STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 11October

[ozymandius]

Monday October 11, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 101
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 22
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 304 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 358 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1054
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 8, 2004

Dow... 10,055.20 -70.20 (-0.69%)
Nasdaq... 1,919.97 -28.55 (-1.47%)
S&P 500... 1,122.14 -8.51 (-0.75%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.13% -0.11 (-2.62%)
Gold future... 424.50 +5.00 (+1.18%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood - THE DOW REPORT

More Dow Theory Misconceptions

Recently, it seems that I am seeing more and more misquotes of Dow theory. It is apparent to me that these misquotes are a direct result of the lack of study on the subject. For that reason I have decided to again discuss a few of the more recent erroneous writings on Dow theory. I would like to address a few of these misquotes over the next few weeks because it serves as a great backdrop for teaching and correcting some of the current misconceptions of this great theory. Also, this is a good platform in which to do so.

MISCONCEPTION #1
A Dow Theory “Buy Signal” occurred in May 2003.

No such signal occurred in May 2003. Robert Rhea wrote, “a widespread opinion prevails among those who have not studied the subject that Dow’s theory implies buying or selling after confirmation of primary direction of the market has been registered. If this were true, then there would be little use in our studying the theory.”

In May 2003 the Transports moved above their previous secondary reaction high point. This created a non-confirmation that lasted until June 2003. Then, in June 2003 the Industrials also moved above their previous secondary high point. This in turn produced a SECONDARY Dow theory confirmation once both averages were back in gear above the previous secondary reaction high points. This is what is often referred to as a buy signal, but in reality, it serves as confirmation of the trend. So, just as Rhea explained above, many confuse these confirmations with buy and sell signals.

-cut-

MISCONCEPTION #3
Longer periods of non-confirmation imply weaker underling market conditions.

I can understand the logic behind such thought. But, this is not true and not supported by Dow theory. Let me explain. As an example, in 1956 both the Industrials and the Transports made joint highs. It was not until late 1963 when the Transports bettered the 1956 high. During this 7 year period the Industrials advanced some 46%. It is for this reason that under classic Dow theory we use the most recent secondary high and low points as our reference points for trend confirmation. I have seen major tops and bottoms occur with only the slightest Dow theory non-confirmation. One example of this was the 1987 top; 1987 was a 4-year cycle top and we all know what happened after that top. Yet, we only saw 7 days of non-confirmation at the top. The important thing with Dow theory is the violation of the previous primary or secondary high or low point.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.55 Change -0.89 (-1.01%)

Support for yen and euro

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2004/10/10/nation/9094742&sec=nation

HANOI: Malaysia fully supports the proposal to use other globally accepted currencies like euro and yen as the main currency of trade, especially between Europe and Asia.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said the proposal was logical and something that received the support of many other countries.

“I think people would prefer to have a basket of currencies rather than being too dependent on the US dollar.

“Otherwise, if anything happens to US dollar, the rise and fall of that currency will have dire consequences on the trade of any nation that is too dependent on it,” he told an international press conference at the end of the Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem) summit here yesterday.

The use of euro and yen instead of the greenback was among the proposals at the Asia-Europe Business Summit held here in conjunction with Asem 5.

Abdullah, however, said this did not mean that there would be a total rejection of the US dollar but rather that there should be an option to use other major world currencies besides the greenback.

...more...

Triptease: High oil prices seen slowing down '05 spending

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/880655.cms

WASHINGTON: Top US economic forecasters are growing increasingly worried about the impact of surging oil prices on consumer and business spending in ’05, a survey released on Sunday showed.

However, most of the 51 economists polled by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey raised their estimates for ’04 growth after the commerce department revised up second-quarter gross domestic product growth to a 3.3% annual pace from a previously reported 2.8%.

The economists also cited optimism about third-quarter consumer and construction spending.

“A sharp upward revision in the government’s estimate of personal consumption expenditures in July and a solid rise in September vehicle sales hint of a sizeable acceleration in consumption during Q3 despite disruptions along the east coast due to repeated hurricanes,” the newsletter said.

The consensus forecast for ’04 growth rose to 4.4% from a 4.3% estimate in September’s newsletter. Some 55% of the forecasters raised their estimates for GDP growth in ’04.

...more...

Oil prices fail to dent US dollar

http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/47088.html

The glorious uncertainties of foreign exchange markets came into prominence during the past week, as currency markets which remained range bound, sprung into action following the release of a weaker-than-expected US jobs report for
September.
Optimistic comments from Fed officials were largely forgotten as market players pondered on the sustainability of the pace of economic growth in the United States following the latest jobs report which brought into light concerns of a weakening labour market.

As the country heads in to the upcoming presidential elections, the dollar looks poised for further losses largely due to the inconsistent economic numbers and a rise in oil prices fuelled by concerns over supply due to the ongoing crises in major oil producing countries including Iraq, Nigeria and Russia.

...more...

No Simple Solutions to Pension Problems

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19282-2004Oct9.html

The grim news coming out of the airline and steel industries about their pension plans and the government agency that insures them is giving Congress, along with older workers across the nation, a sudden case of the jitters.

"We gotta do something" is the phrase du jour on Capitol Hill, and senators and representatives are calling hearings and wringing their hands over the problem.

But as with so many issues today, there are no easy answers. There are lots of proposals and recommendations, but while many would be effective in addressing the part of the problem they are aimed at, they would have side effects -- collateral damage, to use the recently popular term -- that might outweigh their benefits.

Here's a quick look at what's going on:

...more...

Loonie breaks 80 cents US

http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/WinnipegSun/Business/2004/10/09/661990.html

TORONTO -- A roaring jobs market in Canada and disappointing jobs data from the United States helped the Canadian dollar crack 80 cents US in trading yesterday for the first time in more than a decade. The Canadian dollar traded as high as 80.03 cents US in trading yesterday, before closing off its high for the day up 0.59 of a cent at 79.87 cents US. The loonie last closed above 80 cents US in March 1993.

The rise yesterday came as a better than expected report on jobs fuelled speculation that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates when it meets later this month.

"When we look at Canada's situation, the employment report for Canada definitely builds the case for another rate hike," said economist Carl Gomez of RBC Financial Group.

"On balance we're looking at monetary policy in Canada moving up to a more neutral level."

The Canadian employment report showed 43,000 jobs were created -- more than twice the level expected -- while the jobless rate eased a tenth of a point to 7.1%.

"Canada surprised on the upside after three consecutive downswings," Gomez said.

...more...

No reports due until MaeveDay :)

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

27. U.S. Dollar beginning to look ill

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge101104.html

Where Do We Go From Here?

In all honesty, we haven't the foggiest. In the short run, market irrationality can reign. The stock market has a funny way of sucking in the maximum amount of people before heading south to cause the maximum amount of pain. Rest assured, the pain will come; the only question is when.

We could point out that the VIX near 13 is at six-year lows. We could point out that earnings warnings have accelerated as the markets in aggregate trade at very rich multiples. We could point out the mounting signs of out of control inflation despite what those worthless government CPI numbers spew. We could point out that if history is any judge, and absent some sort of horrific deflationary scenario, rates have one way to go (up) over the coming years, which historically kills P/E ratios as earnings are discounted by larger numbers, making asset class shifts to bonds more attractive. We could point out the frothy behavior in today's market, which is more indicative of a top and not a bottom. How else can you explain the revival of mindless speculation in stocks such as Taser rallying on its near daily press releases or the other heavily shorted net moon-shots in recent weeks which have lifted the TheStreet.com Internet Index up 30% over the last year and seen most net stock indices triple since their post-bubble bottom? We could point out the egregious amount of debt at the consumer level and mention the monumental trade imbalances, which have so endangered the safety of the U.S. dollar. We could point all of this out and it still may not matter - for awhile.

snip>

The American public may be clueless, but foreign investors and central banks aren't so dim-witted. In fact, a number of countries including China, Japan and Russia have publicly stated their desire to diversify their reserves out of the U.S. dollar and into Euros or gold. Considering the amount of Greenbacks sitting in Asian central bank vaults, any significant diversification to another reserve currency would create a frightening flood of dollars in the open market.

So what could cause this currency reckoning to occur? There are many things that could lower confidence in the mighty greenback such as a terrorist attack, a stock-market crash or some other six-sigma event. However we think that the answer lies in this J-curve chart showing the exponentially increasing amount of personal, commercial and fiscal indebtedness incurred by the American people.

snip>

...Also keep on your calendar March 31, 2005 as it is the end of the Japanese fiscal year, which may further lessen Japan's appetite for U.S. debt securities.

[54anickel]

34. Only One Direction for the Dollar...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/gaffney101004.html

"U.S. Treasury Secretary, John Snow, said yesterday that China is "intent" on changing the peg. Conspiracy theorists are looking at the timing of the phone conversation between the two presidents and the U.S. election. 'Who knows what type of deal may has been made?'"

snip>

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' president, Robert McTeer, caused the dollar to weaken against the euro and yen with a speech that focused on the current account deficit. While overseas investors now "finance" the current account gap, "theoretically someday that process will come to an end, the flows will turn against us, and there will be a crisis that will result in rapidly rising interest rates and a rapidly depreciating dollar," McTeer said in a speech in New York.

Sounding like a Daily Pfennig reader, he stated, "Over time, there is only one direction for the dollar to go - lower." He is the third Fed official in a month to link the dollar and the deficit. Readers of the Pfenning have been hearing about these twin deficits for over a year now, but it looks like they are coming back, front and center.

