STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 15 October

[ozymandius]

Friday October 15, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 97
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 18
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 308 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 362 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1058
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 14, 2004

Dow... 9,894.45 -107.88 (-1.08%)
Nasdaq... 1,903.02 -17.51 (-0.91%)
S&P 500... 1,103.29 -10.36 (-0.93%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.02% -0.06 (-1.54%)
Gold future... 419.50 +4.90 (+1.17%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.48 Change -0.07 (-0.08%)

Gold sits tight in Europe awaiting data, Greenspan

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH94027_2004-10-15_10-48-27_L15519013

LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Gold traded in tight ranges in Europe on Friday morning, although a firm bias was maintained ahead of several U.S. data.

Markets were also watching for a speech on Friday from Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan that might offer clues on the impact of high oil prices on the world's biggest economy.

Spot gold <XAU=> stood at $417.50/418.25 by 1024 GMT, compared with $417.85/418.60.

"I suspect the market will be very quiet until the U.S. figures come out and then it will react accordingly. If things go up there's strong resistance in the mid $420's and support at $414," one dealer said.

The dollar steadied broadly on Friday after a swelling U.S. trade deficit and steep oil prices pushed it lower in the previous session

U.S. retail sales numbers due at 1230 GMT are expected to show a rise of 0.7 percent in September after a 0.3 percent decline in August.

...more...

GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil, economic growth worries grip investors

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH93114_2004-10-15_09-54-37_L15406987

LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Questions about the sustainability of global economic growth held many markets hostage on Friday as crude oil prices bumped close to $55 a barrel and investors awaited a raft of U.S. data.

European and Japanese stocks fell on worries about the impact of pricey oil. Currency amd bond price moves were limited by the upcoming data and anticipation of a speech on oil later in the day by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Wall Street looks set to open higher, based on stock index futures, after falling around 1 percent on Thursday.

Investors were looking particularly for signs of whether rising fuel costs were affecting consumer sentiment, spending and industrial production.

U.S. retail sales number were expected to show a rise of 0.7 percent in September after a 0.3 percent decline in August. September industrial production was seen rising 0.3 percent and the University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment index was seen easing to 94.0 from 94.2.

Greenspan was to speak on oil at 1600 GMT.

The soaring price of oil has undermined investors' sentiment, and brought with it fears of inflation and lower corporate profits.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

19. dollar not liking reports

Last trade 87.15 Change -0.40 (-0.46%)

Settle 87.55 Settle Time 23:35

Open 87.58 Previous Close 87.55

High 87.85 Low 87.09

Last tick: 2004-10-15 08:42:10 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

44. dollar still dropping (86.96)

Last trade 86.96 Change -0.59 (-0.67%)

[54anickel]

46. YIKES! n/t

[UpInArms]

2. Today's Reports

Oct 15 8:30 AM
Business Inventories Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.7%
market anticipates 0.6%
last report 0.9%
revised -

Oct 15 8:30 AM
Core PPI Sep
report -
briefing com anticipates 0.2%
market anticipates 0.2%
last report -0.1%
revised -

Oct 15 8:30 AM
NY Empire State Index Oct
report -
briefing.com anticipates 23.0
market anticipates 25.0
last report 28.3
revised -

Oct 15 8:30 AM
PPI Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates -0.1%
market anticipates 0.1%
last report -0.1%
revised -

Oct 15 8:30 AM
Retail Sales Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.7%
market anticipates 0.7%
last report -0.3%
revised -

Oct 15 8:30 AM
Retail Sales ex-auto Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.4%
market anticipates 0.3%
last report 0.2%
revised -

Oct 15 9:15 AM
Capacity Utilization Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 77.6%
market anticipates 77.5%
last report 77.3%
revised -

Oct 15 9:15 AM
Industrial Production Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.5%
market anticipates 0.3%
last report 0.1%
revised -

Oct 15 9:45 AM
Mich Sentiment-Prel Oct
report -
briefing.com anticipates 95.5
market anticipates 94.0
last report 94.2
revised -

Oct 15 2:00 PM
Treasury Budget Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates $22.0B
market anticipates $22.0B
last report $26.3B
revised -

[UpInArms]

8. reports coming in

8:29am 10/15/04 U.S. SEPT. PPI UP 0.1%

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. OCT. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 17.4 VS REV 27.3 IN SEPT.

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. SEPT. RETAIL SALES UP 1.5% VS. 0.7% EXPECTED

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. SEPT RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 0.6% V 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. SEPT. CORE PPI UP 0.3%, LARGEST RISE SINCE JUNE

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. AUG. RETAIL SALES REVISED TO -0.2% FROM -0.3%

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. SEPT. AUTO SALES UP 4.2%, MOST SINCE OCT. 2001

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. OCT. EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX RECORD 59.2

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. Sept. PPI up 0.1%, core rate up 0.3% - Corbett B. Daly

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. SEPT. AUTO SALES UP 4.2%, MOST SINCE OCT. 2001

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 7.7% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30am 10/15/04 U.S. SEPT. GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE SALES UP 1.1

U.S. Oct. Empire State index falls to 17.4

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38275.354375-823647931&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The Empire State manufacturing index fell to 17.4 in October from a revised 27.3 in September, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Friday. The drop was larger than expected. Economists had expected the index to fall to 24.9 in October from the initial estimate of 28.3. The prices paid index rose to a record 59.2 in October from 52.0 in the previous month.

U.S. Sept. retail sales jump 1.5%, double expectations

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38275.3544328704-823647939&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. retail sales jumped 1.5 percent in September as auto sales recorded the fastest increases since October 2001, the Commerce Department said Friday. Seasonally adjusted retail sales grew twice as fast as the 0.7 percent expected by Wall Street economists. Excluding the 4.2 percent rise in auto sales, retail sales improved by 0.6 percent in September, double the expectations on Wall Street. Sales in July and August were revised slightly higher.

U.S. Sept. PPI up 0.1%, core rate up 0.3%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BF437A4BC-B519-43D1-8382-C218A785AC1F%7D&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Prices of U.S. wholesale goods and services rose 0.1 percent in September, the Labor Department said Friday. The core producer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy goods, rose 0.3 percent. Economists had been expecting the PPI to increase 0.1percent and the core PPI to rise 0.2 percent, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. The headline PPI has risen 3.3 percent in the past twelve months, compared with a 3.4 percent gain in the year ended in August. The core PPI has risen 1.9 percent in the past year.

[UpInArms]

21. more reports

(also - that inventories report is due at 10:00 EST, not 8:30 EST)

9:15am 10/15/04 U.S. SEPT. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 0.1% VS 0.2 EST.

9:15am 10/15/04 U.S. SEPT. CAPACITY UTILIZATION STEADY AT 77.2 VS AUG.

9:15am 10/15/04 U.S. AUG INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT REV DOWN 0.1% VS UP 0.1 PREV

9:15am 10/15/04 FED SAYS HURRICANES TRIMMED PRODUCTION IN SEPT.

U.S. Sept. industrial production up 0.1%

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. industrial production rose 0.1 percent in September, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Capacity utilization held steady at 77.2 percent. Economists were expecting production to rise 0.2 percent and capacity utilization to increase to 77.4 percent. Industrial production in August was revised to a drop of 0.1 percent compared with the initial estimate of a 0.1 percent increase. The spate of hurricanes restrained production in September, the Fed said. The central bank estimated the hurricanes cut 0.3 percentage point from production in the month.

[UpInArms]

24. UMich Sentiment down to 87.5 (from 94.2)

9:50am 10/15/04 U.S. OCT. UMICH CONSUMER INDEX 87.5 VS. 94.2 SEPT.

[UpInArms]

30. more detail from the UMich report

9:55am 10/15/04 U.S. OCT. UMICH CURRENT CONDITIONS 99.6 VS. 103.7

9:54am 10/15/04 U.S. OCT. UMICH EXPECTIONS INDEX 79.6 VS. 88.0 SEPT.

