Fed hints at jobless recovery

[UpInArms]

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id=8FB1F890-F87A-495D-869F-A585FE4ECDAB

WASHINGTON - The U.S. Federal Reserve has joined economists in cautiously suggesting the economy is showing signs of improvement even though it is not producing jobs.

In its "beige book" survey, the Fed said yesterday the economy "continued to improve" over the summer with 11 of the Fed's 12 regional districts reporting improved business activity.

<snip>

The Fed's review follows recent economic data and views from economists that the U.S. economy is improving, with growth expected to hit a high of 5% this quarter, up from 3.1% during the second quarter and 1.4% during the first three months of the year.

...more...

blah, blah, blah, blah -- but no jobs are resulting from the "improved economy" :(

[Noordam]

1. And more people losing their jobs every day

* is in trouble in OHIO over jobs.

[salin]

18. repeat: not jobless, JobLOSS recovery...

make that a mantra - its one that can stick.

[retread]

26. I use it every day!

*

[htuttle]

2. A 'Jobless Recovery' is like a wish sandwich.

You have TWO slices of bread, and you WISH you had some meat.

Bow, bow, baw...

[Enraged_Ape]

3. Here's hoping the Shrub has a jobless Election Day in 2004.

I am so sick of the phrase "jobless recovery", a term by and for the mentally retarded. If anyone is actually fooled by "jobless recovery", I want to know who, because I know I can make a buttload of money off of them.

[treepig]

4. ok, let's do the math

from http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/default.asp?doctype=-1&siteid=mktw

8:31am 09/04/03 U.S. Q2 productivity revised to 6.8% By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Productivity in the U.S. non-farm business sector soared at an annual rate of 6.8 percent in the second quarter, the Labor Department estimated Thursday. A month ago, the department estimated productivity growth at 5.7 percent.

from your link growth expected to hit a high of 5% this quarter.

does it make sense to extrapolate that since productivity is growing at 6.8% and the economy at 5.0% - that portends a job loss of 1.8%?

if productivity is growing at 6.8%, won't the economy have to growth faster than 6.8% to generate new jobs?

on edit, these questions are somewhat rhetorical, but if there's anyone with real knowledge on this subject, i'd greatly appreciate the input.

[UpInArms]

6. well, I am no economist

but I see this as the people that are still working are working in a "fear environment" and work harder and thus "productivity" increases so that their heads will not be put on the chopping block - this, in turn, drives profits up for the corporations as they have lower payroll costs - if anyone starts to slack off, all they have to do is layoff a few more people to drive the "productivity" level back up - as the fear levels get higher and higher -

the only thing wrong with this scenario (well, maybe not the only thing) is that as more and more people are laid off, fewer people have money to actually buy the products or services offered by those corporations, so sales will eventually decrease, inventories will rise and ... poof!

game over

[Enraged_Ape]

7. Well, I'm no economist either

But I took a couple of classes in college, and I'd say you pretty much nailed it, UpInArms.

I just love how the finance media plays up the increased productivity like it's a sign that things are going great. When the few people that will still have jobs in this country are working 20 hours a day, seven days a week, our productivity should just approach that of Honduras, Taiwan, or any other sweatshop nation of today.

[UpInArms]

9. from Yahoo Briefing this morning

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Q2 productivity was revised to a much higher 6.8% (consensus of 6.4%) from an original reading of 5.7% despite a 2.8% fall in unit labor costs...

[screembloodymurder]

27. Actually the productivity increase is a direct result

of shipping our jobs overseas. Lower cost per unit of production = productivity gain.

[Enraged_Ape]

30. Yes, and when fearful Americans work 60-plus-hour weeks...

with NO overtime and fewer benefits in order to hold onto their precious jobs, units of production increase at the same (or lower) cost, which also results in a lower cost per unit of production or productivity gain.

Two sides of the same bent, tarnished coin.

[ozone_man]

14. Also, the personal consumption will fall off greatly, when

refinance money runs out and credit card debt is due. The debt bomb will push us into a deep recession or depression (IMO) that will make the one that was declared to over in 2001 look insignificant.

[kysrsoze]

22. Exactly - big trouble when housing/mortgages go, then add the reduction

in productivity as the remaining workers get burned out, and you'll have one heck of a mess. It's a Jobloss Recovery Bubble. Everyone at my company is so ticked off, burned out and generally lethargic, it seems most of the management workers in our division have adopted the "don't care anymore" attitude. You can't blame them.

[BiggJawn]

15. Sounds like my "Stick Thermal Theory"

Which has been explained in other threads...

[LoneStarLiberal]

13. Productivity Increased in Q2 Precisely Because of Unemp

Productivity increased in Q2 because companies were operating on trimmed down payrolls from their layoffs. That's why we are seeing a divergence between economic productivity and employment; the decrease in employment is precisely one of the components that is fueling the increase in productivity at this time.