Our trading partners at Deutsche Bank, #2 in the world of currency trading, forecasts the dollarto fall to $1.27 by year-end. "An inevitable adjustment of the U.S. current account deficit will entail significant dollar weakness," the bank's currency strategy team wrote in a monthly report today.

snip>

Rumors of a Chinese revaluation have caused the yen to finally start moving up vs. the U.S. dollar. Even though Chinese officials had denied any plans for a near-term revaluation, reports that President Bush had discussed the matter with Chinese President Hu Jintao only fueled speculation that a move is imminent. U.S. Treasury Secretary, John Snow, said yesterday that China is "intent" on changing the peg. Conspiracy theorists are looking at the timing of the phone conversation between the two presidents and the U.S. election. "Who knows what type of deal may has been made?" We will just have to wait and see...

[54anickel]

47. About that Bush/China discussion last week - GACK!

Bush Has Set Up China To Declare Economic War on America

http://www.opednews.com/prattAngie_093004_china.htm

snip>

From an economic perspective, the points that makes Jiang Ruiping's statement true simultaneously explain that the United States is an impotent tiger. The fact of the matter is that the only thing keeping the dollar afloat right now is American credibility.

The awful truth is that George Bush has done more single-handedly than any other person to diminish the world's faith in the United States . Our moral high ground has been trashed. Our financial future highjacked by tax cuts to the wealthy and uncontrolled spending.

The problem is that Jiang Ruiping's suggested course of action is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The moment China stops taking American dollars is the instant that the American dollar will collapse.

Now why would China take such steps. As Jiang Ruiping suggests, China might take these steps to attempt to reduce the impact of a dollar collapse on China . Jiang Ruiping masterfully explains the risk what a collapse in the dollar poses to China . It literally would cost them 100's of billions.

Another more nefarious reason goes back to the fact that China and the United States are competitors. When do you hit a competitor? Do you hit him when he's strong and competent? Or do you hit him when he's weak and has limited options? Make no mistakes; China does not wish us well.

more...

[UpInArms]

50. you know I didn't feel good about that issue

and now I feel even worse.

I have been reading where the Carlyle Group has been doing a lot of investing in China of late.

This is just disturbing (understatement).

[54anickel]

53. Yep, I've given up on speculating what might be going on. I just got a

bad feeling.

[UpInArms]

54. here's the last newsblurb on Carlyle/China

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2004/10/8/business/9072510&sec=business

SHANGHAI: Carlyle Group, the world’s third largest buyout firm, plans to increase investments in China to more than US$1bil as the pace of state asset sales picks up and more private start-ups seek capital.

The Washington-based fund, which has US$150mil invested in China, aimed to have as much as 60% of the assets of its Asian funds invested in the country within a “few years”, Wayne Tsou, Hong Kong-based head of Asia ventures, said in a telephone interview. China investments will be made by three Asian funds, which plan to more than double their assets in the next year from US$1.1bil currently. – Bloomberg

[54anickel]

57. Interesting Chinese Op/ed on Shrub

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-08/07/content_363061.htm

snip>

How about oil? Iraq has major oil reserves; control over them by changing its regime by force will control oil supply, and hence its pricing into the future. Control of oil pricing determines the rate of progress of emerging communist regimes such as Russia and China. Anything which can hold them to proxy ransom will be in the self-interest of a unilateral US.

How about post-war contracts? Bush and the White House have quickly shed their commercial links to Osama's business circle and replaced it with The Carlyle Group, Halliburton, Bechtel etc, whose contributions are as necessary for the Republicans' election war chest, as are those from McDonnell Douglas, General Electric, General Dynamics, Raytheon, Hughes etc.

9/11 provided the reason to take preemptive unilateral action to flex sole superpower muscle. Bush has just approved USD174 Billion to spend on beefing up its military prowess over Afghanistan, Iraq and yonder defense shield. But he forgets one thing - when you do things that create threats to other countries, their people will not sit still; as much as he thinks he has an obligation to the US people, others in other countries will also think they have equal obligation to theirs. Walking out of the ABM disarmament agreement, priming all aircraft carrier fleets simultaneously across the globe, siding Israel before even talking to the Palestinians, sanctioning a Taiwan Act that has no international rationale but only increases tensions in the region, threatening North Korea with movement of stealth planes, spy-planning over the Chinese territorial waters, telling the Chinese people on the island of Taiwan that he(Bush) will do 'whatever it takes' to security them - these are some remarkably obtuse and short-sighted moves that Bush has made since he took office.

Which leaves one to ask, if he really graduated from Harvard and has had diplomatic postings before in other countries, why hasn't he learnt anything beyond his better/houlier-than-thou attitude? :evilgrin:

More...

[UpInArms]

58. ewwwww! that was one unhappy columnist!

But he forgets one thing - when you do things that create threats to other countries, their people will not sit still; as much as he thinks he has an obligation to the US people, others in other countries will also think they have equal obligation to theirs. Walking out of the ABM disarmament agreement, priming all aircraft carrier fleets simultaneously across the globe, siding Israel before even talking to the Palestinians, sanctioning a Taiwan Act that has no international rationale but only increases tensions in the region, threatening North Korea with movement of stealth planes, spy-planning over the Chinese territorial waters, telling the Chinese people on the island of Taiwan that he(Bush) will do 'whatever it takes' to security them - these are some remarkably obtuse and short-sighted moves that Bush has made since he took office.

and that last paragraph definitely sounded a bit threatening

One more point; if you create a defense shield, people will build smaller, portable, nuclear devices which can be dissembled and reassembled inland. You can't protect your entire sea/land front. So what's homeland security? Remember, the US is an urban/city-based economy.

[54anickel]

59. Threatening, yet true. Scary coming from a country that makes lots

and lots of little "gadgets".

[UpInArms]

3. Snow Expects Arab Help Against Oil Prices

http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/ap/2004/10/10/ap1584266.html

Oil costing roughly $53 a barrel is a major drag on the U.S. economy, and Arab finance ministers have told the Bush administration they are committed to bringing the price down, Treasury Secretary John Snow said Sunday.

Snow said the need is urgent because sky-high gasoline prices in effect impose an undeclared tax on Americans so dependent on petroleum products.

"I just left a series of meetings with Middle Eastern finance ministers, where we put on the table the need for expansion of output in quotas," Snow said.

"I must say that we got a very good response on that, and they've indicated that they are committed to bringing the price of oil down," the Treasury chief told CNN's "Late Edition."

Snow hosted a meeting of those ministers earlier this month in Washington.

Because of the current record high prices, oil "is creating headwinds for the otherwise very strong economy," Snow said. "It acts like a tax, taking disposable income away from people."

<snip>

"The president sent to the Congress three years ago legislation to make us less dependent on these uncertain foreign supplies," Snow said. "It passed the House twice; it's time for the Senate to act."

The proposal is given little chance of passage. Democrats and moderate Republicans reject the bill because it would do nothing to promote fuel economy.

...more...

[54anickel]

5. HEH! Did you get that thought of the day banner when you first hit

the Forbes site for that article?

A hated government does not last long. - Seneca

Weird...any way, is Snow talking about Cheney's energy plan again there? I see they are still pushing for ANWR drilling.

snip>

Also, an administration proposal to recover oil from Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge has met strong opposition. The refuge represents the biggest untapped U.S. oil resource, but the Energy Department has acknowledged that production there would slow the growth of imports only modestly.

[ozymandius]

8. more drivel from Snow's rabbit hole logic

High oil prices create 'headwinds' for US economy: treasury secretary

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Record-high oil prices are a drag on the US economy, Treasury Secretary John Snow said, but predicted that prices would ease because current levels were out of line with market fundamentals.

-cut-

"The price is above what's justified by the fundamentals of the marketplace. It's out of line with the fundamentals, and there will be a movement back toward the fundamentals, which means a lower price," he said.


Oil prices gushed to new record highs above 53 dollar a barrel Friday in New York, pressured by fears of interrupted supplies from Nigeria and the Gulf of Mexico in a market straining to meet voracious global demand.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=2&u=/afp/20041010/bs_afp/us_oil_price&sid=96001027

Editor's note: Secretary Snow then threw his green velvet stovepipe hat into the air, bowed deeply as a bouquet of flowers popped out of his ass.

[54anickel]

4. Global: Canary in the Coal Mine

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041008-fri.html#anchor0

While financial markets have been relatively blasé about the unrelenting surge in oil prices, the global economy is not. Activity now seems to be sputtering in many segments of the world. That's true in Asia and Europe, although the US economy remains something of an outlier for now. But with oil prices at a flash point, resilience is likely to become an increasingly scarce commodity in a still-unbalanced and vulnerable global economy. The outlook for 2005 continues to darken.

Korea could be the "canary in the coal mine" — an early warning sign of what lies ahead for an increasingly vulnerable Asian economy and an increasingly unbalanced global economy. The recent Korean data flow simply looks terrible. External demand support is rolling over: Export comparisons (Y-o-Y) have decelerated by 13 percentage points in two months — from 36% in July to 23% in September. At the same time, domestic demand has weakened appreciably: Wholesale and retail sales, combined, were down 1.5% in August, and capital spending declined sequentially in August; moreover, a broad gauge of Korean service-industry production was down -1.7% in August (Y-o-Y). With demand conditions deteriorating, inventories are piling up (+3.5% Y-o-Y in August) — leading to cutbacks in industrial production (-0.6% sequentially in August) and declining employment (down 1.6% sequentially in August following a 0.3% drop in July). All this smacks of a Korean economy that is now on the brink of outright cyclical contraction. — underscoring significant downside risks to our 3.8% GDP growth forecast for 2005. For the Korean stock market, which is now up 22% from its early-August lows, this could come as a rude awakening.