[UpInArms]

33. U.S. consumer sentiment sinks in Oct.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B223E6AEC%2D2008%2D43E7%2DB18A%2D6638B93E3AE9%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest levels in 18 months in early October, with attitudes about the current economic condition falling to the lowest point of the year.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index sank to 87.5 in early October from 94.2 in September. Economists were expecting a slight drop to about 93.9.

It's the lowest sentiment index since April 2003, when American troops were entering Baghdad for the first time.

The current conditions index dropped to 99.6 in early October from 103.7, the lowest since December.

The expectations index fell to 79.6 from 88.0, also the lowest since April 2003.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. U.S. Aug. business inventories up 0.7% as expected

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38275.4171412037-823655751&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Inventories at U.S. businesses rose 0.7 percent in August, in line with expectations and at the same pace as the 0.7 percent increase in sales, the Commerce Department said Friday. The inventory-to-sales ratio, an indication of demand, fell to 1.31 in August from 1.32 in July. Economists had been expecting the nation's inventories to rise 0.7 percent in August, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Inventories increased a revised 1 percent in July, up from the 0.9 percent originally estimated.

Where's Frodo to tell how good increased inventories are?

How many months of increases has this been now? Seems like too darn many :(

[UpInArms]

3. As U.S. Debt Ceiling Is Reached, Bush Administration Seeks to Raise It Onc

As U.S. Debt Ceiling Is Reached, Bush Administration Seeks to Raise It Once Again

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/15/politics/15debt.html

WASHINGTON, Oct. 14 - Less than a day after President Bush implied that Senator John Kerry lacked "fiscal sanity," the Bush administration said on Thursday that the federal government had hit the debt ceiling set by Congress and would have to borrow from the civil service retirement system until after the elections.

<snip>

Since Mr. Bush took office in January 2001, the federal debt has increased about 40 percent, or $2.1 trillion, to $7.4 trillion. Congress has raised the debt ceiling three times in three years, raising it most recently by $984 billion in May 2003.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary John W. Snow said that the federal government was about to breach the limit again and would be able to keep operating only if it started tapping money intended for the civil service retirement fund, the pension system for federal workers.

<snip>

Senate Republicans tried to insert an increase in borrowing authority into a military spending bill this summer, but were blocked by Democrats and a handful of Republican lawmakers who sought tougher restrictions on spending increases and tax cuts. As the election season moved into the final phase, Congressional leaders tacitly agreed to address the issue, along with about 10 unfinished spending bills, in a session after the November elections.

...more...

[Media_Lies_Daily]

13. Here's a good article on raising the debt ceiling: Clinton vs Chimp....

<http://blog.mmadsen.org/2004/06/raising_the_deb.html>

Excerpt:

Thus, the debt was raised $1.539 trillion over 8 years of Democratic leadership, an average of $192 billion per year. In only 3.5 years in office, George W. Bush, the debt has risen $1.491 trillion, an average of $426 billion per year. Debt is accumulating 2.2 times faster under Bush than under Clinton. Naturally, two wars have a strong effect, but the single largest factor in spiraling debt are budget deficits due to unwise tax cuts.

At the current rate of growth, the national debt would hit $10 trillion by the end of 2010.

So much for Republicans being the party of fiscal conservatism.


MY NOTE: If the current request of $690 billion is acted upon, the debt ceiling will be set at $8.1 trillion. That will be an increase of $2.3 billion to the debt ceiling during the four years of NeoCon rule.

[UpInArms]

4. Sun 'scorches' Wall Street

http://news.zdnet.co.uk/business/0,39020645,39170357,00.htm

Sun's Q3 performance was better than had been predicted by analysts - ignoring the cash spent paying off Kodak - though it sacked 200 more staff than had been originally planned

Sun Microsystems beat analyst targets for its most recent quarter, but revenue was lighter than expected and the company made more layoffs than it had previously announced.

Including an $82m charge relating to the settlement of a Kodak patent lawsuit and other charges, Sun had a loss of $174m, or five cents per share, for the fiscal first quarter ended 26 September.

Excluding those items, however, the server and software company reported a profit of $13m, or break-even earnings per share. That compares with an average of a loss of 3 cents expected by analysts polled by Thomson First Call.

...more...

so they axed 3,500 employees in the process, who cares!

[UpInArms]

5. Marsh Used `Wholly Fictitious' Bids, Spitzer Says

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aFgQ9Z6oPaE8&refer=home

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- When Greenville County in South Carolina borrowed $800 million two years ago to expand its public schools, Marsh & McLennan Cos. provided three bidders to insure the bond sale.

Unbeknownst to the school system, two of the offers were genuine and the third was ``wholly fictitious,'' according to a suit filed yesterday by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. The winner, Zurich Financial Services AG, landed the job because Marsh expected the insurer to pay a lucrative fee.

The suit says Marsh, the world's No. 1 insurance broker, was so intent on winning fees it devised a phony bidding system to make customers believe insurers were competing for business. Spitzer's suit includes dozens of Marsh e-mails he calls ``overwhelming evidence'' that the winner was predetermined by Marsh.

``This is classic cartel behavior,'' Spitzer said after filing the suit and announcing the arrest of two American International Group Inc. executives who allegedly participated in Marsh's bid rigging. The executives pleaded guilty yesterday. He said the taint of corruption extends to ``virtually every line of insurance.''

<snip>

``The losers in all of this, of course, are Marsh's clients and the marketplace for insurance, which Marsh has corrupted by distorting and elevating the price of insurance for every policyholder,'' Spitzer's suit said. ``Other victims are Marsh's own shareholders, who have never been told that hundreds of millions of dollars of Marsh's profits derive from illegal activity.''

...more...

[ozymandius]

9. Suit offers up e-mails as evidence

Marsh, the world's largest insurance broker, was at the centre of a systematic scheme to rig contracts to benefit its favourite insurance providers, according to the complaint filed on Thursday by Eliot Spitzer.

-cut-

In one instance, in October 2003, Marsh asked AIG to bid for an insurance deal at $900,000 in order to allow Zurich, a rival, to win the renewal of its contract with a $750,000 offer.

AIG would have been glad to forego the business because it knew that the scheme - enforced by William Gilman, executive director of marketing at Marsh Global Broking - would favour it in other situations.

-cut-

Some of the comments, listed on page 24 of the complaint, are scathing: "This idea of 'throwing the quote' by quoting artificially high numbers in some predetermined arrangement for us to lose is repugnant to me, not so much because I hate to lose, but because it is basically dishonest. And I basically agree with the comments of others that it comes awfully close to price-fixing," said one.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1106&ncid=1106&e=4&u=/ft/20041014/bs_ft/4beb42ec1e3711d982ec00000e2511c8

[KoKo]

11. And remember how they told us well over a year ago that "all the scandals

on Wall St. were out and over? Arthur Anderson would be the last big one? Kudlow and others claimed this on CNBC/WSJ/NYT's/Business Week/CBS Market Watch. ..

Since then we've had Dick Grasso, NYSE, Mutual Funds and every day there's a minor scandal with CEO's leaving or paying fines and now this. It's hard to remember them all.

Does any of this even register with the public? :crazy:

[ozymandius]

15. Most of the public is unaware of this level of corruption.

To develop a comprehensive distrust of the financial institutions that are generally built on trust, one needs to be an info addict as we are.

Information concerning the commonality of executives bailing out of corporate towers and the little scandals will not be reported either on the evening news or on the 24 hour news channels. Two reasons for this: it is not "sexy" and they do not have the time to report it all. These stories require lots of numbers - making them hard to cover when good reporting must avoid dazzling the audience with numbers.

But when news breaks, the general public tends to overreact - becoming instantly suspicious of all brokerages. Expect a stampede when only indignation will do.

And for Kudlow: they have their access and own investments to protect by NOT doing investigative work.

