the Cisco earnings report due after the close today and the Fed's policy announcement tomorrow...volume was moderate...NYSE Adv/Dec 1911/1397, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1652/1437

3:25PM: Indices pull back to near unchanged...volume is light...both may be related to a cautious approach ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow...healthcare, health provider, housing, defense and airline are the top performing groups...NYSE Adv/Dec 1967/1316, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1663/1388

3:00PM: Positive tone continues as all eyes turn to Cisco after the close...the company is expected to report earnings of $0.21 a share, up 24% from the year-ago $0.17 on a per share basis...however, the company has beaten estimates nine of the past ten reports, and beat by a penny each of the past three times...revenue is expected to come in about $6.0 billion, up 28% from $4.7 billion in the same quarter last year...NYSE Adv/Dec 1964/1323, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1696/1323

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1928 (55%) 1736 (53%)
Declines 1383 (39%) 1353 (41%)
Unchanged 156 (4%) 163 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 778 (53%) 792 (46%)
Down Vol* 648 (44%) 880 (51%)
Unch. Vol* 30 (2%) 40 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 248 165
New Lo's 9 33


And the buck's back up for the day -

Last trade 84.22 Change +0.09 (+0.11%)

Settle 84.29 Settle Time 15:38

Open 84.09 Previous Close 84.09

High 84.29 Low 83.98

Volume 1,738

[Pallas180]

64. Do ya think the average person should cash out $ & buy gold now? remember

Jackie Kenedy made her fortune, actually, when she bought gold and it went to $800...

Little late for us, but still the chance of doubling -

or how do you cash out dollars and buy Euros?