Why dwell on Korea? For starters, Korea is Asia's third-largest economy behind Japan and China. It has long been one of Asia's most dynamic Tigers. Over the 1986 to 1995 interval, the Korean economy grew at an 8.5% average annual rate — more than three times average gains of 2.5% for the world's "advanced economies." While Korean growth slowed significantly to 4.6% over the 1996 to 2003 interval, even that relatively subdued pace was nearly double the 2.7% average growth rate of advanced economies over that period. Yet Korea now personifies all that's wrong with the Asian growth model. For starters, it suffers from an increasingly chronic weakness in private consumption — a by-product of a rapidly aging population that faces the twin pressures of unrelenting job insecurity and a huge pension problem. Lacking in domestic demand growth, Korea continues to rely on an export-oriented growth strategy. And now it has hooked its export machine to the fortunes of China; in 2003, the growth of Korean exports to China accounted for fully 45% of the total increase in Korean exports. What's especially interesting about the downturn in Korean exports is that it has yet to reflect the impacts of the China slowdown; the first leg of the export weakness appears to be driven more by the decline in semiconductor pricing. To the extent that the China slowdown gathers force, additional weakening of Korean exports is likely. And that will only tip the risks of this externally dependent economy further to the downside.

snip>

Noise or signal? That's always the question when the oft-volatile data flow lists one way or another. But I don't think it's a coincidence that signs of weakness are now popping up all over the world. With oil prices having sliced through the $50 WTI threshold without any difficulty, the possibility of a full-blown oil shock needs to be given increasingly serious consideration. I continue to hold the view that the oil price has to remain around $50 for at least three months to qualify as a legitimate shock; so far, it's been only about two weeks. But the combination of an oil shock and a vulnerable global economy is worrisome, in my view — underscoring the growing possibility of recession in 2005. I would currently place a 40% probability on such an outcome. I will raise that probability the longer the oil price stays around its current level. Meanwhile, the early warning signs of a cyclical downturn in the global economy are increasingly evident. A China-centric Asian economy is leading the way, and Korea appears to be first in line. With oil prices surging and the China slowing likely to gather force, I suspect this canary in the coal mine is providing a strong hint of what lies ahead for the rest of Asia and the broader global economy.

more...

[KoKo]

29. I wonder about the expected price rise in Commidities we are hearing

so much about..not gold and silver, but all the copper, aluminum, steel, wood products and tin that the Asian Markets, particularly China were going to need for their building boom. If we go into a recession here in US and spending slows by consumers purchasing "cheap" foreign imports then less imports mean less income for the Asians, wouldn't it? So will the "building commodities" really be taking off given a slow down?

With the Chinese purchase of Noranda in Canada it does make me wonder if the "Gold Standard" is on their minds, but will they need so many other commondities if their economy winds down? And what about all the treasuries they hold?

It's hard to "read between the lines" about what we are going to be facing here at home and in the Global Economy with so much conflicting info out there. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

6. Fannie Mae Salaries Rile Hill

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22982-2004Oct10.html

During a packed hearing on Fannie Mae's accounting practices last week, Rep. Richard H. Baker (R-La.), a leading critic of the District-based mortgage finance company, displayed a poster-size chart of the compensation of 22 of its top executives.

The document showed that 20 of the individuals received more than $1 million each in total compensation in 2002. Twelve received more than $2 million. Nine received more than $3 million. Some lawmakers were outraged at the compensation. Others were outraged at Baker for making it public in a confrontation with Fannie's chairman and chief executive, Franklin D. Raines.

Raines protested that the release of the information was an invasion of privacy and would provide a road map for recruiters trying to raid Fannie Mae's talent. The company had fought to keep the information private, hiring Kenneth W. Starr, the attorney who investigated President Bill Clinton, in the effort.

<snip>

Baker, who chairs the subcommittee on capital markets, said in an interview after the hearing that he wanted to show fellow lawmakers "the scope of the benefits being paid to these executives for an entity created by the Congress which is intended to help low-income people get access to housing."

<snip>

Unlike most other companies, Fannie is able to borrow money at discounted rates because many investors believe that the government would prop it up in a financial crisis. According to the Congressional Budget Office, that advantage saves Fannie and Freddie billions of dollars annually. They are also exempt from state and local taxes.

<snip>

Perhaps the most eye-catching number in the package Baker released was one that Fannie had previously disclosed in a little-noticed footnote in a report filed with the SEC. Last year, Fannie paid an $80,000 initiation fee for its vice chairman and chief operating officer, Daniel H. Mudd, to join a private club.

...more...

[ozymandius]

9. Starr is staying busy.

Now that I see him referenced in keeping the information about Fannie Mae's talent pool secret, he is also on retainer by the New York Times to keep Judith Miller's government insider contacts from being 'outed'.

[54anickel]

19. Funds Get Hit by Fannie Mae Selloff

http://www.thestreet.com/funds/gregggreenberg/10185152.html

After a turmoil-filled week, every Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE - commentary - research) shareholder knows how it feels to hold a crumbling stock.

But as always, some are feeling more pain than others. A look at which mutual funds were the biggest holders of Fannie at the end of last quarter can help you, humble mutual fund investor, figure out how badly you may have fared in the recent tumult.

snip>

The darkening clouds forming over Fannie have hit individual shareholders hardest, of course. Even so, investors in many mutual funds will have felt the impact of the selloff too, as many funds have big stakes in this widely held Wall Street favorite.

snip past list of funds and their holdings>

In terms of total Fannie shares, the Washington Mutual Investors fund is the largest holder of stock at over 21 million shares, or 2.2% of Fannie's outstanding stock.

Morningstar, which also provides independent research on individual stocks, says it remains positive on Fannie Mae's business model despite the cloud over its accounting. Morningstar analyst Ryan Batchelor says he believes the company's primary growth driver, mortgage debt outstanding, remains strong. Nevertheless, Morningstar has suspended its individual stock rating on Fannie "because of our lack of confidence in the financial statements needed to accurately value the business."

more...

[UpInArms]

7. Permanent Job Proves An Elusive Dream

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A22773-2004Oct10?language=printer

excerpt:

Hicks is among the ranks of what economists call the "contingent" workforce, the vast and growing pool of workers tenuously employed in jobs that once were stable enough to support a family. In a single generation, "contingent employment arrangements" have begun to transform the world of work, not only for temp workers, but also for those in traditional jobs who are competing with a tier of employees receiving lower pay and few, if any, benefits.

The rise of that workforce has become another factor undermining the type of middle-wage jobs, paying about the national average of $17 per hour and carrying health and retirement benefits, that have kept the nation's middle-class standard of living so widely available.

Hicks has spent four years as a temp worker building cars for Toyota Motor Corp., making manifolds and dashboards for Camrys, Avalons and Solaras sold all over the United States. He works alongside full-fledged Toyota employees who earn twice his salary, plus health and retirement benefits.

When Toyota announced it would be coming to Georgetown, Ky., in 1985, it promised to invest $800 million in the community and employ thousands, with thousands more jobs coming through its suppliers. By 1997, the plant exceeded all expectations, with 7,689 full-time workers, a payroll over $470 million, and a ripple effect creating more than 34,000 other jobs in the Bluegrass state.

But by 2000, Toyota was carefully controlling any additions to the workforce. When Hicks left his family in Knott County, Ky., to seek work at the plant 140 miles away, the only door left open was through a temporary agency, Manpower Inc. At $12.60 an hour, the job would not even let him afford the $199-a-week health insurance premium for his family of five. But Hicks said Manpower assured him that after a year -- two at the outside -- he would be on Toyota's payroll, earning $24.20 an hour, with health insurance, a dental plan, retirement benefits, incentive pay, the works.

...so much more worth reading... :(

[ozymandius]

12. I cannot pass up this opportunity to ridicule Bush.

[rfkrocks]

14. Great post-Shrub presiding over the end of the middle class

welcome to the prerevolution france-hope we can stop this bleeding and give people back stable employment

[UpInArms]

10. 9:37 numbers and pre-opening blather

Dow 10,076.81 +21.61 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,926.14 +6.17 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,125.22 +3.08 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.133% +0.000

Bond markets are closed today.

9:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Not quite a flat line for the futures trade this morning, but close to it as neither buyers nor sellers have shown much conviction... This lack of commitment is expected to translate into a relatively flat start for the cash market

8:52AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Oil prices keep inching higher (now +$0.30 at $53.61), which seems to be keeping a lid on buying interest in the futures market... Expectations for a relatively flat start for the cash market remain intact

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Subdued action in the futures market, which is indicating a relatively flat start for the cash market... Some notable ratings changes include Lehman Bros. upgrading Biogen Idec (BIIB) to Overweight from Equal Weight and Deutsche Securities downgrading Texas Instruments (TXN) and Micron (MU) to Sell from Hold; separately, CSFB is reiterating its Outperform rating on General Electric (GE)

8:08AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Not much in the way of market-moving news so there isn't much conviction in the futures market, which is suggesting a flat to slightly positive start for the cash market... Oil prices are hitting new highs north of $53/bbl, but haven't caused much slippage in sentiment this morning... As a reminder, the Treasury market is closed for Columbus Day

7:08AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Not much in the way of market-moving news so there isn't much conviction in the futures market, which is suggesting a flat to slightly positive start for the cash market...

[54anickel]

11. Interest-only loans drawing greater interest

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0410100323oct10,1,4069808.story?coll=chi-business-hed

Home buyers who want lower mortgage payments and a pricier house are fueling the interest-only loan craze.

The product, which lets you pay just the interest on a loan, isn't new, but mortgage brokers and banks have been seeing stronger demand as attitudes toward home loans have changed.

snip>

An interest-only loan is not an option for everyone. Here are two reasons to consider it, and two reasons to pass it up.