[KoKo]

25. Yes, good analysis, Ozy. Although with so many scandals it's hard

not to over-react, because one wonders what's the next shoe to drop. So much has been covered up. :eyes:

[54anickel]

34. Hey KoKo, I think I'm going to get me some more ziplock bags this

weekend. Matress is getting a little lumpy though. The dog's bed could use some fluffing up. :evilgrin:

[KoKo]

39. Snarf!

:D

[KoKo]

26. Some more news on Marsh story with worries in Europe....

Europe shares fall as insurers pounded, oil weighs
Fri Oct 15, 2004 03:34 AM ET
By Marie Maitre

PARIS, Oct 15 (Reuters) - European shares reeled to fresh 2-week lows on Friday, led down by insurers such as Munich Re (MUVGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) amid fears they could be exposed to a U.S. lawsuit, while oil prices near $55 a barrel further sapped sentiment.

The insurance sector was by far the biggest declining sector in early dealings after New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer sued Marsh & McLennan Cos., the world's No. 1 insurance broker, for steering unsuspecting clients to certain insurers in exchange for lucrative payoffs.

The lawsuit, which says the manipulation has occurred since the late 1990s, implicated a number of U.S. insurers as well as a Munich Re unit.

But traders said there was concern among investors that other big European names could be involved. Munich Re shares slid 5 percent, with Zurich Financial (ZURN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) and Swiss Re (RUKN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) also down about 4 percent.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh91290_2004-10-15_07-34-31_l15351466_newsml

[UpInArms]

37. The 'Everybody Knew' Defense (ARGH!!!!!!)

http://www.forbes.com/business/services/2004/10/15/cx_da_1015topnews.html

NEW YORK - The official opening of Eliot Spitzer's investigation into the insurance industry is less than 24 hours old, but already the essential defense to the New York attorney general's charges is forming. Insurance brokers and insurers will say that their allegedly corrupt practices were well enough known that they can hardly be called deceptive or illegal.

This defense tracks the defense offered by Wall Street firms to the claim that their analysts were hopelessly conflicted. The Wall Streeters said that since "everyone" knew the game was rigged, no one was hurt--except, of course, the saps buying retail who didn't know.

<snip>

Insurance brokers were supposed to be working on behalf of the buyers, finding them the best deal. But Spitzer says they were conflicted by payments from the sellers, insurance companies like American International Group (nyse: AIG - news - people ), a leading insurer that saw two of its executives plead guilty yesterday to criminal charges in connection with the alleged bid-rigging scheme. Spitzer says the civil charges against Marsh & McLennan and the two executives are part of "a widening investigation of fraud and anti-competitive practices in the insurance industry."

<snip>

Privately, though, executives are suggesting the outlines of their defense. They say the fee arrangements are nothing new and are no secret inside the insurance industry. They even have a name: "contingent commissions" or "market service agreements," and they were even disclosed to those who asked. Some policyholders have another name: kickbacks.

The idea that the game was not rigged because insiders--both buyers and sellers--knew about the payments mirrors what was said on Wall Street during the investigation into biased research. The claim then was that everyone knew the analysts were shills for the companies welling shares and paying fees to the Wall Street firms, so no one should have paid them much mind. But the problem was that no one admitted what everybody knew and outsiders didn't necessarily know. In the case of insurance, there are some repeat buyers, but others who buy just occasionally and put their trust in brokers like Marsh to get the best price.

...more...

[UpInArms]

40. AIG to no longer pay contingent commissions: AIG CEO

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38275.4361574074-823657992&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, chairman and chief executive of American International Group (AIG) , said the company will likely no longer pay contingent commissions. AIG will instead just pay "straight commissions," Greenberg said in a conference call Friday. "We believe that is the way it should be done."

Okay, where's the massive class action suit that will recover the monies that were stolen from all insurance policy holders for the past _______ (fill in that blank) years?

This freakin' POS Greenberg and his corrupt offspring need to have their bank accounts emptied and be turned into the streets without a pair of shoes to wear in the cold.

:nuke:

[UpInArms]

67. AIG employees to get charges reduced to misdemeanor

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B892F1A5F-0843-4020-9D28-DFBED4BDA885%7D&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Karen Radke and Jean-Baptist Tateossian, the AIG (AIG) executives who pleaded guilty to criminal charges in connection with an insurance industry probe by New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, will likely see their charges reduced to misdemeanor from felony, AIG Chairman and CEO Maurice "Hank" Greenberg said in a conference call with analysts earlier on Friday. Jason Brown, the attorney for Radke, confirmed that the charges will be reduced. The two pled guilty to scheme to defraud first degree. Greenberg said the two employees have been put on leave.

a slap on the wrist for defrauding the entire world :wtf:

[54anickel]

69. WTF, or was this a plea bargain offered for info that goes much higher,

then again with as corrupt as our system has become maybe they were offered lighter charges to keep them quiet. All I know is something is really stinky here.

[ozymandius]

87. This paragraph says two entirely different things.

Spitzer's office expresses the likelihood of a reduction in the severity of the charges. Radke's attorney says that they will certainly be reduced.

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Karen Radke and Jean-Baptist Tateossian, the AIG (AIG) executives who pleaded guilty to criminal charges in connection with an insurance industry probe by New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, will likely see their charges reduced to misdemeanor from felony, AIG Chairman and CEO Maurice "Hank" Greenberg said in a conference call with analysts earlier on Friday. Jason Brown, the attorney for Radke, confirmed that the charges will be reduced. The two pled guilty to scheme to defraud first degree. Greenberg said the two employees have been put on leave.

These agreements often come with lots of strings attached to them. The prosecution says: "Tell us what we want to hear -- or what we think you know -- and we'll reduce the charges. If we think you are stiffing us then we will reinstate full felony charges."

It's a common tactic among prosecutors when dealing with the smaller fish in an operation that bears the possibility of rooting out the principle instigators.

[UpInArms]

6. Enron Bankers lose US extradition fight

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/business/articles/timid83567?source=

A TEAM of NatWest investment bankers, the 'Enron Three', today lost their fight to avoid extradition to the United States to stand trial on fraud charges.

They could now face bankruptcy and up to 35 years in jail over their alleged part in a multimillion dollar fraud with disgraced executives of the bust energy giant.

The judge at Bow Street Magistrates Court said he saw no reason why the three could not face trial in Texas over the alleged fraud charges.

Judge Nicholas Evans said there was a good basis for the three, former employees of Greenwich NatWest which is now part of Royal Bank of Scotland, to be prosecuted in the US.

...more...

[ozymandius]

7. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg - lotsa charts and good read

Consumer Cyclical Stocks - Looks Like a Top

Tonight I will take a look at the short and long-term charts of several consumer cyclical sectors and stocks. Since the consumer has carried the “economic recovery” to the present, it may be important for these companies to continue to prosper if the recovery is to be sustainable. If stock performance is any leading indication, there is not a clear-cut road to a sustainable economic recovery that includes much additional stimulation from the consumer.

Homebuilders

Following is a 3-year weekly chart of the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index.



Note that the most recent uptrend has been broken and the chart is tracing a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The pattern would be completed and the downtrend confirmed when the neckline at about 520 is decisively broken to the downside. If the neckline is broken, the index should go to about 400 before it finds support. This target is also consistent with the head-and-shoulders “measurement principle.” Looks like there may be a long wait until that occurs. Is there a possibility for the more aggressive trader to trade the anticipated confirmation of the trend change? There is not since the Ryland Group is oversold, but there was such an opportunity a couple of weeks ago.