[Snellius]

5. Not a "jobless" recovery. A "jobLOSS" recovery.

The economy is not just not creating jobs. It is LOSING jobs at a steady rate.

[farmbo]

8. "Jobless Recovery" = Rovian spin for "Double Dip Bush Recession"

EOM

[Nottingham]

10. Someone is really Lying up a storm here! Jobless=Depression

If this country keeps losing Jobs this economy is going into the toilet no matter how cheap money is! :bounce:

[bleedingheart]

12. that's what I am starting to think...

[Iverson]

11. successful therapy, but the patient died

Note how "the economy" has less and less direct relevance to people. Thus, terms like jobless recovery get uttered with a straight face.

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Depends on who "the patient" is

So long as "the economy" produces more wealth for the wealthy, the policy (i.e. "surgery") is successful.

[VeniceDude]

16. Recent GDP Growth ...

Is mostly attributed to the massive increase in military spending.

I believe the most recent numbers say Smirks adventures account for nearly half.

Imagine if our tax dollars went into our infastructure rather than occupation. Then we'd have some job growth. Til then we'll have to depend on the shareholders of the Military Industrial establishment to hire on some more gardeners and nannies.

[newyawker99]

25. Hi VeniceDude!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[PurityOfEssence]

17. The Tone Deaf Administration: they just don't get it, do they?

More than anything else, they're so wrapped up with their own selfishness (Republicanism) that they just don't understand. When Junior is reneging on treaties or whatever for the "good of America" he really believes it; it's true: to him, America is the few super-rich entitled ones. Workers don't really exist (good thing, too, because jobs don't...) in his world.

So if stocks are up, it's a victory. To most people, jobs are the ONLY thing. Sure, they may own some stock, but their paychech is their raison d'etre.

[ProfessorGAC]

19. What They Call "Improved" Fails Statistical Muster

They fall on standard definitions of recession, recovery, boom, etc. for the parameters of interest.

Unfortunately, that would make them wrong. Economic health needs to be measured in a statistically valid way, which means that this recession is NOT over. There is no recovery. All the fiscal manipulations of the Bushites have failed.

They can pretend to not know what's going on because it doesn't fit their definitions. Rather, than should consider revising their definitions of economic health. But, of course, that would be too logical.
The Professor

[nolabels]

21. Jobless recovery is Bullshit, US has plenty of Jobs waiting for it's......

citizens. I hear advertisements all the time for new recruits. The Multinational Corporations must now figure they have a good thing in a US garrison state and are anteing up a little into the pot to keep it going



http://militaryclothing.com/IBS/SimpleCat/Product/asp/product-id/526525.html


http://www.antiwar.com/
http://www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/news/local/6681799.htm
Posted on Wed, Sep. 03, 2003

Troops streaming to Iraq, Kuwait from Fort Bragg
Associated Press

FORT BRAGG, N.C. - Troops and equipment from the 82nd Airborne Division have streamed out of North Carolina for weeks as the division gets some 5,000 soldiers in place for its second deployment to Iraq.

The division held a media availability Wednesday for the departure of about 200 soldiers who were to leave from Pope Air Force Base. About 1,000 soldiers were leaving during the day, said division spokesman Capt. Jimmy Cummings.

"We've had troops and equipment flowing the past two to three weeks," Cummings said.

About 5,000 soldiers, including a combat brigade and a headquarters unit for the division commander, are being sent to Iraq for a six-month deployment
(snip)

[kysrsoze]

23. That was very funny, thanks.

It seemed so obvious after you said it. I'm still laughing about it. Thanks again.

[damnraddem]

24. The Fed 'hints'?

Listen up, Fed, the economy has been SHOUTING at you about a jobless 'recovery.'

And your definitions stink, becuase you define it as a 'recovery' when there is no recovery of jobs.

[Forkboy]

28. My local paper said today

that unemployment in my area is at 8.4%

Some recovery.

[JPace]

29. Jobless Recovery.....

No opportunity means people will be forced
to lower their standard of living and accept
menial jobs as a way of life.

Young people will be forced to join the
military as it will be all they can do
other than work for fast food places.
This way the AWOL regime gets all the
voluntary soldiers they need to continue
to bully the world and keep big business
safe overseas.

[snippy]

31. Republican presidents are always bad for job creation.

But Whistle Ass is much worse than the average republican.

Since the 1920's, the annual rate of job creation under republican presidents has always been lower than under democratic presidents. Since the depression, the best rate of job growth under a republican was 2.2% per year during Nixon's time in office. The worst rate of job growth under a democrat was 2.3% per year during Kennedy's time in office. Bush has a -0.7% annual rate which is the first negative number since the depression.

Democrats should be hammering this point every day.