- On the move. An interest-only loan could be the way to go if you're not planning to stay for long in your home.

snip>

"If you're going to be short-terming, why even bother paying down principal?" DiMarco said.

- Sporadic cash flow. Interest-only mortgages may appeal if your income changes throughout the year because of bonuses and commissions. Just because you are paying interest doesn't mean you can't put money toward the principal. If one month you get a $3,000 bonus, you can kick that toward your principal and lower the amount you've borrowed.

- Equity. There are differing thoughts on building equity with an interest-only loan. If the home never increases in value, you won't build any equity by paying off just the interest. And you're underwater if the house depreciates, DiMarco said.

more...

[UpInArms]

13. why bother?

"If you're going to be short-terming, why even bother paying down principal?" DiMarco said.

- Sporadic cash flow. Interest-only mortgages may appeal if your income changes throughout the year because of bonuses and commissions. Just because you are paying interest doesn't mean you can't put money toward the principal. If one month you get a $3,000 bonus, you can kick that toward your principal and lower the amount you've borrowed.

just rent the damn thing if that's your attitude - higher costs for maintenance/repairs, taxes and insurance will eat up gobs of $$$

[54anickel]

20. Average rates for 30-year mortgages climb to highest level since September

http://www.freep.com/realestate/renews/mortgage10e_20041010.htm

Mortgage rates around the country went up last week, with 30-year mortgages climbing to the highest level since early September.

In its weekly survey released Thursday, Freddie Mac reported that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages rose to 5.82 percent for the week ending Oct. 7. That was up sharply from 5.72 percent last week and marked the highest rate since the week ending Sept. 9, when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.83 percent.

This year rates on 30-year mortgages hit a high of 6.34 percent the week of May 13. They had drifted down as economic activity cooled in the late spring and early summer and inflation fears receded.

But rates rose in the past two weeks, reflecting investors' growing belief that the economy has emerged from its soft spot and is gaining some traction.

"The financial market thinks we've passed the 'soft patch' in the economy, which would translate into stronger growth in the coming months," said Amy Crews Cutts, an economist with Freddie Mac. "Stronger growth means a greater threat of inflation and that means interest rates will start to rise in response to the threat." :eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

15. Oil stocks higher as crude marches toward $54

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38271.4038657407-823232658&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

DALLAS (CBS.MW) -- Shares of oil stocks rose in early Monday trading as crude futures neared $54 a barrel on supply concerns related to labor strikes in two key exporting countries. The Amex Oil Index ($XOI) gained 0.1 percent to 719.72 and the Amex Natural Gas Index ($XNG) was up 0.2 percent at 276.84. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX) declined by 0.2 percent to 123.41.

Bandar Bush better hurry!

Saudi Arabia may expand oil capacity by 30%

http://www.aljazeera.com/cgi-bin/news_service/middle_east_full_story.asp?service_id=5079

Saudi Arabia may boost output capacity by 30 percent within two years in order to prevent shortages, the country's oil minister said.

“We're investing $2.5 billion a year to boost output capacity,'' Ali al-Naimi said.

The kingdom is “willing to do what it takes to satisfy demand.'' The country can increase its limit by 3.2 million barrels to more than 14 million barrels a day, if that is needed, al- Naimi said, adding that 69 percent of the new supply would be so-called light or extra light oil, which are most in demand.

...more...

[54anickel]

16. Despite Piles of Cash, Businesses Get Stingy About Spending - WSJ ($

Saw that headline at Prudent Bear, I just had to go find the article and share it...

If consumers falter, so will the U.S. economy -- unless business- investment spending picks up the slack. But businesses are behaving strangely. After declining in 2001 and 2002, investment spending finally turned up in the spring of 2003 and has been increasing since then. Shipments of U.S.-made machines, computers, furniture, airplanes and other capital goods in the first eight months of 2004 were 12% above year-earlier levels, and revenues of high-tech suppliers such as Cisco Systems Inc. and Intel Corp. are up sharply. But business isn't spending nearly as much as swollen profits and the pile of cash in corporate coffers suggest it should -- despite a temporary tax break Congress enacted after Sept. 11, 2001, to spur such spending.

"Business investment has not been as strong as one might have expected," Gregory Mankiw, chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, said last week. "There are a lot of uncertainties associated with terrorism, associated with corporate scandals, associated with oil prices have all affected business confidence and, therefore, have kept businesses a little gun shy on investment."

Erica Groshen, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, says, "Normally firms in the U.S. borrow money to invest." But now, she says, they're "sitting on a pot of money and they're not investing. It suggests continued caution in hiring and investment-both here and abroad."

Liquid assets of U.S. corporations outside farming and finance stood at $1.27 trillion (1.023 trillion euros) on June 30, the Commerce Department says, more than $300 billion higher than two years ago. Corporate cash makes up nearly 11% of gross domestic product, higher than at any time since 1959.

"Is this a source of a surge in business investment just around the corner?" Ms. Groshen asks. "Or is it a signal of deep pessimism about investment possibilities?" She isn't sure.

snip>

One worry is that investment spending will sag after the Dec. 31 expiration of a temporary tax break Congress gave companies that buy equipment, computers or other investments. But it isn't clear how much difference the tax break has made, and thus how much its expiration will hurt.

For the past couple of years, American consumers -- the mainstay of the global economy for the past few years -- have spent sufficiently to keep the economy turning. Each time consumers cut back, it has prompted warnings that Americans are finally choosing to save more and spend less. But then consumer spending has promptly rebounded. The latest data suggest inflation-adjusted consumer spending grew at a healthy, inflation-adjusted annual pace of about 4% in the third quarter, mainly because car sales were strong.

snip>

Auto sales -- along with housing -- have been a key driver of the U.S. economy since Sept. 11. But the auto industry may be running out of room to maneuver, says Robert Schnorbus, chief economist at market researcher J.D. Power & Associates. U.S. car makers have had to push vehicle incentives ever-higher, increasing rebates to $3,385 per vehicle from $1,540 in 2001. Yet industrywide sales are projected to be lower in 2004 (16.7 million cars and light tracks) than in 2001 (17.2 million). "It is getting harder and harder to find that next marginal buyer," says Mr. Schnorbus.

snip>

The global economy could yet rescue the U.S. For years, demand from U.S. consumers has kept the world economy going, widening the U.S. trade deficit as Americans' appetite for imports outstrips demand for American wares abroad and foreigners invest about $1.8 billion of their savings in the U.S. every day. Most economists, including Mr. Greenspan, think the world would be an economically safer place if American consumers saved a bit more and consumers in other countries spent a bit more.

Greenspin is once again looking to "export" our economic woes?

[54anickel]

17. In hindsight, we might have done things differently

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

The authors of that satellite report should take some notes from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. That’s right; unlike the Fed Chairman who could spend twenty minutes ordering a scotch and soda and still leave the bartender confused, Mr. Ferguson got right to the point in his speech this week to National Bankers Association members. The topic was “savings,” which is a pretty good topic if you have to attend a bankers’ association meeting, and certainly better than listening to some compliance guy drone on about the latest regulatory plague. Also surprisingly, at least given Mr. Greenspan’s fondness for ginning up a billion in credit here or there, the Vice Chairman was actually “for savings.” In fact, the VC called savings “important” as opposed to “something that people do while waiting to close on their vacation homes.”

Remarkably, Mr. Ferguson reviewed the recent history of the U.S. savings rate, which happens to have a history much like a rock dropped from atop a cliff, without making a bunch of excuses for it. You know, the excuses about why it’s really not that big a deal that so many of us are buying flat screen TVs instead of socking money away in the event of a rainy day, like retirement. There are excuses like “Well, with all the corporate retirement plans, people don’t really need to save,” an argument you don’t hear as much now that every company but two has switched to defined contribution plans, and the two that haven’t are hoping that the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation can bail them out before the PBGD itself goes belly up.

No sir, the V.C. came right out and said that since the early 1980s, the personal savings rate has fallen to 1.5% of disposable income down from about 11%. He even said that the paltry savings rate could have “have important implications for the ability of the country to finance investment in plants and equipment.”

snip>

That’s not to say the V.C. didn’t present “some economists'” views of why the plunging savings rate isn’t as bad as it looks. First, there’s the old line about how rising real estate and stocks prices mean that households don’t have to save as much. This would be a great argument to make at a realtors’ meeting, but if the V.C. were pushing that argument to the bankers, at least a couple of them would stop looking at their watches long enough to jump up and say, “Sure, real estate prices are going up, and even net worth is going up, but net worth as a percent of assets is falling, which makes us bankers a little nervous. And then there’s that whole real estate bubble thing which might have something to say about real estate values when it goes the way of Dr. Koop.com.” Mr. Ferguson called this “alternative savings” argument the “most popular” rationalization about low savings rates. Some bankers in the audience probably remembered that pet rocks were once popular too.

snip>

And then there’s the “in Washington we trust” argument that says people figure Social Security and Medicare will see them through retirement, and besides, the new car comes with a DVD player right in the back of the headrest.

more...

[KoKo]

31. Ha! This sort of reminds me of a "Mogambo" rant on tranquilizers....

We are getting close to "Theater of the Absurd" with the "predictions" of the Bankers, Wall St.Crowd, Fed and Bush Administration whako's and it's good to read folks on Prudent Bear and Financial Sense who are as frustrated with their ravings as some of us here are. :crazy:

A fun read.