-cut-

Today’s Market

How about that bond market! Following a slew of negative economic data the bond market is rallying. The market for the moment is disagreeing with Pimco bond guru Bill Gross. A few weeks ago, Mr. Gross published a well-constructed and compelling article where he presented the case for lower bond prices and higher bond yields. Included in the article was a discussion of the hedonic adjustments, which Gross asserted, resulted in understated consumer inflation estimates. It seems that Gross faced some backlash in certain media circles concurrent with a short duration bond market swoon. Gross made an appearance on CNN FN where he defended his position and answered questions pertaining to the bond market’s poor performance (interest rates up) immediately following his published article. You can access that interview on the Pimco site and form your own conclusions. A couple of days ago, I also received an e-mailing from Pimco: “Bill Gross responds to criticism of his October 2004 Investment Outlook on www.pimco.com.” It is notable that Gross had to respond to criticism suggesting that his analysis is self-serving, and actually seemed to be put on the defensive by the TV commentator who obviously is more suited to softball interviews than the hard-hitting variety. Was his analysis of the US bond market and inflation self-serving as has been suggested? I don’t think so. While I never met Gross, he seems like a straight shooter to me and his investment record over the long term speaks volumes about his talent. Here is a 14-year weekly chart of the 10-year note’s yield.

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The major indices were all down by about 1% each on heavy trading. Stocks dropped a relatively minor amount in the face of oil exceeding $54/barrel, poor (but bond friendly) economic data, and another corporate scandal having broken today at Marsh McLennan (MMC). News of an Eliot Spitzer investigation resulted in MMC dropping by over 25%. This is also the parent company of Putnam Investments of late trading fame. Eliot - your efforts are misguided! Why don’t you investigate Martha Stewart? Don’t you know what is really important to investors?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[lil-petunia]

and how is Sinclair stock doing?

any movement?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

14. I hope it's dropping like a big rock in a deep-sea canyon.

[KoKo]

16. Here's a link to the chart. Looks like it stabilized yesterday.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=SBGI

[lil-petunia]

35. so the owner who tried to save it, bought 25000 shares - - -

that means he spent 191,000 and change and over three days, the price dropped to
174,000 at its lowest.

Aha! losing $16,000. I feel so,

"in just seven days, I can make me a man!"

[ozymandius]

18. Here's the latest data. No change over 24 hours.

SINCLAIR BRD A (NasdaqNM: SBGI)

Last Trade: 7.11
Trade Time: Oct 14
Change: 0.00 (0.00%)
Prev Close: 7.11
Open: N/A
Bid: 7.08 x 200
Ask: 7.16 x 100
1y Target Est: 11.00
52wk Range: 6.87 - 15.43
Volume: 0
Avg Vol (3m): 334,409

Here's a chart of yesterday's performance:
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=SBGI

Here's a chart of SBGI stock over the past week.
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/v?s=SBGI

EDIT: news Sinclair Revises Third Quarter Revenue Estimates

Company to Report Final Third Quarter Results on November 4, 2004

Initial guidance was for third quarter net broadcast revenues to be up 4% to 5% from third quarter 2003 net broadcast revenues of $161.3 million. However, due to weakness primarily in auto advertising spending and cancellations resulting from the recent hurricanes which impacted eight of the Company's television stations in the Southeast, the Company is revising its net broadcast revenue guidance to be approximately $163.7 million in the third quarter.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041004/phm041_1.html

[ozymandius]

10. US posts record 2004 budget deficit of 413 billion dollars (good pics)

Can you smell the incompetence?

WASHINGTON (AFP) - US President George W. Bush (news - web sites)'s administration announced a record 2004 budget deficit of 413 billion dollars, firing up a pre-election battle over the economy.

-cut-

As a result, the deficit mushroomed 9.5 percent from 2003 to 413 billion dollars -- equal to 3.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP (news - web sites)), or total economic output.

-cut-

The budget papers showed:

-- Defense spending in 2004 surged 12.4 percent to 437 billion dollars, education spending rose 9.4 percent to 63 billion dollars, and health-related spending climbed 7.5 percent to 543 billion dollars.

-- But "homeland security" expenditure slumped 16.3 percent to 27 billion dollars, and spending on labor, including job training, dropped 18.5 percent to 57 billion dollars.

[UpInArms]

12. Bush plays his deficit shell game

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/10/15/BUG9K99OQ11.DTL

In his final debate with Sen. John Kerry on Wednesday night, President Bush reiterated his pledge to cut the nation's record budget deficit in half by the end of one more term in office.

"It requires pro-growth policies that grow our economy and fiscal sanity in the halls of Congress," he declared.

A day later, Bush's Treasury secretary, John Snow, told the halls of Congress that he's taking the extreme step of using government workers' pension money to avoid increased borrowing that would push the Bush administration past a $7.38 trillion debt ceiling.

<snip>

In any case, Bush isn't the first president to exploit the $56 billion Government Securities Investment Fund, or G-Fund, for a little fiscal sleight of hand.

That honor, a Treasury Department spokeswoman told me, goes to the president's dad, George H.W. Bush, who tapped government workers' pension money in 1989 when confronted with a fast-approaching debt ceiling of $2.8 trillion.

...more...

"Ah'm gonna pick up whar ma daddy lef' off" GWB (Campaign 2000)

[Media_Lies_Daily]

17. Where the heck is this alleged 9.4% increase in education spending?....

Nearly every single state, if not all, has had to CUT educational programs due to the CUT in Federal programs. Where the heck did this 9.4% increase go??

[UpInArms]

20. maybe the insurance companies got it? ....... n/t

[ozymandius]

27. I think I found the money.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_10_10.php#003668

Nathan Sproul, it seems, is also a regional president of Voyager Expanded Learning Company, a company chock-full of Bush cronies currently supping at the No Child Left Behind act gravy-train. Also at Voyager is Jim Nelson, President Bush's education commissioner during his tenure in Texas. That was before the president appointed him as deputy education czar in Baghdad for a brief stint in 2003. This thread at Kos seems to provide a complete Sproularama.

This paragraph is full of links.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

29. I should have known. Thanks.

[KoKo]

43. BFEE........skeletal hand reaches everywhere into all corners...incredible

Especially when they appear to be such blitering idiots. Makes me wonder who "really" runs them. :eyes:

[54anickel]

38. My eyes! My eyes!!!

Sheesh Shrub looks wasted in that pic! Leans into the mic, with that cowboy yuk-yuk snicker and says, "Well, ya think that's high ya ain't seen nuttin yet. Gimme 4 more years and I'll show you what debt really is, cuz you see, it don't matter. Raygun proved it, Cheney said it, and I am gonna stay the course".

[UpInArms]

22. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:18AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures market has gained a little momentum heading into the start of regular trading, but the relatively disappointing Industrial Production (+0.1% vs +0.3% consensus) and Capacity Utilization (77.2% vs 77.5% consensus) reports should help to keep early buying efforts in check

8:58AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Retail sales data have acted as a stabilizing influence for traders as the futures market has pivoted from indicating a slightly lower start for the cash market to suggesting a slightly higher start... The recent bid in the futures market notwithstanding, buyers continue to exhibit some reluctance as the market's inability of late to sustain an advance has proven worrisome...

Separately, look for the insurance stocks to remain under pressure in the early-going as Prudential is cutting its sector view to Unfavorable from Neutral; meanwhile, MMC has been downgraded at several firms

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures market catches a bid from the better than expected retail sales data (+1.5% overall and +0.6% ex-auto vs consensus of +0.7% and +0.3%, respectively) and generally benign PPI report... Current indications suggest slight gains for the cash market at the start of trading

8:09AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Little enthusiasm seen in the futures market as current indications suggest the cash market will start the day on a relatively flat note...

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, a test of the August- September uptrend line crossing near 1411.32 is the next downside target. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 0.50 pts. at 1431 as of 5:56 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above September's low crossing at 1101.60. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below September's low would open the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the August- October rally crossing at 1092.90 later this month. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

23. 9:39 EST and markets are open (and UP!)

Dow 9,939.13 +44.68 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,907.14 +4.12 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,107.62 +4.33 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.025% +0.010

NYSE Volume 87,886,000
Nasdaq Volume 130,614,000

[UpInArms]

28. 9:52 EST numbers and blather (going down quickly)

Dow 9,907.35 +12.90 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,903.62 +0.60 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,103.86 +0.57 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.043% +0.028

NYSE Volume 167,547,000
Nasdaq Volume 215,519,000

9:45AM: Indices open a bit stronger than futures suggested...strong September retail sales gain of 1.5% (0.6% excluding autos) helped...September industrial production was only up 0.1%, but the release said that hurricanes cut production by 0.3%, so that is generally in line with overall economic trends and not as weak as it appears at first glance...no big earnings reports, but Wachovia (WB 47.69 +0.40) beat by 2 cents...oil is down a bit in early trading...

[UpInArms]

32. 10:08 EST numbers and blather (Rally! Yeehaw!)

Dow 9,927.70 +33.25 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,904.90 +1.88 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,105.15 +1.86 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.045% +0.030

NYSE Volume 268,276,000
Nasdaq Volume 313,806,000

10:00AM: Early kick fades as recent underlying cautious sentiment re-emerges...the SOX semiconductor index is now down slightly, after opening higher...Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS 13.31 -0.27) was the most recent firm to give a disappointing fourth quarter outlook...this came with their earnings report after the close yesterday...

What are these people smokin'?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

36. With nearly all of the indicators heading down,...

...why is the market heading up?? :wtf:

[54anickel]

41. Heh, maybe they are limiting the processing to buy orders only, the sells

come later. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

42. Buck is still bottom feeding. Dipped below 87.00 for a moment

Last trade 87.05 Change -0.50 (-0.57%)

Settle 87.55 Settle Time 23:35

Open 87.58 Previous Close 87.55

High 87.85 Low 86.99

edit to add a bit o' blather:

The December Dollar was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates above this month's low crossing at 87.41. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If this fall's decline continues, weekly support crossing at 87.20 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 88.79 are needed to confirm that a triple bottom has been posted and would signal that a trend change has taken place. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

[54anickel]

45. Earnings Roll In

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

October 13, 2004

On Wednesday, prices for base metals plunged. Copper fell 11%, lead dropped 6%, nickel sunk 17%, tin declined 6% and zinc fell 7%. The main reason for the drop was a report published by the International Copper Study Group. It said that Chinese copper demand fell 21% in July. Yes, July. I will not claim to have much insight to the monthly economic data regarding China, but if data that is three months old causes historic declines in these commodities, I question the level of analysis that is being done. We know hedge funds have recently entered the commodity pits and have contributed to the volatility. Never mind. I have answered my own question. Even with the declines on Wednesday, most of these metals remain above the level they were just a month ago.

Over the past two weeks there were reports that steel producers have reduced surcharges and are accepting lower prices. It is also believed that customers have been building up inventory levels and the latest round of price increases might not have the support that previous increased had. With that said, steel prices are more than double the price of last year. This escalation has caused several manufacturers to reduce earnings guidance. One sector that has been especially hard hit has been the auto suppliers. This week, Dana announced that its earnings will be about thrity cents lower than previously anticipated. Higher steel and other raw material costs along with lower production volumes caused the company to slash earnings per share guidance to a range between $1.60 and $1.65. Previously, the auto supplier forecasted earnings per share of $1.90. Last week, Tower Automotive announced that its loss during the third quarter will be about twice what analysts were forecasting.

While several auto suppliers have been hampered by the rise in steel prices the Big Three auto manufactures have largely been insulated from the rising price. Their long-term contracts were negotiated several years ago when steel was much cheaper. This has started to change. DaimlerChrysler was the first automaker to start renewing its steel contracts. According to Automotive News, the price agreed to is 20% higher than the previous price. This will add about $120 to the cost of manufacturing the average car. This will add more pressure to these companies that are already suffering from lower production levels and soaring health care costs. In fact, these two factors were cited by Moody’s when it announced it is reviewing General Motor’s debt for possible downgrade. The fixed income rating company also cited its concerns regarding losses in GM's European operations.

snip>

The number of pre-announcements over the past couple weeks has accelerated. The ratio of negative pre-announcements over positive announcements has increased to 2.1 from 2.0 at the beginning of the month and only 1.8 at the beginning of August. Earnings growth estimates have slipped to 13.0%, down from 13.8% at the beginning of October. Only about 10% of the S&P 500 has reported third quarter earnings. As the rest of the companies report earning over the next two weeks, investors should gain more clarity on business conditions and the prospects for the rest of the year.

more...

[UpInArms]

47. U.S. ECRI weekly leading index at 81-week low (No Soft Patch Recovery)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38275.4554861111-823660210&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Leading economic indicators are pointing to lackluster U.S. growth, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said Friday. The ECRI's weekly leading index fell 1 percent last week, the slowest growth in 81 weeks. The index has fallen for nine straight weeks. The decline shows that the economy is not reacclerating out of the soft patch, ECRI economists say. Oil prices are not the primary cause of the weakness, they said.

[54anickel]

50. Well, that certainly throws the Feds theory out the window, don't it? n/t

[UpInArms]

53. which halloween costume will Meanspin wear today?

[UpInArms]

58. High oil has cut growth, Greenspan

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB7346D5E%2DED33%2D4064%2D86C7%2D5FB37D979286%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The rise in the cost of imported oil has already had some negative consequences on the economy this year, Fed chair Alan Greenspan said.

"So far this year, the rise in the value of imported oil - essentially a tax on U.S. residents - has amounted to about three quarters of one percent of GDP," Greenspan said in a speech exploring many issues surrounding oil prices prepared for delivery to the National Italian American Foundation.

Although this is a noticeable impact, it is "likely to prove less consequential to economic growth and inflation than in the 1970s," he said.

Greenspan said the risks of more serious negative consequences would intensify if oil prices were to move "materially higher."

...more...

I say it was the Joker!



I so am looking forward to the stagflation of the '70s!

[54anickel]

56. Funny how this doesn't appear to be getting picked up by the media yet.

[54anickel]

48. Will Fed Keep Inflation Low When Greenspan Exits?

I found the timing of this discussion interesting in light of the nobel prize award earlier this week. Anyone know off the top of their head who all has input into awarding that prize? Just curious, would save me digging around for it as I reach for the tinfoil.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=afQpyMEyKYmU

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- When Alan Greenspan is no longer leading the Federal Reserve, can the central bank be trusted to keep inflation low?

Greenspan will leave when his term on the Fed Board expires 15 months from now, and his successor, whoever it is, won't arrive with anything like this chairman's personal credibility as an inflation fighter.

The issue is whether the Fed's institutional credibility will be great enough to keep financial markets calm while the new chairman proves his ability to handle the complex job.

The job, after all, involves more than just economic smarts. A successful Fed chairman has to be able to persuade his 18 policymaking colleagues to follow his lead, to deal successfully with Congress and to work with an executive branch whose priorities may not be those of the Fed.

At a conference at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank last week, several Fed officials expressed confidence the transition could proceed without a market upheaval. One reason they gave was that the Fed's current credibility is as much institutional as it is Greenspan's personally.

more...

[UpInArms]

49. Higher crude margin requirement may spur rally: analyst

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38275.4578935185-823660465&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- At the close of trading Friday, the New York Mercantile Exchange will raise the margins on the December 2004 through March 2005 light, sweet crude-oil futures and calendar swap futures contracts to $3,000 from $2,500 for clearing members, to $3,300 from $2,750 for members, and to $4,050 from $3,375 for customers. This means "certain people will simply have to get out of being short because of margins, and that can help the prices rally even more," said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest International.

[54anickel]

51. Short covering, that's what the blather is stating for the overall market

as well. I'd be willing to bet that once they finish their shopping spree, we will be seeing red again. Just a hunch, based on all of the bad news being reported.