[UpInArms]

18. 10:12 numbers and blather

Dow 10,076.44 +21.24 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,921.82 +1.85 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,124.00 +1.86 (+0.17%)

10:00AM: Equities back off their initial levels as buyers exercise a sense of caution... The persistently high price of crude oil, along with a Q3 (Sept) reporting season that will pick up tomorrow with Merrill Lynch (MER 51.19 +0.07) and Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ 55.15 -0.17) releases, has caused traders to pause... Presently, brokerage, biotech, cyclical, basic material, and telecom service are leading the market, while energy, transportation, and semiconductor are serving to undercut those gains...

The latter has traveled south after an initial uptick at the start following a Deutsche Securities' downgrade of both Texas Instruments (TXN 21.54 -0.51) and Micron (MU 11.66 -0.35) to Sell...SOX -0.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1474/878, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1367/959

9:40AM: Stock market gets a bit of a boost at the open - most of it brought on by the indices' 0.8-1.3% pullback last week... Traders have taken advantage of some of the hardest hit areas - biotech, drug, and semiconductor - as potential bargain-hunting opportunities... Buyers have not emerged in mass, however, as another rise in the price of crude oil (to $53.62/bbl) has caused apprehension... The failure of peace talks in Nigeria last Friday, combined with the surge in natural gas prices to 5-month highs, has kept the commodity on its upward trek...

As a reminder, the bond market is closed today in observance of Columbus Day, and thus trading in US equities should probably be lighter than usual...

[54anickel]

21. LG Philips sees sharp fall in flat panel prices

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1720111e-1b62-11d9-8af6-00000e2511c8.html

LG Philips LCD, the world’s second-largest liquid crystal display maker, said Monday flat panel prices would fall by 10-15 per cent in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter as global production moved into surplus.

The gloomy forecast came after the flat screen maker reported a 20 per cent fall in LCD prices and weaker than expected demand for large-sized flat panel TVs in the three months to end-September.

snip>

Global producers are spending billions of dollars on increasing flat screen production capacity but sales of the expensive TVs have fallen short of forecasts.

The industry leader, Samsung Electronics, is expected to also report disappointing quarterly results at the end of this week because of weak flat screen sales.

snip>

Increasing signs of a supply glut have prompted Taiwanese LCD makers such as AU Optronics and Chi Mei Optoelectronics to delay or stop construction of new plants. But LG Philips LCD said it had no plans to reduce its output, even though inventory was building up.

snip>

LCD makers shipped 4m panels more than needed in the third quarter, which resulted in “extreme pricing pressure”, according to researcher DisplaySearch. About 10 plants are set to come online within a year, which will increase the industry’s capacity more than 50 per cent, Merrill Lynch said.

[54anickel]

22. Card marketer takes swipe at younger spenders (Start 'em young!)

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2840641

The popular Hello Kitty brand -- commonly found on stationery, purses, pajamas and other items for children -- will soon start appearing on a new platform: a MasterCard debit card.

snip>

The prospective audience? The young women who grew up with the 30-year-old icon, as well as much younger girls. "We think our target age group will be from 10 to 14, although it could certainly go younger," said Bruce Giuliano, senior vice president of licensing for Sanrio, which owns the brand.

Because only parents (or at least anyone older than 18) can sign up for the card, Hello Kitty thinks it's a great way for adults to "help teach their children how to manage their finances," Giuliano said. Next up, he added, is a prepaid Hello Kitty cell phone.

The card, due out in a few weeks, is the latest example of how corporations aggressively court the $30 billion-a-year youth market. Until recently, financial institutions pretty much ignored this powerhouse of spenders. The Hello Kitty card shows those days are gone.

"Children are now open game, prey to many financial institutions in this country," said Joline Godfrey, author of Raising Financially Fit Kids and chief executive of Independent Means, a California financial-education firm. "Financial institutions used to be pretty conservative members of the community, preaching balanced budgets, homeownership and savings. Over the course of time, they have become more partners with retailers, teaching children how to spend and consume." As a result, she said, the cards become a "great educational tool ... to say to kids, `Spend, spend, spend, buy, buy, buy.' "

more :wtf:...

[UpInArms]

26. GACK!!!

"We think our target age group will be from 10 to 14, although it could certainly go younger,"

Buy Buy Buy!!! Spend! Spend! Spend!

Up is down, black is white, war is peace. :(

[KoKo]

33. Maybe this will only appeal to the "Forbes" crowd of Parents? Those new

Billionair and Millionaire parents that "Forbes Mag" likes to tout.

I don't know who else can afford "Hello Kitty" cell phones and debit cards in America. :eyes: But, as P.T. Barnum said: "There's a sucker born......"

[UpInArms]

23. Stocks Open Up After Poor Jobs Report

http://www.forbes.com/business/manufacturing/feeds/ap/2004/10/11/ap1584373.html

Stocks bobbed higher at Monday's open after two sessions of heavy selling driven by surging oil prices and a disappointing employment report.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 27.36, or 0.3 percent, at 10,082.56.

Broader market measures also rose. The Nasdaq composite index was up 4.50, or 0.2 percent, at 1,924.47, and the Standard and Poor's 500-stock index was up 2.44, or 0.2 percent, at 1,124.58.

In energy futures trading, oil prices were hovering slightly higher than Friday's record finish above $53 a barrel.

While most U.S. financial markets were not closed for Columbus Day, there were no major economic or earnings reports due Monday. The early tide of reports on the just-ended quarter was slated to begin Tuesday.

<snip>

"Investors seem to be as confused about the direction of the stock market as voters are about the outcome of next month's election," said Dick Dickson, market analysts for Lowry Research.

...more...

at 10:35 EST - cute spike going on :shrug:

Dow 10,088.75 +33.55 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,922.90 +2.93 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,124.10 +1.96 (+0.17%)

[54anickel]

24. Exxon, Chevron named in Iraqi probe

Wonder if this might be just the tip of the iceberg. How long before Hellaburnin joins the list? :shrug:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/11/news/fortune500/iraq_oil/index.htm

Newspaper says major oil companies listed in report detailing abuses in oil-for-food program.
October 11, 2004: 8:08 AM EDT



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A report on potential abuses in Iraq's former oil-for-food program named Exxon Mobil, ChevronTexaco and El Paso Corp. as companies associated with Saddam Hussein's efforts to flout sanctions, according to a report published Monday.

The report released by the Central Intelligence Agency identifies the oil companies as parties that allegedly received vouchers for Iraqi oil, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Officials added that receiving the vouchers, which are negotiable instruments that can be traded for oil, is not criminal in itself and that no one has been charged with an offense, the newspaper reported.

snip>

The CIA report estimates that the former Iraqi government illegally collected $11 billion by selling oil blow market price and receiving the difference through kickbacks, the newspaper reported.

bit more...

[KoKo]

25. Market Timer Astrologer, Ray Merriman caves on Bush Win.. "Fear Factor"

(Merriman has thought Bush had a good chance of winning, in this latest article he explains why his view has changed)

Week of October 11

This does not look good for President George W. Bush. On the last unemployment and jobs data report before the election, the amount of new jobs reported on Friday, October 8 was surprisingly much less than expected by almost all economic forecasters. Although it probably proves that the Department of Labor does not “cook its books” for the President, it nevertheless gives Democrats a lot of ammunition in their claim that this is the first president since World War II to see a net loss of jobs on his watch. Still, since August of 2003, there have been 1.3 million new people put to work, which doesn't sound so bad.

But the U.S. stock market's response to this much weaker than expected jobs number was very worrisome. From a high of 10,270 on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 10,036 intraday on Friday, and closed just slightly off those weekly lows. The DJIA continues to exhibit lower highs and lower lows of the same cycle type, and that is a characteristic of a bear market. And a bear market going into the last three weeks of the election puts George W. Bush at odds with history on his re-election chances. As discussed many times before in this weekly report, there is a “Pre-Presidential Election Year” (PPEY) cycle trough that tends to form between October and March (sometimes May) prior to the U.S. presidential election. If that low is then taken out prior to the election, the incumbent party is defeated. The only time since 1944 that this correlation has failed was in 1984 when Ronald Reagan was re-elected by a landslide over Walter Mondale. But, interestingly enough, Reagan fell well behind Mondale after the first debate of that election. In fact, his performance was so utterly weak and he seemed so confused, that most voters wondered if “anyone was home?” He was that bad. But in the following debates, he recovered strongly, and so did the stock market, as he ended up coasting to a large victory.

There can still be similarities today. In 1984, the PPEY low occurred in February, and was taken out in the last week of July. The market then soared 15% into the election. In 2004, the PPEY low occurred in either March or May (take your pick), but both were taken out with a lower low in August. Afterwards, the market began to rally, but unlike in 1984, it hasn't yet taken out the high in between the PPEY low and the one that followed. But like in 1984, the incumbent, a Republican president, performed miserably in his first debate, looking confused, redundant, and worn down. And now we await and see if his subsequent performance can recover strongly, like Reagan did in 1984. And more importantly, can the DJIA rally back up to at least 10,450-10,500 before the election? If so, this stock market indicator will tip back in favor of President Bush. If not, then it favors a John Kerry victory.

But that is only the “stock market” indicator. And one indicator alone is not enough upon which to base a conclusion. There are many astrological factors to consider too, I think. For one, I have stated several times that with Saturn in Cancer, the U.S. population is likely to voting on “fear,” and not confidence. And I have assumed that this collective psychology favors George Bush, just like it did Franklin Roosevelt in 1940. Back then, the market kept making lower highs and lower lows too, and Roosevelt was re-elected. I believe that was because the economy was not the biggest concern to Americans. National Security was. The country voted on fear, and didn't want to make a change with such tension in the world. Roosevelt offered a steady hand and assurance that he was the one best suited to lead this country through those difficult and dangerous times.