10:30AM: Market shows more resilience this morning than it has in recent days, and bounces right back...the S&P is down 16 points for the week, so there might be some short-covering, or buying on weakness...oil is down about 30 cents...volume is decent again today...NYSE Adv/Dec 1694/1049, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1242/1178

[54anickel]

52. Global: Productivity Convergence?

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041015-fri.html#anchor0

It feels different in Europe. The pain of stagnation has evoked a powerful backlash that is finally driving meaningful structural reforms. Europe has nowhere to go but up, and that long and arduous journey now appears to be under way. America, by contrast, is at the top of its game -- coming off eight fat years the likes of which most leading economies have rarely seen. But now burdened with an unprecedented shortfall of national saving, a record current-account deficit, and a massive overhang of debt, it will be exceedingly difficult for the US to keep the magic alive. At work over the next several years could well be the beginning of a stunning productivity convergence between the US and Europe -- a shift that could have profound implications for the global economy, financial markets, and currencies.

The transformation in European sentiment regarding its economy has been classic -- from denial to capitulation to despair and now to anger. Over the past year, in my travels to Europe, I have detected increasingly visible signs of this latter stage -- a palpable sense of anger and frustration. I was back in Europe this week only to have these observations confirmed yet again. But now there is an important twist: Europe is in the process of converting its angst into action -- ushering in a long-awaited structural transformation that promises to alter the efficiency, competitiveness, and, yes, productivity of this vast and heterogeneous region. Like all such transformations, the changes are hard to see in the beginning. Over time, however, they build on one another. Europe is now making meaningful progress in putting several of these key building blocks in place.

Two such developments strike me as most important -- the first being an improvement in labor market flexibility. This has been concentrated in the core of Old Europe -- Germany and France -- where workers and businesses are now coming together to challenge the mandated rigidities of shortened work schedules. Germany is the leading case in point -- offering the tantalizing possibility that the nation that is hurting the most is now “getting it” the most. As Elga Bartsch of our Euro-zone team has noted, the average employee in Germany has a work schedule that is about 15% shorter than that of US workers. German industry is now challenging this key entitlement. Six months ago, agreement was reached at two Siemens plants to raise the work week from 35 to 40 hours. Adding in agreement to abrogate guaranteed holiday bonuses, Elga estimates that labor costs will be reduced by about 30% at these plants (see her 7 July 2004 essay, “Reforms Reach the Grass Roots”).

At the same time, German labor unions are losing their bargaining power. Membership is down and bargaining has become more fragmented. In 2000, only 63% of employees in the West German manufacturing sector were covered by industry-wide wage agreements -- down sharply from the 72% share in 1995. In addition, Germany has come to grips with the rigidities of worker attachment. Currently, “flexi-workers” -- part time and temporary employees -- make up about 30% of the German work force; as recently as 1990, that share was about 20%. Recent announced headcount reductions -- especially at GM’s Opel subsidiary and by the retailer, Karstadt -- are only the latest in a series of measures that will continue to put pressure on already weakened unions and still rigid and high German wages. Germany still has a long way to go in the realm of labor market flexibility, but meaningful progress is now under way.

more...

:shrug: I don't know, did we really have a productivity miracle or is that part of the Greenspin myth? I'll concede that technology did contribute to our increased productivity, but so did exporting our inflation while importing some of that productivity from Asia.

[54anickel]

54. Foes of Expensing Welcome FASB Delay

http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/troywolverton/10188083.html

The decision by accounting regulators on Wednesday to postpone by six months a requirement that companies recognize options costs means that the fight over expensing won't end for at least eight more months. Many observers expect opponents of expensing to use the extra time to limit the rule's effects -- or derail the new accounting rule.

"I would be betting that does not see the light of day," said Robert Willens, a tax and accounting analyst with Lehman Brothers. "I think the opposition forces will prevail here."

Although opponents blocked a similar effort in the mid-1990s, few expected them to succeed this time. Even as recently as March, many observers believed that expensing was inevitable, and thought the struggle would be all but over by now.

That the issue is still in dispute -- and possibly in doubt -- has much to do with election-year politics and the perceived lack of political sensitivity by the accounting regulators, observers say. With the election so close, the parties are desperate for campaign money. And the technology industry provides a ready source of cash. :grr:

more...

[54anickel]

55. General Motors and Ford Won't Survive as Bankers

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pauly&sid=amuO_75ObjIM

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., known for a century as manufacturers of cars and trucks, today make their living as money lenders.

There was continuing evidence of that yesterday when General Motors reported a third-quarter profit of $440 million, or 78 cents a share -- all from its financing business, General Motors Acceptance Corp. GMAC's earnings of $656 million covered the parent's losses from making vehicles.

For seven consecutive quarters now, General Motors has made more from lending than manufacturing. Ford has become dependent on its credit business too. The company, which reports third- quarter results Tuesday, got $897 million of its second-quarter profit of $1.17 billion from financing car purchases.

Does it make any difference whether the companies make their profit from making vehicles or lending on them? A profit is a profit after all. This is how it works: In the first half of 2004, Ford Motor Credit Co.'s business was subsidized by Ford auto to the tune of $1.67 billion in what Ford Credit calls ``interest supplements and other support costs.'' The finance unit's profit for the period was $1.59 billion.

Laggards

Still, the answer to the question is yes. The inability to make cars and trucks profitably is a refection of the inability of General Motors and Ford to compete with Japanese rivals Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. While U.S. consumers have been on a spending spree the past three years, GM and Ford could only sell cars and trucks by offering huge incentives, which reached a peak last month when GM offered buyers six-year interest-free loans.

more...

[54anickel]

57. Buy America II: The First Shoe Drops

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/appel/appel101404.html

snip>

China is presently accumulating dollar credits at the mind-blowing monthly pace of over $10 U.S. billion. This is in addition to the reported one half trillion plus dollars that they currently possess. This incredible cache of U.S. credits is acting as both a boon to China and an Albatross around it's neck. On the positive side it is utilized to fund the purchase of massive amounts of raw materials that are direly needed by their industries. Negatively, it forces the government to generate a substantial and undesirable increase in their local currency, the yuan. This is fostering inflation in their domestic price structure which is threatening to undermine their economy's future growth and health.

When a Chinese business acquires U.S. dollars they exchanged them for yuan through their banking system. The yuan are created by the Chinese central bank. By significantly inflating their money supply inflation is generated. Additionally, this greatly expanded availability of capital is stimulating poor investment decisions and an overexpansion of projects which may outpace the markets that they hope to service. This too can do long-term harm to their economy.

Further damage accrues to China as the result of the ongoing decline of the dollar. The dollar's fall is generating currency exchange losses for all of the United States' trading partners, including the Chinese. This threatens China's dollar holdings with further depreciation, and gives them an additional reason to find avenues to rid themselves of their dollars, before they lose even more of their value.

Most of the dollar credits that leave the United States to fund our balance of payments deficits return, and are invested in U.S. Treasury paper. This results because foreign states have only a few primary fashions to utilize their amassed dollars. They can use them to acquire other currencies, American products or assets, or they can invest them in U.S. Treasuries where they will bear interest.

This circumstance has worked exceptionally well for the U.S.. First, the dollars leave our domestic monetary system and therefore are no longer counted in our money supply. Next, it allows our government to run budget deficits, and fund them through the issuance of Treasury paper which our trading partners largely purchase. In effect, the dollars that leave our nation, only soon to return, are invested in our Treasuries, thus restraining an increase in our monetary aggregates. Had these dollars remained within our monetary system they would have fostered inflation. Unfortunately, recent events may be aligning to create a condition where this situation may be in a state of change.

snip>

As I stated in the precursor to this essay, "If you will recall, during the latter half of the 1980's, a wave of foreign purchases occurred of American real estate and businesses as well as irreplaceable works of art and other items ....This 'buying of America' was led by the Japanese, and at times a certain amount of U.S. outrage occurred as asset after asset was being gobbled up by our foreign trading partners. During this era, landmarks such as Rockefeller Center, Pebble Beach as well as Universal Pictures were acquired by the Japanese."

It remains to be seen if we are experiencing the first in a series of similar Chinese acquisitions. However, I believe that this is only one of numerous ideas that China is considering to divest themselves of their mountain of U.S. dollar credits. China's government is likely already directing their efforts to make purchases in other areas, and in different asset classes, using their dollars. In any event, it is my contention that we are witnessing the early stage of a flight from the U.S. dollar, as visibly depicted by the recent actions of the Chinese. When a widespread movement out of the dollar occurs with a vengeance, this time it will be different, and it will likely be far worse than our 1970's experience.

more...

[UpInArms]

59. DOCUMENTS ON SNOWJOB'S CONFLICT OF INTEREST

12:07pm 10/15/04 SNOW DOCUMENTS DETAIL POSSIBLE CONFLICT OF INTEREST

12:08pm 10/15/04 <$TNX> TREASURYS DECLINE DEEPENS AS GREENSPAN SPEAKS

12:08pm 10/15/04 SNOW HELD INVESTMENTS IN FANNIE, FREDDIE: SEN. BAUCUS

12:07pm 10/15/04 SENATOR TURNS OVER SNOW DOCUMENTS TO JUSTICE DEPT.

[54anickel]

61. EWWWWW!!! This ought to get interesting! Any details yet? n/t

[UpInArms]

63. Justice Dept. gets documents on Snow's GSE investments

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38275.5096527778-823666381&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Justice Department has received documents provided by Treasury Secretary John Snow to the Senate Banking Committee relating to possible conflicts of interest in Snow's investments in government-sponsored entities, including Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) , Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., said Friday. Snow held the $10 million investment in GSE bonds for 16 months while he was involved in decision making about regulation and oversight of the companies, Baucus said. The potential conflict was revealed in May.

hmmmm....

let me think ....

problems at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under the supervision of Snow.

hmmmmm....

could there be something going on that SnowJob didn't want to deal with?

:nodshead:

[54anickel]

60. 12:11 lunchtime check

Dow 9,934.27 +39.82 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,905.25 +2.23 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,106.66 +3.37 (+0.31%)
10-yr Bond 4.059% +0.044
30-yr Bond 4.846% +0.021
NYSE Volume 773,038,000
Nasdaq Volume 780,885,000

12:00PM: Stocks opened higher, and showed good resilience after quickly dipping into negative territory to bounce back to post modest gains at mid-day...the good news today includes a very strong 1.5% gain in September retail sales, with a 0.6% increase in sales excluding autos...also helping is a 30 cent drop in the December crude oil futures contract...less helpful has been a weak October Consumer Confidence reading... PPI was up 0.1% which was in line with expectations and a slightly higher than expected 0.3% core increase may well prove a minor blip...
the drug sector is down today as Pfizer (PFE 27.78 -1.30) said it will conduct further studies on Bextra arthritis drug, and the insurance industry remains under pressure from Spitzer's plans to investigate the industry...volume is reasonably good, and advancing issues have a solid lead on declining issues...NYSE Adv/Dec 1948/1073, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1492/1249

11:30AM: Choppy trade continues to dominate at modestly higher levels with the averages slipping back slightly in recent action after failing to retest the morning highs. For the S&P 500 the line in the sand for the short term is at 1108 which marks its 50 day simple avg as well as the morning high. Sector weakness is being seen this morning again in insurance along with healthcare, health provider, biotech, drug and disk drive. On the plus side are gold, utility, chemical and semiconductor. Market internals are mixed with the up/down volume ratio at the Nasdaq slightly negative. NYSE Adv/Dec 1919/1046, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1479/1190

11:00AM : In the Dow, Pfizer (PFE 27.76 -1.32) is being hit on announcement it will conduct further studies on its Bextra arthritis drug...American Group Insurance (AIG 58.27 -1.73) had a conference call today to discuss Spitzer investigation into industry practices...on the plus side, American Express (AXP 52.48 +0.77), Boeing (BA 51.02 +0.77), and Procter & Gamble (PG 53.77 +0.80) are leading...NYSE Adv/Dec 1836/1070, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1459/1147

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1985 (60%) 1468 (49%)
Declines 1064 (32%) 1309 (44%)
Unchanged 209 (6%) 167 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 357 (50%) 290 (39%)
Down Vol* 326 (46%) 405 (55%)
Unch. Vol* 24 (3%) 35 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 60 27
New Lo's 55 40

[54anickel]

62. Strange action today. Do you suppose the 18billion in repos issued

yesterday are at play here? Dollar down, yet gold goes nowhere. REports are bad yet stocks are up and treasuries down. :wtf:

[UpInArms]

73. they can't issue any more treasuries because of the

debt limit

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1802&e=5&u=/washpost/20041015/ts_washpost/a32985_2004oct14

excerpt:

The federal government regularly sells Treasury bonds to finance the difference between the amount of money it collects in taxes each year and the amount it spends. The debt ceiling was first imposed in 1917 to act as a brake on the total amount of accumulated debt the government owes. Today the total debt includes money owed either to private investors or, in the case of funds borrowed from surplus Social Security (news - web sites) taxes, to other government programs.

[54anickel]

74. Think that will cause an increase in repos? Are they considered in with

that debt ceiling or are they "special"?

[UpInArms]

75. Re-Pos are Treasury securities

and as such - I guess there won't be any more issued until they lift the debt ceiling.

Wonder how that will affect all of the markets?

http://muextension.missouri.edu/explore/hesguide/famecon/gh3521.htm

excerpt:

Money market mutual funds, like money market deposit accounts (MMDAs), invest in short-term securities. These include:

U.S. Treasury bills and federal agency securities. See the discussion beginning on page 3.
Negotiable certificates of deposit. These are large CDs for which the terms are negotiated between the financial institution and the lender (investor).
Commercial paper. As an alternative to borrowing from banks, large, creditworthy corporations may sell commercial paper, which consist of short-term, unsecured promissory notes in large denominations.
Bankers' acceptances. These credit instruments are complicated transactions used in the export-import business.
Repurchase agreements. With "repos," as they are often called, the security seller agrees to repurchase (buy back) the security at a set price (which is higher than the initial sale price) on a specific date. Generally, repurchase agreements are large, short-term loans (sometimes for only one day or a few days).

Unlike money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) offered at financial institutions, the principal and earnings from securities held in money market mutual funds are not federally insured. However, because of the short-term nature of the investments, money market mutual funds are considered highly liquid and low-risk (depending upon the investments held in the portfolio and whether they are privately insured).

Money market mutual funds generally offer somewhat higher rates of return than MMDAs, to compensate for the slightly higher risk.

[54anickel]

76. Thanks UIA, I didn't think they would figure in to the ceiling, but it

looks like they do. Interesting....

[UpInArms]

77. looks like Bernanke lost his

printing press :evilgrin:

[TrogL]

92. Don't most companies get in trouble for raiding the pension fund?

[UpInArms]

64. 12:23 EST numbers (Meanspin speaks and market roars to life)

Dow 9,949.53 +55.08 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,909.80 +6.78 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,108.34 +5.05 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.053% +0.038
NYSE Volume 816,845,000
Nasdaq Volume 825,286,000

[54anickel]

66. Nah, they're just getting ahead of the game while everyone is out to

lunch, heh-heh. Aren't those volumes still pretty low?

[UpInArms]

65. Meanspin says "crude price no problem"

fawning writers attribute omnipotent powers to this POS

Crude futures continue lower after Greenspan remarks

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38275.5272337963-823668427&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

By Myra P. Saefong
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- November crude is down 24 cents at $54.52 a barrel in New York. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the rise in the cost of imported oil has already had some negative consequences on the economy this year. But "it doesn't sound like he's saying it'll be a crushing blow to the economy," unless oil prices climb much higher, said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

[54anickel]

68. But they'll never commit to how much higher - the bar of when it becomes

a blow keeps rising.