Until last week's debate, I think the American people thought the same about George W. Bush and Richard Cheney. The Republican duo was far ahead in the polls, and threatening a run away victory. But with the first debate all that changed. And it changed coincident with the “Great Libra Ingress” of September 22-28, when Sun, Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter all moved into Libra together. Such an important ingress (Libra is a cardinal sign), is indicative of shift in collective consciousness. The mood suddenly changes. Instead of seeing the Bush-Cheney ticket as the best to lead this country in a threat to national security, the public suddenly saw John Kerry as the more attractive candidate. Instead of showing massive support for the judgments about the war on terror led by Bush-Cheney, the pubic suddenly began to doubt their good judgment. And in a matter of one week, the Bush lead has evaporated, and Kerry is either leading or tied with the President in most polls. And with the downgrade of the president's popularity in these polls, so fell the stock market in the U.S. The election is far from over, but the “Great Libra Ingress” has turned the tide of public sentiment in a very dramatic fashion.

http://www.stariq.com/MarketWeek.HTM

[UpInArms]

28. from his lips to all the gods' and goddesses' ears

Until last week's debate, I think the American people thought the same about George W. Bush and Richard Cheney. The Republican duo was far ahead in the polls, and threatening a run away victory. But with the first debate all that changed. And it changed coincident with the “Great Libra Ingress” of September 22-28, when Sun, Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter all moved into Libra together. Such an important ingress (Libra is a cardinal sign), is indicative of shift in collective consciousness. The mood suddenly changes. Instead of seeing the Bush-Cheney ticket as the best to lead this country in a threat to national security, the public suddenly saw John Kerry as the more attractive candidate. Instead of showing massive support for the judgments about the war on terror led by Bush-Cheney, the pubic suddenly began to doubt their good judgment. And in a matter of one week, the Bush lead has evaporated, and Kerry is either leading or tied with the President in most polls. And with the downgrade of the president's popularity in these polls, so fell the stock market in the U.S. The election is far from over, but the “Great Libra Ingress” has turned the tide of public sentiment in a very dramatic fashion.

[UpInArms]

30. Global Crossing stock plunges - cuts 600 jobs

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B59D284BD%2DF6E2%2D4651%2DB076%2D3EC2E956984C%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Shares of Global Crossing sank 25 percent on Monday after the company said it needs more money to finance its operations until the end of the year.

Late Friday, the company said it plans to eliminate 600 jobs, or roughly 15 percent of its workforce, by March 2005 as part of another move to cut costs.

The company also said it needs an additional $40 million in to fund its liquidity requirements through the end of 2004. In additon, Global Crossing revised some past financial results.

In recent trades, shares of Global Crossing (GLBCE: news, chart, profile) were down $4.04 at $11.84. The company emerged from bankruptcy protection last December.

The Florham Park, N.J.-based telecommunications services provider said cash flow for the second quarter was negative. As of June 30, it had $139 million in cash and cash equivalents, and it believes liquidity will continue to decline substantially for the rest of the year.

...more...

history flashbacks:

http://www.pointsoflight.org/awards/gba/winner2000.cfm

PAST WINNERS

ome > Awards > George Bush Corporate Leadership Award
2001 Winner

Lodwrick Cook
Co-Chairman, Global Crossing Limited

Co-Chairman, Asia Global Crossing Ltd.

Chairman, Global Marine Systems

Vice-Chairman and Managing Director, Pacific Capital Group

Pacific Capital Group, Inc. Lodwrick (Lod) Cook became co-chairman of Global Crossing Ltd. in 1998 and chairman, Global Marine Systems, a wholly owned subsidiary of Global Crossing, in 1999. In April 2000 he became Co-Chairman of Asia Global Crossing Ltd.

Through its Global Marine Systems subsidiary, which Mr. Cook chairs, Global Crossing owns the largest fleet of cable laying and maintenance vessels in the world and currently services more than a third of the world's undersea cable miles.

Mr. Cook also serves as vice-chairman and managing director of Pacific Capital Group, which he joined in September 1997. Pacific Capital played a principal role in the founding of Global Crossing and continues to invest in the real estate, financial services, media, health care, and telecommunication industries.

Prior to joining Pacific Capital Group and Global Crossing, Mr. Cook had a 39-year distinguished career at Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO), the 7th largest U.S. oil company. He began in 1956 as an engineer trainee and went on to hold management positions in labor relations, refining, marketing, planning, supply and transportation and was elected vice president in 1970. He became president and chief Executive Officer of ARCO in October 1985 and during this time served as chairman of the Owners' Committee of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. He became chairman and CEO in January 1986 and upon retirement in June 1995, became Chairman Emeritus.

Mr. Cook's philanthropy has had a particular focus on education, youth and minority programs. His national and international volunteer work includes serving as a Trustee of the George Bush Presidential Library Foundation, Director of the Louisiana State University Alumni Association and a member of the Chancellor's Court of Benefactors of Oxford University in England. He is a former member of the Board of Advisors of the Carter Center of Emory University and former Chairman and current director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation. His California community interests include serving as a member of the Library Foundation of Los Angeles (of which he is Founder Chairman) and Life Regent of Pepperdine University. Mr. Cook has also had a long association with Junior Achievement and serves on the Southern California Board of Governors and is director emeritus - National Junior Achievement. This year he was inducted into the J.A. Business Hall of Fame. In November 1994, upon appointment by Her Majesty the Queen, Mr. Cook was invested by The Prince of Wales with the insignia of Honorary Knight Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (KBE) for his contribution to Anglo-American relations and support for philanthropic projects around the world. In February 2001 Lod was presented with the first George Bush Corporate Leadership Award by the Points of Light Foundation for his leadership role in supporting employee volunteerism and corporate citizenship.

...more...

http://www.laborers.org/BusinessWk_GloblBush_3-4-02.htm

Bush Sr. Profitable Crossing

By Richard S. Dunham and Mike McNamee

March 4, 2002

President Bush may complain that his mother-in-law took a hit on her Enron stock, but it seems his dad made a tidy profit on that other notorious bankruptcy, Global Crossing.

In 1999 and 2000, the elder Bush pocketed more than 4.5 million by selling Global Crossing stock, according to the Securities & Exchange Commission documents obtained by Business Week.

His last sale came just before the weeks before the once high-flying telecom’s stock started tanking.

The elder Bush and his wife, Barbara, sold 100,000 Global Crossing shares on Nov. 16, 1999, for $4.45 million, according to the documents.

Then, the Bushes notified the SEC they were selling an additional 1,000 shares on March 13, 2000 for $55,000. The former first family had acquired at least 100,000 shares of Global Crossing stock as a private investment on April 21, 1998, the documents say.

Those shares may have been payments for speeches the elder Bush gave at Global Crossing conferences in Tokyo and Barcelona, in lieu of his usual $80,000 speaking fee.

Four months later, Global Crossing went public at $19 a share. (Global shares split two-for-one six months later.)

It’s not clear whether Bush invested money on top of those shares. Neither Bush’s spokesman nor the manager of his trust would comment. “I don’t talk to the press about private clients,” says Anthony Duke Jr., a managing director at Bessemer Trust, the Bush’s trustee.

...more...

[KoKo]

35. How these "guys" do get around. Winning awards, Director of this, Board

of that, VP of this, Head of this foundation, Benefactor of that....on and on and on. Meanwhile the Bush Family and Friends and their "hangers on" from previous Admins both Repug and Democrat get richer and richer and the world applauds their "great contributions" and "financial and entreprenuerial skills."

How do they have the time? And, why wasn't "Global Crossing" cleaned out back when it first imploded? Nevermind... :eyes:

[54anickel]

32. Fahrenheit - Gold and Oil

Gotta wonder about this one - why is he saying vote Nov 6th?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ridley/ridley101104.html

OnlineInvestorsNews Volume M9-12, October, 2004
www.jameswinston.com
Posted October 11, 2004

Crude futures close above $51 for the first time ever on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November crude rose $1.18 to close at $51.09 a barrel, eclipsing the previous closing record of $50.12 seen on Friday. Lingering production delays in the Gulf of Mexico, tension in Nigeria, and uncertainty ahead of Wednesday's U.S. petroleum supply updates fueled the rally. -CBS Marketwatch, October 5th, 2004

One of the optimum strategies of becoming a good investor is knowing in advance how global political agendas will shape the market in the coming months and years ahead. When George W. Bush was first elected president, I knew and publicly announced defense, gold, and oil stocks would rise.

I also knew the invasion of Iraq was on the drawing board, and I will remind you, this was before George W. Bush took power and before the tragic events of 9/11.

I'm certainly not a great psychic or political scientist - I just read the game plan in advance. The agenda was clearly spelled out back in 1997 by a group who created the Project for the New American Century (PNAC). This organization of neoconservatives includes a number of current White House insiders including Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Richard Perle, and Paul Wolfowitz.

The PNAC believe the United States needs to take greater measures to assert its dominance as a world leader. Their belief is that by taking a more liberal or diplomatic stance, the United States and the world at large will not progress and benefit from globalization in our time. Consequently taking more active, and if need be, more forceful roles in world affairs, the objectives of attaining a new world order can be reached.

more...

[KoKo]

36. It's an odd article. Some mistakes (typo's?) which isn't unusual these

days. It reads in part like a DU assessment of 9/11 theories about LIHOP/MHOP then sounds a little like a "resigned" approval of what Bush/Cheney did...but not quite feeling comfortable with their not telling the truth as he sees it about "War for Oil" and then ends with voting on Nov. 6th?

BTW, there was an article about Iraq having a huge "untapped oil field which sanctions wouldn't allow them to develop way back when we invaded. Then another article I read (sorry, don't have links for either)which said that Iraq's undeveloped oil was turning out to be "overstated" by Saddam and those who had assessed it. Sort of like those "overstated or non-existent WMD where either Saddam thought he had them or Chalabi overstated it all.

If Cheney's "lock down" on the secret Energy Meetings were all about the plan to invade Iraq for oil...it would make sense. But, either Iraq has this oil as "low hanging fruit" or it doesn't.

Given what we've seen of the f**k ups by this administration, I would bet that it might not have the oil that was thought to be there. And, since we had propped Saddam for years, why didn't we just negotiate with him for his oil? He hates Saudi Arabia and would have probably been happy to deal with us as he had in the past, until we started to bomb him and sanction him. Surely a more amicable way of getting Iraq oil if there's so much there, could have been worked out?

The more I read the less I trust what I read these days....Where is there any truth? There was more to Iraq than oil or they could have found a better way to go after it. Or, perhaps it was the combination of PNAC philosophy of making Israel safer, bringing Democracy to the ME AND Oil. So they thought: Why not kill three birds with one stone by invading?

Problem was...they lied about all of it to the American people.

[KoKo]

63. 54 I'm going to "steal" this article and throw it out on "Editorial Forum"

and credit you..It's so interesting in a way...think it needs more discussion?? At least some folks might want to see it whether they "discuss it" or not...

Anyway...I took it. :D...

[UpInArms]

37. 12:15 EST numbers and blather (paint drying)

Dow 10,072.89 +17.69 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,922.85 +2.88 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,122.86 +0.72 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.133% +0.000

NYSE Volume 429,717,000
Nasdaq Volume 571,419,000

12:00PM: In what has amounted to a quiet and uneventful morning of trade, the major indices have managed to tack up modest gains... A rebound effort following last week's drubbing has been behind most of the buying, as hard-hit sectors such as biotech, retail, and brokerage have recovered handily today... There has been, however, little conviction on the part of buyers as advancers and decliners have basically matched each other at the NYSE and Nasdaq...

Part of the lack of enthusiasm stems from the low trading volumes - today marks Columbus Day, which the treasury market has off - and the bearish nature of analyst commentary this morning... Deutsche Securities downgraded both Texas Instruments (TXN 21.42 -0.63) and Micron (MU 11.76 -0.25) to Sell, which has forced the semiconductor sector noticeably lower this morning... Airline has also been exceptionally weak following a Smith Barney downgrade of Northwest Airlines (NWAC 7.67 -0.29) to Sell from Hold... A final factor that has held buyers back today has been the still high price of crude oil, which has not deviated far from Friday's record close ($53.31/bbl)...

Fighting in Nigeria and elevated natural gas prices have warded off sellers in futures contracts, although sellers have emerged in the energy stocks themselves - driven by profit-taking concerns...

[54anickel]

38. 1:22 and getting "all pumped up" Blatherer still out to lunch

Dow 10,088.09 +32.89 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,924.77 +4.80 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,124.46 +2.32 (+0.21%)
10-yr Bond 4.133% +0.000
30-yr Bond 4.906% +0.004
NYSE Volume 532,961,000
Nasdaq Volume 694,118,000

12:30PM: Market continues to keep its head above water as buyers retain selective interest in stocks... Health care, retail, financial, and industrial have been the most popular groups for buyers as investors respond to their recent weakness... Meanwhile, sectors that have shown relative strength in past weeks - such as gold and transportation - have been the target of sellers... All in all, there appears to be a sector rotation taking place which has kept the market at a standstill most of the day... A lack of meaningful earnings report or economic data has also stifled activity... NYSE Adv/Dec 1500/1548, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1465/1397

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1509 (46%) 1528 (49%)
Declines 1590 (48%) 1381 (45%)
Unchanged 164 (5%) 151 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 221 (44%) 289 (43%)
Down Vol* 269 (53%) 360 (54%)
Unch. Vol* 12 (2%) 17 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 68 63
New Lo's 24 47

[KoKo]

39. I guess all those "little problems" of Merck and Chiron have brought in

the "buyers to the health care stocks." Bad News is Good News in Bush Economy. 27,000 Heart Attacks and bacteria in Flu Vaccine is seen as an "opportunity to buy."

Well...I suppose "population reduction" is good. Fewer consumers to use our resources. (an attempt at "dark humor") Ugh....

[UpInArms]

40. OPEC unable to influence market as oil prices scale new heights: analysts

http://www.turkishpress.com/turkishpress/news.asp?ID=30441

LONDON, Oct 11 (AFP) - The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries says it is doing everything possible to help cool record high oil prices but its inability to meet markets' wishes reduces its credibility and influence, analysts said Monday.

Oil ministers of Gulf monarchies assured markets Sunday that they would produce enough crude to meet soaring global demand, a move they insisted would force down prices.

But investors shrugged off the pledge and world oil prices were left to surge to new record high points Monday, nearing 54 dollars in New York, amid strike action in major crude producers Nigeria and Norway.

"What they (OPEC) say over the next few days is not going to make any difference," Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Sieminski said.

"What matters is adding capacity which takes months and getting inventories built up which takes weeks. OPEC's extra capacity is essentially zero at the moment, there is no extra capacity."

...more...

[Petrodollar Warfare]

41. BTW: Speaking of oil, Iran is about to go full monte "petroeuro"...

..here's an exert from my essay over in the Editorial Section...just thought folks here might be interested in what I see on the horizen....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x78384

One of the Federal Reserve’s nightmares may begin to unfold in March 2005, when it appears international buyers will have a choice of buying a barrel of oil for $50 dollars on the NYMEX and IPE - or purchase a barrel of oil for €40 euros via the Iranian bourse. Assuming of course that the euro maintains its current 20% appreciated value relative to the dollar - and assuming that some sort of "intervention" is not undertaken against Iran. The upcoming bourse will introduce petrodollar versus petroeuro currency hedging, and fundamentally new dynamics to the biggest market in the world - global oil and gas trades.

During an important speech in April 2002, Mr. Javad Yarjani, an OPEC executive, described three pivotal events that would facilitate an OPEC transition to euros. <10> He stated this would be based on (1) if and when Norway's Brent crude is re-dominated in euros, (2) if and when the U.K. adopts the euro, and (3) whether or not the euro gains parity valuation relative to the dollar, and the E.U.’s proposed expansion plans were successful. (Note: Both of the later two criteria have transpired: the euro’s valuation has been above the dollar since late 2002, and the euro-based E.U. enlarged in May 2004 from 12 to 22 countries).

"...The implementation of the proposed Iranian oil bourse (exchange) in 2005 – if successful and utilizes the euro as its oil transaction currency standard – essentially negates the necessity of the previous two criteria as described by Mr. Yarjani regarding the solidification of a “petroeuro” system for international oil trades.

The immediate question for Americans? Will the neoconservatives attempt to intervene covertly in Iran before March 2005 in an effort to prevent the formation of a euro-denominated crude oil pricing mechanism?...

[ozymandius]

43. Bet on this -

Whatever is left of the Bush administration in 2005 will be calling for another immediate pre-emptive attack on Iran.

No matter the perverse logic, neocons will want to shed blood over this.

[UpInArms]

44. see the first article in the dollar watch today

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=897042&mesg_id=897072&page=

regarding the yen and the euro - lots of talk about distancing from the US $ in there

[54anickel]

45. America's foes prepare for a monetary jihad

http://www.newstatesman.com/site.php3?newTemplate=NSArticle_NS&newDisplayURN=200410040024

snip>

It is not just the federal government that is in trouble. When adjusted for inflation, the wage for the average American male working full-time has fallen over the past 30 years; and, because of that, five times as many mothers - even those with young children - must now work to make a decent living wage. Not since the Depression have Americans saved so little and, at the same time as running down their rainy-day money, been so neck-deep in debt. By 2003, total debt had soared to $37 trillion; that's $128,560 for every man, woman and child in the country. Some of that debt has been racked up on mass retail therapy (Americans love to say "when the going gets tough, the tough go shopping"), but a lot of it has been the inevitable result of the Average American Joe struggling to make ends meet.

The richest nation on earth is living way beyond its means, and yet the Bush administration blithely continues to spend. It takes no steps to rein in the deficit - sometimes, indeed, it seems that the deeper the deficit, the more reckless the administration becomes. No other nation on earth can behave this way - in every other case, governments know that if their deficits run out of control, they will be "punished" by the market: investors will lose confidence, interest rates will have to be raised to attract capital, financing the deficit will become more expensive, and a vicious spiral will be in place. Why, then, can the US run a deficit of more than 5 per cent of its gross domestic product and still manage to attract $4bn a day at interest rates of only 1.75 per cent?

snip>

But the US has a stick to add to the carrot: since the end of the Second World War, it has had the unique privilege of "owning" the world's reserve currency - the notes and coins used for trade and investment more than any other currency for 60 years. This confers unimaginable advantages. America is able to ignore the discipline of having to balance its books because, if it runs out of money and can't find anyone to bail it out, it can simply print dollars, inflating away the value of its debt and destroying the value of the assets held by its creditors. In other words, it can threaten financial blackmail.

snip>

Rejection of the dollar is increasingly being used as an act of political aggression, and nowhere more acutely than in oil-producing countries. The trailblazer was none other than Saddam Hussein who, in 2000, announced that Iraq would henceforth make all its oil trades in euros, a decision that conspiracy theorists - and not a few eminent Middle Eastern experts - say triggered the US invasion. The United States derives substantial benefits from the dollar being the established currency of the oil industry. Because most countries import oil, they must maintain reserves in dollars to pay for it - two-thirds of the world's currency reserves are kept in dollars. This is a major factor upholding the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency; a switch out of dollars in the oil industry would be a major assault on the currency's pre-eminence.