[UpInArms]

78. crude price ignores Meanspin - closes higher - $54.85

2:26pm 10/15/04 NOV CRUDE TURNS HIGHER IN LAST 5 MIN OF NY TRADE

2:26pm 10/15/04 NOV CRUDE UP 9C AT $54.85/BRL

[NewYorkerfromMass]

70. Market is directly responding to pro-Bush Zogby poll

I swear, yesterday they knew Bush looked bad in the debate, but now Zogby is showing them that it's O.K., Bush will still win.
They are scared of Kerry coming after them with higher taxes and closing all their loopholes.

[UpInArms]

71. 1:10 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,958.82 +64.37 (+0.65%)
Nasdaq 1,915.57 +12.55 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,110.25 +6.96 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.096% +0.081

NYSE Volume 969,217,000
Nasdaq Volume 964,228,000

1:00PM: Traders disagree on the stimulus for the quick run-up, but the Greenspan comments certainly helped, and now the market is holding the gains well...perhaps a bit of latent bullishness was unleashed...it is an interesting day in that NYSE volume exceeds Nasdaq volume...a rare occurrence...the lack on enthusiasm in the semiconductor sector may have dampened interest in techs...also, there is heavy volume in insurance and drug stocks today as Marsh & Mclennnan (MMC 29.65 -5.20) is getting hammered over Spitzer's potential inquiry into industry practices...

MMC has traded 65 million shares and American Insurance Group (AIC 57.40 -2.60) has booked 39 million...NYSE Adv/Dec 2147/960, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1723/1143

[54anickel]

72. Catch the 12:30 blather - Al-Qaeda!!!!!

12:30PM: Market catches a tail wind...Greenspan on wires saying the economy can handle the surge in oil prices, even though it has an impact...report of an Al-Qaeda official in Germany may have provided a boost...oil is still lower but not dropping...NYSE Adv/Dec 1952/1122, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1487/1314

[UpInArms]

79. Program Trading declines at NYSE (more than 50% of week's trades)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B67EA9F99%2D6690%2D4A0D%2D91E3%2DFC88DDC13480%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Although still going strong, program trading saw a slight decline at the New York Stock Exchange.

During the week ended Oct. 8, some 50.2 percent of all transactions -- or 736.9 million a day -- resulted from automated triggers, according to NYSE's weekly statistics. Program trading was 54.4 percent the previous week.

During the preceding 52 weeks, 47.8 percent of all transactions were triggered electronically, a daily average of 673.2 million.

Program buys outnumbered sales, 384.2 million to 352.7 million, on the average day during the week ended Oct. 8.

In the preceding 52 weeks, 342.9 million buys and 330.3 million sales were executed through computer programs.

UBS Securities (UBS: news, chart, profile) continues to do the most program trading, moving 612.7 million shares in this manner during the week, down from 657.7 million the previous week.

...more...

[UpInArms]

80. 3:08 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,927.85 +33.40 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,908.95 +5.93 (+0.31%)
S&P 500 1,106.95 +3.66 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.055% +0.040

NYSE Volume 1,330,976,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,316,351,000

3:00 ET The firmer tone is intact but the market averages have continued to pull back from their early afternoon highs. While the spike in crude oil to the $55 area (closed at $54.88) appeared to be a trigger for the beginning of the pull back, traders were also likely a bit nervous holding long positions into the weekend in the wake of the aggressive decline over the last week or so. The S&P 500 is currently attempting to stabilize after retesting its 50 day sma at 1108. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2275/964. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1809/1177.

dollar still down

Last trade 87.10 Change -0.45 (-0.51%)

[54anickel]

81. I dunno, I'm still watching for that late round of profit taking! n/t

[UpInArms]

82. some of that going on now - also

there's some interesting one-liners showing on the marketwatch ticker

3:37pm 10/15/04 SEN. GRASSLEY PROBES POSSIBLE FDA/MERCK VIOXX PACT

3:30pm 10/15/04 SENATOR:: DID FDA GIVE "HEADS UP" TO MERCK ON
VIOXX ?

That could definitely impact the "independent" stance of the FDA.

hmmmm...

[UpInArms]

85. Sen. Grassley probes possible FDA/Merck Vioxx pact

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38275.664224537-823683577&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- In the wake of the recall of Merck's arthritis drug Vioxx, Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, is probing whether the Food and Drug Administration had a prior pact with Merck (MRK) to notify the firm before publishing negative drug studies. Grassley on Friday sent a letter to Merck CEO Raymond Gilmartin asking if the firm ever sought FDA studies of Merck drugs before publication. Grassley said an internal FDA email suggests the agency delayed release of a negative Vioxx study until Merck could be notified.

Hey FDA! Who's your daddy?

[ozymandius]

83. Hi 54anickel. Thought I would dash in here before the bell.

3:47
Dow 9,929.55 +35.10 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq 1,911.56 +8.54 (+0.45%)
S&P 500 1,107.55 +4.26 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.053% +0.038
NYSE Volume 1,532,510,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,510,446,000

[54anickel]

86. Wow, guess they hung in there afterall. Not the best numbers technically,

but they're all in the black for the day. Color me confused. Glad I didn't put any money on it!

[ozymandius]

88. Who could tell what would happen?

It makes sense that the markets would tank based on the consumer confidence report and industrial manufacturing numbers. But then it would make sense that vultures would gobble up bargains.

I believe you did a wise thing by not wagering.

[ozymandius]

84. Atrios takes notice of the currency markets.

Euro

Whenever I want a quick snapshot of the "market response" to the economic news of the day (as a signal of the news itself) I check the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro. It seems to respond in a more predictable way to the economic reports of the day than does the stock market. That doesn't make it "more right," it just provides a quicker sense of whether there's net good or bad news for the day. So, I clicked over today and noticed that the Euro spiked up this morning to $1.25.

Wondering why I checked the economic calendar, and note that while retail sails are up (good news for the economy), production is flat capacity utilization is flat, and consumer sentiment is down.

http://atrios.blogspot.com/2004/10/euro.html

[ozymandius]

89. closing numbers

Dow 9,933.38 +38.93 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,911.50 +8.48 (+0.45%)
S&P 500 1,108.20 +4.91 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.053% +0.038
NYSE Volume 1,651,218,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,631,852,000

[nolabels]

90. Damn off by three points, maybe next time

:bounce:

[TrogL]

91. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html


2004-09-15 Wednesday, September 15 0.770001 USD
2004-09-16 Thursday, September 16 0.774353 USD
2004-09-17 Friday, September 17 0.769112 USD
2004-09-20 Monday, September 20 0.772559 USD
2004-09-21 Tuesday, September 21 0.776036 USD
2004-09-22 Wednesday, September 22 0.780275 USD
2004-09-23 Thursday, September 23 0.78235 USD
2004-09-24 Friday, September 24 0.783515 USD
2004-09-27 Monday, September 27 0.785053 USD
2004-09-28 Tuesday, September 28 0.784068 USD
2004-09-29 Wednesday, September 29 0.785546 USD
2004-09-30 Thursday, September 30 0.790639 USD
2004-10-01 Friday, October 1 0.791828 USD
2004-10-04 Monday, October 4 0.785793 USD
2004-10-05 Tuesday, October 5 0.792079 USD
2004-10-06 Wednesday, October 6 0.794155 USD
2004-10-07 Thursday, October 7 0.795102 USD
2004-10-08 Friday, October 8 0.799233 USD
2004-10-12 Tuesday, October 12 0.795229 USD
2004-10-13 Wednesday, October 13 0.791139 USD
2004-10-14 Thursday, October 14 0.798212 USD
2004-10-15 Friday, October 15 0.798722 USD



The loonie's losing a bit of ground against everything except the greenback (and of course the HKD).

Often when this happens, people are complaining about the Canadian economy being tied to closely to the US economy. Martin has been working long and hard at forging relationships with developing economies such as China. When do we get credit for them?