In April 2003, Indonesia's state oil company, Pertamina, said it was considering using the euro for its oil and gas trades. Even more significantly, in October last year President Vladimir Putin hinted that Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, might switch to euros. A Russian move would be enough to tip the balance for other major oil producers. As Arab disapproval of the US war in Iraq has mounted, so a consensus for switching out of dollars has been building; Opec has openly discussed the option and even Saudi Arabia, once America's staunchest Middle Eastern ally, is reported to be considering rejecting the dollar. For now, the euro is the most viable alternative; in future, it could be the Islamic dinar or, far more likely, a new Asian currency.

more...

[UpInArms]

46. hey 54anickel, did you see the post I made yesterday

regarding refinancing?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x895661

[54anickel]

51. Yeah, actually I caught it this morning. Sad story, and you gotta love

the "evil banker" response, "Nobody was holding a gun to his head". Must be one of them compassionate conservatives.

[UpInArms]

52. the justice department investigator must have had a really bad feeling

A few weeks later, in early March, he made a last call for help. He phoned a lawyer, and the lawyer contacted former colleagues at the state justice department and told them that Mr. Knox had a strong case. When an investigator there could not reach Mr. Knox, she phoned the police. They found his body in the car.

so the banker was right, no gun - but death comes in so many handy forms /sarcasm

[ozymandius]

42. Good afternoon folks. Here's some blather and numbers for you.

2:35
Dow 10,087.06 +31.86 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,927.99 +8.02 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,125.62 +3.48 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.133% 0.00
NYSE Volume 663,182,000
Nasdaq Volume 836,193,000


U.S. Stocks Ahead as Earnings Awaited

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were higher on Monday, as investors were optimistic that corporate earnings reports may come in better than expected, but relentlessly high crude oil prices reined in advances.

U.S. bond markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday on Monday so trade was thin and corporate and economic news was light.

But the remainder of the week will be busy as the third-quarter earnings reporting season moves into swing, with reports from a number of major companies including Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC - news) and Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO - news) on Tuesday, and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC - news) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C - news) on Thursday.

-cut-

"People are looking for news to pull us out of what happened last week," Robert Drust, managing director of listed trading regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan. "You've had a lot of outside factors like the election, gas prices and what is going on overseas, so the earnings are going to be a refreshing item to look at."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[UpInArms]

49. 3:38 EST numbers and blather (looking up!)

Dow 10,095.54 +40.34 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,929.02 +9.05 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,125.43 +3.29 (+0.29%)

3:00PM: Buyers remain an active bunch - focusing their efforts on tech as the Nasdaq sets a new session high... Gains, however, have been limited to +0.4% for the Nasdaq as traders - in general - continue to trade with a defensive mentality... The market has been extremely choppy over the past month, and with volumes so low, the indices are arguably prone to wide swings... Thus, advances that come without full sector participation or bullish breadth figures should be viewed with a grain of salt... So far, none of today's upticks can qualify under those conditions...NYSE Adv/Dec 1658/1526, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1609/1370

2:30PM: The indices continue to trade in moderately higher territroy, boosted by a semionductor sector that has turned positive... Software and networking are some of the other technology groups that have also attracted buyers and supported the Nasdaq's advance... As for the blue chips, buying in banking, drug, and retail have offset selling in energy and airline... As a result, up volume is now outrunning down volume at the NYSE and Nasdaq...NYSE Adv/Dec 1652/1500, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1617/1340

[UpInArms]

48. Crude up for a fifth session, closes at another record ($53.64)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38271.6211574074-823256036&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures climbed near $54 a barrel to mark a fifth-straight record close in New York, supported by the slow resumption of operations at a key Gulf of Mexico oil port, a strike in Nigeria, and ongoing tax woes at Russia's Yukos. November crude closed at $53.64 a barrel, up 33 cents for the day to log a new record closing level. The session's peak of $53.80 is also an intraday record.

[54anickel]

55. Senate approves tax relief bill for manufacturers (Done deal)

http://www.columbiatribune.com/2004/Oct/20041011News013.asp

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Senate today passed a far-reaching, $136 billion corporate tax package that cuts taxes for businesses ranging from film companies to bow-and-arrow makers while closing tax loopholes and bringing U.S. exporters in line with international trade rules.

With the 69-17 vote, the legislation that was two years in the making and required a rare weekend session in the Senate to complete, goes to President George W. Bush for his signature.

"About 200,000 American manufacturers will receive a benefit to help create jobs," said Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont. :eyes:

snip>

The bill includes $76.5 billion in new tax relief for the manufacturing sector, which was broadly defined to include oil and gas producers, architectural and engineering firms, and film and music companies.

more...

[54anickel]

56. Chavez Announces that Venezuela will Raise Oil Production Royalties

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news.php?newsno=1382

Caracas, October 11, 2004—During his weekly television program Alô Presidente, President Chavez announced that oil companies that were paying royalties of between 0% and 1% in the Orinoco Oil Belt for extracting extra heavy crude, would be raised to 16.6%, in accordance with Venezuela’s Hydrocarbons Law of 2001.

Chavez made this announcement from an oil refinery in Puerto La Cruz, on the Venezuelan coast, where his television program was being broadcast this week.

Chavez said, “there will no longer be free petroleum … There is no reason that they should continue to enjoy” this clause for exceptions in the oil law. The oil law allowed exceptions for extraordinary circumstances that “no longer exist, if they ever existed,” added Chavez.

snip>

According to Chavez and to the Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela has been loosing $1.2 billion dollars of revenue per year due to the low level of royalties for oil production in the Orinoco Oil Belt. The new income due to the increase in royalties would go straight towards social programs. “This is going straight to the state because this is the money of the people and it is to be distributed among the neediest,” said Chavez.

more...

[54anickel]

61. Gadhafi Prize to Chavez

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/10/12/255.html

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Libya on Sunday awarded its annual Moammar Gadhafi human rights prize to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez for resisting "imperialism" and being a champion of the poor.

A citation accompanying the award, named after Libya's leader, was read by a Libyan delegation attending a live television and radio show hosted by Chavez.

It praised the Venezuelan leader's "brave heart, intelligent mind, eloquent oratory and firm hand."

Populist Chavez, who has accused the U.S. government of trying to overthrow him, calls his left-wing government a revolution that tries to help the poor by providing them with free health and education programs.

snip>

Previous winners of the prize, which has been awarded each year since 1989, include Cuban President Fidel Castro and former South African President Nelson Mandela.

[pelagius]

64. Can Chavez Survive this Move?

According to Chavez and to the Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela has been loosing $1.2 billion dollars of revenue per year due to the low level of royalties for oil production in the Orinoco Oil Belt. The new income due to the increase in royalties would go straight towards social programs. “This is going straight to the state because this is the money of the people and it is to be distributed among the neediest,” said Chavez.

I'm so cynical these days, that it would not surprise me if Chavez meets an untimely end over this.

Sorry. I'll try to find some antidepressants.

[UpInArms]

60. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,081.97 +26.77 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,928.76 +8.79 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,124.39 +2.25 (+0.20%

Close: Stocks attempted to bounce back from their beating last week, although gains remained modest from an absolute perspective... An A/D line that ended split at the NYSE and Nasdaq and a market advance that never won broad-based participation held the indices back throughout the day... A fifth straight record high for the price of crude oil - up 1% to $53.64/bbl - was another obstacle for market bulls... The commodity continued its unabated climb as fighting in Nigeria intensified and natural gas prices rose to five-month highs...

Energy shares, surprisingly, did not find a bid on the news and instead traded lower as investors took profits... Airline and basic material also joined energy in the red... Biotech, brokerage, retail, and industrial, however, led the market's advance and found support in semiconductor after it reverse mid-day losses... The latter resulted from a Deutsche Securities downgrade of both Texas Instruments (TXN 21.89 -0.16) and Micron (MU 11.90 -0.11) to Sell...

Tomorrow, the market should see trading activity noticeably pick up (today was extremely light on account of the Columbus Day holiday) as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 55.36 +0.04) and Merrill Lynch (MER 51.00 -0.12) are slated to report before the open...

[54anickel]

62. When Currency Empires Fall

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/persaud/persaud101204.html

The United States today, as Britain before, has benefited greatly from having the world's reserve currency as its local currency. This has allowed America to spend 22% more than its income over the past five years. No other country could do that but having the reserve currency means you can write checks and nobody cashes them.

But reserve currencies come and go. Over the past two and a half thousand years there have been over a dozen reserve currencies that no longer exist. Sterling lost its status in the first half of the 20th century, the dollar will lose its status in the first half of this century. The beginning of the end for the dollar will be triggered by an inevitable decision by the Chinese to switch from a dollar peg to a free float - sometime in the next decade.

Losing reserve currency status will lead to a series of economic and political crises in the United States. The world's new reserve currency is an unlikely fellow. It is not the euro and today it is not even convertible. You guess it.

One of the nice things about being a currency forecaster is that expectations of you are very low. Moderate success is greeted with great surprise. But there are a few things which are more certain than others.

For example, at any one time, there tends to be a single dominant currency in the financial world, not two or more, just one. Some people believe that while the euro may not topple the dollar, it will at least share the spoils of financial hegemony. History suggests not. In the currency markets the spoils go to the victor, alone, they are not shared. Either the euro succeeds internationally, or it does not. (Which, least I anger my Europhile friends, does not make it a failure, just not an international currency widely accepted outside the euro-area. Many countries have credible, stable, currencies that are not international currencies, such as Canada, the UK, Japan and Sweden.)

The spoils of reserve currency status

more...